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Skullzrulerz

Possible storm 'Bertha'

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Bertha getting close, looks a bit more organised at 2pm

 

http://extweb.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/images/msg/HRV.jpg

 

The cirrus is spreading in from the west here now.

 

A lot of high cloud also over the coast here which appears to me to be the forerunner of this storm. Still very bright at the moment though.

Hanging baskets now in the greenhouse and any really nice blooms in the garden have been picked and making a lovely show in the house.

Thanks for my bouquets Big Bertha. ;)

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Is it just me who is surprised that there isn't a amber warning from the MO. There isn't even a warning out for wind, let alone a amber warning...

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Is it just me who is surprised that there isn't a amber warning from the MO. There isn't even a warning out for wind, let alone a amber warning...

 There should be a least a yellow warning for wind for Wales at least since it may be where the strongest winds may be.

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 There should be a least a yellow warning for wind for Wales at least since it may be where the strongest winds may be.

According this mornings nmm the winds look well below the warning levels. Later off the north east coast they could reach into the 60's. If they put a warning out it will be for that region. Of course next model run this could well be different.

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Is it just me who is surprised that there isn't a amber warning from the MO. There isn't even a warning out for wind, let alone a amber warning...

 

They're probably waiting until they're more certain of the track.

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They're probably waiting until they're more certain of the track.

 

There about around 12 hours if not less until the storm hits.

 

I think the track is a least semi-nailed down by now.

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Latest on the radio is that the storm is likely to be much less windy than previously thought, with winds on par with normal summer winds (whatever that means) Thoughts?

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There about around 12 hours if not less until the storm hits.

 

I think the track is a least semi-nailed down by now.

 

Yes I know, but I've noticed previously they tend to wait until quite late on.

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Ah, no it will be higher than 40 mph trust me.

Be quite surprised if I see a gust over 40mph here.

There about around 12 hours if not less until the storm hits.

 

I think the track is a least semi-nailed down by now.

The low will cross Wales tomorrow morning heading NE thats quite certain now.

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GFS now taking a path similar to the UKMO/FAX from yesterday. ECM was also a little deeper and further north this morning so maybe a path is becoming more certain, SW England up through the centre of the country and exiting off the coast of NE England.

Posted Image

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Latest on the radio is that the storm is likely to be much less windy than previously thought, with winds on par with normal summer winds (whatever that means) Thoughts?

Possibly correct. The latest forecast updates have lowered wind speeds for coastal areas near me.I think what this boils down to, is outdoor events as it is Summer. It isn't a vicious storm but it could be troublesome or even a risk to lives if you have open air events going on.

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How far ahead of her arrival to ones destination should you start to feel the effects such as increasing wind etc?

 

Wind is quite gusty hear but guess that's a separate thing?

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Is it just me who is surprised that there isn't a amber warning from the MO. There isn't even a warning out for wind, let alone a amber warning...

 

 There should be a least a yellow warning for wind for Wales at least since it may be where the strongest winds may be.

 

No disrespect intended to anyone but I'm pretty confident that the full time paid professionals at the Met Office with all data at their fingertips are in a far better position to call this, as opposed to a few of us amateurs on an internet website ?

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 There should be a least a yellow warning for wind for Wales at least since it may be where the strongest winds may be.

Really? Not sure the wind warrants a warning here, rain perhaps.

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Latest on the radio is that the storm is likely to be much less windy than previously thought, with winds on par with normal summer winds (whatever that means) Thoughts?

We need to be wary of more typical summer developments, so perhaps embedded thunderstorms or a squall line could develop which could bring torrential rain, hail and strong gusts of wind. This is probably the main issue with this system.

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I think what this boils down to, is outdoor events as it is Summer. It isn't a vicious storm but it could be troublesome or even a risk to lives if you have open air events going on.

I think this about sums up my thoughts Mapantz. Troublesome given that it's a weekend in the peak holiday season, which is why I think the Met Office warnings to be aware are pretty much spot on so far.

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After reading the most recent posts and seeing the latest models, I'm not feeling that great about tomorrow. I could probably reach 35 mph at best which before I thought nearly 50 mph. Anyway, no more looking on the charts now and I'm just going to see what happens. Good luck everyone.

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Afternoon all ,iv just had a look at radar and satellite and it looks to me that our beloved Bertha is going to arrive a little earlier ,any thoughts from other posters .every possibility that some other warnings .downgrade or upgrade could be added this evening ,still an interesting period coming up .

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So for laymen (and women) like me, what sort of sequence of weather are we likely to see as the storm comes through. For example possible hail and T&L at the front, followed by heavy rain and wind, followed by etc etc. Or is it a case of no sort of sequence and just one big pot luck mess?

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Hey all. Lovely day today hard to believe we will be having an unwelcome guest Bertha or rather some of her tail feathers at our door tomorrow.

I don't know but my gut feel ( yes I know this isn't scientific) is that it will be just a wee blustery summer day that we have all had in the past, with some heavy showers. Maybe a little rumble or two - Nothing more nothing less. And over in the couple of hours. In fact recent storms of late will feel more threatening.

I am hopefully to be proved wrong. It is only I am anticipating that oh was that it response by a few.

The warnings are out for heavy rain which seems to be best n safe cover all bet. Either way I intend to stay n read my book.. At long last! Only taken the last day of my week off to get some me time!! Lol.

Edited by Polar Bear

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After reading the most recent posts and seeing the latest models, I'm not feeling that great about tomorrow. I could probably reach 35 mph at best which before I thought nearly 50 mph. Anyway, no more looking on the charts now and I'm just going to see what happens. Good luck everyone.

As much as I believe many of us here on nw are particularly interested in severe weather, I for one would be happy to see the UK escape the worst of it, coming as it does at the weekend in the peak holiday season. A lot of families will be out and about, many of them on their annual holidays and a fair percentage of them will be down in the West Country.

 

I had the misfortune to be on a camping holiday in that part of the country with my very young family when the Fastnet storm hit in August 1979. It was horrendous and completely wrecked what was our only holiday in years. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

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As cs has already mentioned the 12 GFS is more or less taking the METO fax route. Already lowering altostratus and stratus here.

 

0010 Low 996mb about 200miles WSW Scilly Isles

 

0610 North Devon 991mb

 

1210 Midlands 989mb

 

1810 East of Edinburgh in North Sea 985mb

 

EDIT

 

I echo the sentiments in the post above. Fortunately doesn't look that bad at all now although some places may get some heavy rain.

Edited by knocker

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