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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


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The gods of rain dont seem to like Dronfield

Think that was an error playing it back

Intense line developing just west of Nottingham 

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The gods of rain dont seem to like Dronfield

 

More torrential rain here now! this is amazing, Distant thunder also from the South, strikes being shown near Sutton in Ashfield also to the North near Sheffield

 

What an evening this turned out to be!

 

Lol, it was like that earlier when you were getting flooded. Since then we've had a fair bit of rain, but we'll still lag behind your impressive totals. A few more rumbles of thunder in the last half hour, including just now, as the band intensified to the east. Rain easing now, and that's our lot of what has been a very impressive day!

 

Still plenty of storm action out there though, further north and down south towards Nottingham. Would get excited but it's all heading NE now, rather than NNW.

Edited by SjV
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Nothing as exciting happening down here.

I'm hoping due to the fact the majority of the storms have missed us this year, that we're going to get dumped on in the snow stakes mid winter.

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 Yep can hear it here, too. Been thundering all afternoon :D From random directions lol

Its loud and frequent here, really not much showing up on any of the detectors though so its source is a mystery! 

 

Never mind, NW ATD just updated showing a fair few strikes around Stavely area.

 

An organised line has now developed, wouldnt fancy driving up the M1 right now 

post-17481-0-89020200-1407523186_thumb.j

Edited by ChezWeather
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Its loud and frequent here, really not much showing up on any of the detectors though so its source is a mystery! 

 

Never mind, NW ATD just updated showing a fair few strikes around Stavely area.

 

An organised line has now developed, wouldnt fancy driving up the M1 right now 

Looks beautiful! Thunder if anything has got louder and more noticeable, but it's probably just me paying more attention to it, now I've had tea. 

 

Not much else out to the west and southwest, unless anything can build behind this line.

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Flash Floods..http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-28713677No telling what Sundays going to be like.. though I have my suspicions.Saturday 4th or 11th June 2009 ~ Low pressure develops over the UK ~ Now if I remember rightly, that was severe and had embedded thunderstorms with it to. 

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One or two Thundery showers here so the shield was breached. Checking the radar they developed within the shield at first so it probably got overloaded and let others in later. 16.6mm of rain.

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Almost constant thunder for about an hour when I was "sheltering" on the golf course just on the east of York. Retreated to the driving range and saw some odd lightning in the slate grey skies, like a camera going off but no fork. Next batch moving in, it's black as night and thunder getting louder

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this cambridge weather just clipping us but most will pass to the east.  Worry for east coast this massive one coming through further south this looks like might be bad for us east coasters.

 

We have had 11 mm so far nothing like worst hit 

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Just back from a stroll up the road, watched the storm move away to the east and saw 6 or 7 decent bolts, shame it wasnt night time or id have been in for a real treat!

 

All in all this has been a great evening, thundering pretty much non stop since about 3:30pm! 

Edited by ChezWeather
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Finally after threatening all day and rain on and off we have at last had some thunder! One flash 1.5 miles to the north at 21:43 but I will take it....

 

Missed everything during the last fortnight strangely and we usually do pretty well here....

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Some interesting convective potential showing on Sunday from GFS in association with the depression formed from ex-Bertha moving through. Strong jet aloft, veering wind profiles towards the surface with passage of low, 500mb dry air intrusion and several 100 j/kg CAPE in warm sector just ahead of cold front moving east = the recipe for severe thunderstorms. So potential for supercells bringing large hail, damaging convective gusts and even one or two tornadoes.

 

Slp and jet + CAPE 12z Sun:

 

post-1052-0-42499100-1407531832_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-06138100-1407531867_thumb.pn

 

relative humidity at 500hPa at 12z Sun - blue showing dry air intrusion - which will enhance convection:

 

post-1052-0-19678100-1407531930_thumb.pn

 

Lightning wizard wind shear and sig. tornado parameter charts at 09z and 12z Sun show the potential for rotating storms and tornadoes:

 

post-1052-0-81983200-1407531652_thumb.pnpost-1052-0-85872900-1407531670_thumb.pn

 

However, I am only illustrating potential, rather than making an actual forecast, given uncertainty over the track of the low still. 12z ECM has the low tracking alot further south than GFS - through S England and exiting around the Wash, for example. Thus severe potential maybe confined to Sern England in this case.

Edited by Nick F
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Well I ended up seeing a storm in the end as I chased that line of storms this evening from around Alfreton to Mansfield and beyond just before it started to die away. I didn't see a lot of lightning, but a few bright flashes evident as I was driving. The main thing about it was the rainfall and how dark it was. Considering it was only around 7:30pm it was like dusk and the rainfall was incredible. I can well believe the kind of rainfall amounts that have been reported as it was coming down in absolute torrents with visibility very poor on the A38 around Sutton, despite traffic only moving at around 30-40mph.

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