Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Skullzrulerz

Possible storm 'Bertha'

Recommended Posts

Some models are picking up that Bertha is set to hit the UK around the end of the weekend or next Monday.

 

However the models are going to a massive storm all the way to a no event happing.

So really we shouldn't make predications until at least Friday.

 

Before that through there will be wet weather to do deal with for the weekend.

 

So what do you think will happen?

 

Note:The only reason why I have done this is because the Bertha could become a dangerous or big event,so it stands out with its own thread/topic.

Edited by Skulltheruler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know if this will cause a tidal surge again.? Especially down the east coast. Thanks in advance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know if this will cause a tidal surge again.? Especially down the east coast. Thanks in advance

Sorry I think this would be hard to pin down at the moment and also I am not sure 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry I think this would be hard to pin down at the moment and also I am not sure 

There would be Spring Tides then, but I can't see the low being powerful enough to create an issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can remember someone mentioning the sea temps being warm already could this increase our chances of a tropical storm or hurricane nearby?

Edited by Greenday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm expecting something similar along the lines of extra-tropicalstorm Katia in 2011, with plenty of sustained wind gusts over 50mph but it's moisture core pretty much driven out. With Katia I still remember being blown like a hairdryer across the local hilltops, quite eery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most models seem confident in sending Bertha over to the UK by the end of the week.

 

GFS 0z

 

This morning it showed a deep low for this time of year down to 975mb passing over the North West of Scotland,

 

post-6686-0-22747900-1407234422_thumb.pn

 

GFS 6z

 

It's just updated there it's moved the low pressure system South and at the same time weakened it up to 986mb now. The path it takes is over Ireland into Northern England.

 

post-6686-0-20362600-1407234580_thumb.pn

 

The 6z shows heavy rain affecting most of the UK and Ireland from 2am on Sunday to 8pm along with gale to severe gale force winds,

 

post-6686-0-85229000-1407234695_thumb.pn

 

ECM 0z

 

It has the low to the South West of England at 2am on Sunday which is a bit further South than the GFS. The ECM has it down to 993mb although not too deep the isobars do look a bit tightly packed enough to bring plenty of rain and winds across Wales and England,

 

post-6686-0-15236500-1407234938_thumb.pn

 

UKMO 0z

 

It seems the least interested it does show a weak low taking a similar path to the ECM but out of the main three models it would bring the least disruptive weather.

 

Here's a comparison between them,

 

post-6686-0-35816800-1407235138_thumb.pn

 

Sea Conditions

 

Using Magic Seaweed which uses the GFS data so it hasn't updated to the 06z run yet but it currently shows a swell around 30ft to the North West of Ireland, this is really high for this time of year something you would expect in the middle of winter.

 

post-6686-0-50784200-1407235392_thumb.pn

 

Overall,

 

The GFS from last night has changed the track of Bertha to a more Southerly route which puts it in agreement with the ECM and UKMO's idea of the track. How deep it will go is still up to debate at the moment it could be bad enough to cause flooding and give severe gales to many parts of the UK or as some models suggest it might not really come to much at all. It's still 5 days away and we won't get a proper picture until about Thursday on what is likely to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't disregard the GFS as such but I also wouldn't be keen on soley using it.

The GFS is keen on that northerly track, so strong winds would cover a wide area. The ECM runs the track more to the south, less in the way of winds but more in the way of rain, and even the possibility of a cracking thunderstorm potential.

I question the GFS because we're in Summer still, the models don't know that of course but the GFS does tend to push the boat out with Atlantic systems- with the way recent synoptics have been occurring, I think it will dive south but still having an interesting impact on the weather.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Metcheck already have an advanced warning out for this storm......They said that if the storm produced 70mph gusts it would be the equivalent of a 120mph storm in January because the tree's etc are still in full leaf.  I remember the storm we had last October 2013 when the trees were still in leaf and being surprised when I checked the peak gusts for  my area on a weather website as it was like 63mph but felt much stronger with all the tree's swinging around like crazy....

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/warnings.asp

Edited by TwisterGirl81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Metcheck already have an advanced warning out for this storm......They said that if the storm produced 70mph gusts it would be the equivalent of a 120mph storm in January because the tree's etc are still in full leaf.  I remember the storm we had last October 2013 when the trees were still in leaf and being surprised when I checked the peak gusts for  my area on a weather website as it was like 63mph but felt much stronger with all the tree's swinging around like crazy....

