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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


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Interesting couple of days coming up for places  East Devon, Dorset area and the Hampshire area too. Today looks more the Dorset area will have the better chance of seeing storms. Bit gutted because my mate is going on a little storm chase from the IOW, and these the times when id go with him :( but am stuck in Guernsey. 

Got some light showers here at the moment but nothing else really.

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those north sea cape levels start near us if winds blow in from sea could get something if things develop

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Day off work today, can only say the storm was superb, constant rolling thunder and so much rain, the drops were the size of a 5p coin, plenty of lightning too, really pleased as we normally miss out when everyone else gets it, and the fact it's moved west to east means north cornwall is now enjoying this superb storm.

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Nice looking storm in Devon earlier by the looks of it, well done who ever was under it :)

We had a heavy shower around 11am this morning, but that was it and it was very Elevated too.

Looks a decent chance back home on the IOW tomorrow Afternoon! Wish I was there!

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makes up for last weekend I suppose

I don't mean this is actually you but..When I read this line I can imagine it being said by Marvin the manic depressant robot from the Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy lol. (Original version).'Ohh bring it leave it l think I'll turn myself, off'Now I gotta bring this back on topic, I'll edit in a mo..Edit: looks like the continent and the southwest have the potential tomorrow. That'll do :-D Edited by Greenday
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Actually I may have overlooked the risk of a thunderstorm tomorrow morning for east anglia as long as something can set it off. Not looking like anything severe mind.

I noticed a convergence forecast over west Scotland midday. Not lots of cape though.

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Storm & Convective Forecast

 

post-1052-0-96435000-1406277985_thumb.pn

 

Issued 2014-07-25 08:42:03

Valid: 25/07/2014 0900z to 26/07/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
Synopsis

A blocking area of high pressure sits to the NE of the UK on Friday, with lower pressure/geopotential heights on the periphery of the anticyclone over the near continent and also the far west. A mostly stable easterly flow will prevail across central and northeast British Isles, but an unstable flow across the S and far west of the British Isles.

 

... S ENGLAND  ...

 

Upper low over the Low Countries will spread slightly colder mid-level temperatures and increasingly cyclonic flow across S England through the day, which will serve to steepen lapse rates here and create an increasingly unstable airmass with surface heating. GFS indicated 300-700 j/kg CAPE this afternoon, as temperatures rise to 26-27C, therefore thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon, particularly from London southwestward towards Dorset. Vertical shear is rather weak, though slow-moving nature of storms and fairly high PWAT (precipitable water) values of the airmass suggests a risk of torrential downpours producing large hourly rainfall totals, perhaps up to 20mm/per hour. So there is a risk of localised flooding. Storms should die out later this evening as diurnal heating fades.

 

... S WALES, IRELAND, W SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated thunderstorms are likely to be initiated by daytime heating and surface wind convergence this afternoon across the above areas. Any storms will be slow-moving and thus capable of producing localised flooding.

Edited by Nick F
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Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Posted Imageconvmap_250714.png

 

Issued 2014-07-25 08:42:03

Valid: 25/07/2014 0900z to 26/07/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
Synopsis

A blocking area of high pressure sits to the NE of the UK on Friday, with lower pressure/geopotential heights on the periphery of the anticyclone over the near continent and also the far west. A mostly stable easterly flow will prevail across central and northeast British Isles, but an unstable flow across the S and far west of the British Isles.

 

... S ENGLAND  ...

 

Upper low over the Low Countries will spread slightly colder mid-level temperatures and increasingly cyclonic flow across S England through the day, which will serve to steepen lapse rates here and create an increasingly unstable airmass with surface heating. GFS indicated 300-700 j/kg CAPE this afternoon, as temperatures rise to 26-27C, therefore thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon, particularly from London southwestward towards Dorset. Vertical shear is rather weak, though slow-moving nature of storms and fairly high PWAT (precipitable water) values of the airmass suggests a risk of torrential downpours producing large hourly rainfall totals, perhaps up to 20mm/per hour. So there is a risk of localised flooding. Storms should die out later this evening as diurnal heating fades.

 

... S WALES, IRELAND, W SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated thunderstorms are likely to be initiated by daytime heating and surface wind convergence this afternoon across the above areas. Any storms will be slow-moving and thus capable of producing localised flooding.

 

Suppose I may watch the skies with interest today (Don't think anything will happen here myself but who knows)

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