 

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/warnings.asp

Yes, that is a somewhat scaremongering statement they've made. My thoughts on a storm gusting 70mph now would be of interest in an unusual summer gale, but if told I was to be facing 120mph gusts in January, there would be a reasonable amount of fear (actually a lot of fear!)  :shok:

 

I understand that there would be a lot of tree damage from a 70mph gusting storm in August, but a 120mph storm would cause a lot of structural damage, with or without tree involvement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, that is a somewhat scaremongering statement they've made. My thoughts on a storm gusting 70mph now would be of interest in an unusual summer gale, but if told I was to be facing 120mph gusts in January, there would be a reasonable amount of fear (actually a lot of fear!)  :shok:

 

I understand that there would be a lot of tree damage from a 70mph gusting storm in August, but a 120mph storm would cause a lot of structural damage, with or without tree involvement.

 

That's very true, interesting model watching coming up and curtain twitching :)  I have work on Sunday as overtime from 14:00 - 22:00, starting to regret saying I would work it now.

 

What's the worse cause scenario with this storm, what sort of intensity could it go to?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just think of this everytime I hear the name:

 

 

I have nothing else constructive to add :D

Love it! Takes me back a few years!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NOAA NWS Ocean National Hurricane Center's take on TS Bertha.

 

"The 1500 UTC advisory from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center indicates Tropical Storm Bertha will transition within the next 36 hours to a post-tropical storm force low while moving through the OPC's Offshore Waters and High Seas Area. Bertha is then expected to weaken slightly to a gale force low as it accelerates while turning towards the east. Bertha is forecast to reach the English Channel by Sunday as a 45 knot (52 mph or 83 km/h) gale force low. As a reminder, a storm force low is defined as winds from 48 to 63 knots (55 to 73 mph or 89 to 117 km/h), and a gale force low is defined as winds from 34 to 47 knots (39 to 54 mph or 63 to 87 km/h).

What does it mean that "Bertha will transition to a post tropical low"? It means that Bertha will no longer be driven by organized convection as it becomes embedded in the frontal boundary to the north. Post-tropical Bertha will then be driven by vorticity advection from a mid-level (500 mb) trough, and also by thermal advection. Thermal advection is defined as (geostrophic) flow across a region with a temperature (density or thickness) contrast. Frontal boundaries typically denote the leading edge of an air mass or temperature contrast."

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

 

Posted Image

Edited by Chris K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The likely tracks of Bertha

 

Posted Image

 

And the current estimated timings

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM has been keen on the storm tracking further south across the English channel and exiting into the north sea tonight should be intresting to see what the ECM has in store next model watching is great when there is so much uncertainty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NOAA NWS Ocean National Hurricane Center's take on TS Bertha.

 

"The 1500 UTC advisory from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center indicates Tropical Storm Bertha will transition within the next 36 hours to a post-tropical storm force low while moving through the OPC's Offshore Waters and High Seas Area. Bertha is then expected to weaken slightly to a gale force low as it accelerates while turning towards the east. Bertha is forecast to reach the English Channel by Sunday as a 45 knot (52 mph or 83 km/h) gale force low. As a reminder, a storm force low is defined as winds from 48 to 63 knots (55 to 73 mph or 89 to 117 km/h), and a gale force low is defined as winds from 34 to 47 knots (39 to 54 mph or 63 to 87 km/h).

What does it mean that "Bertha will transition to a post tropical low"? It means that Bertha will no longer be driven by organized convection as it becomes embedded in the frontal boundary to the north. Post-tropical Bertha will then be driven by vorticity advection from a mid-level (500 mb) trough, and also by thermal advection. Thermal advection is defined as (geostrophic) flow across a region with a temperature (density or thickness) contrast. Frontal boundaries typically denote the leading edge of an air mass or temperature contrast."

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

 

Posted Image

 

and in simple English for those not versed in technical meteorology

Bertha is most likely to arrive close to the UK near the bottom of the upper trough shown on most upper weather charts either on Net Wx or other centres. It is highly unlikely to be seen arriving much further north, say the Iceland area, much more likely somewhere bewteen about 48N and 52N off the west of UK/Europe.

Whether it will then re-deepen is for closer times scales on the models to show along with its subsequent track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted Image

Those winds for the east of the uk. (Sunday 9th August)

 

Edit: I don't know why the picture is so tiny. :(

Edited by Skulltheruler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some models are picking up that Bertha is set to hit the UK around the end of the weekend or next Monday.

 

However the models are going to a massive storm all the way to a no event happing.

So really we shouldn't make predications until at least Friday.

 

Before that through there will be wet weather to do deal with for the weekend.

 

So what do you think will happen?

 

Note:The only reason why I have done this is because the Bertha could become a dangerous or big event,so it stands out with its own thread/topic.

 

Not a new forum then? funniest post in Feb, 'there will be a new forum for this weekend's storm'

 

hope ECM though on right track here, seems to make nothing of bertha, although is that bertha tue into wed? or another storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...