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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


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Very heavy rain here with thunder and lightning, though starting to slacken off now.  The rain has been so heavy that the Environment Agency has issued a flash flood warning for parts of Louth near the Louth Canal.

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Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2014-08-08 10:44:01

Valid: 08/08/2014 1100z to 09/08/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

post-1052-0-14800000-1407494945_thumb.pn

 

Synopsis

Large upper low sits to the W/N of the UK, driving a deeply cyclonic SWly flow across the UK, parent surface low is slow moving to the NW of British Isles with a surface trough moving NE across SE Uk developing into an area of low pressure, an unstable airmass develops across central, eastern and northern areas.

 

... SE ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, N & E ENGLAND, S/W SCOTLAND ...

 

Warm air advection at lower levels and increasingly cooler mid-level air overspreading from the west from upper low – will create an unstable airmass to surface heating across the above areas. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop as a result, with t-storms already across Yorks and Lincs. Thunderstorms will become more widespread through the day. Fairly strong SWly will allow some storm organisation into clusters/multicells, capable of producing localised high rainfall totals leading to flash flooding, hail of up to 1-2cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts. These storms should clear away east later in the evening.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND ...

 

Steep lapse rates here on the edge of upper low and its cold pool, combined with some weak surface heating and forcing from occluded fronts moving in from the west, will support scattered t-storms today, storms capable of producing hail, gusty winds and localised flooding

Edited by Nick F
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Hmm something to keep us occupied, I reckon this will be a other north of Watford event. Gloomy out there and not looking particulary conductive for storms. Been quiet for a while - will it go bang? :bomb:

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Seems to be kicking off between Boston and Skegvegas, also around Huntingdon and another area near Louth, difficult to gauge storm direction thou, need some fresh lightning to get an idea......

South to north

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thanks Nick F this storm something the thunderstorms eased but the rain is bad my rain gauge in now much better shape yippee.  It almost matches the grimsby & cleethorpes from real weather to degree slightly short but we have had 25 mm/hr at one point 11.49am.   There's says 6.9 mm  so far compared to 3.9 mm on mine. 

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Actually a NNW developmental component to the East Midlands showers/ storms so Leicester may be in with a shout (SS^)

Edited by TonyH
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wondering is this the sting of the tail of bertha.

Not at all she is way away over the Atlantic still

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wondering is this the sting of the tail of bertha.

 

Nothing to do with Bertha!

 

Watching the developing showers/storms with interest this afternoon. Seem to be moving NNW, so I'll get excited if anything tracks through Leicester :D

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Nothing to do with Bertha!

 

Watching the developing showers/storms with interest this afternoon. Seem to be moving NNW, so I'll get excited if anything tracks through Leicester :D

 

thanks for that.  Seems to have stalled here on top of us

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I do have to say I was doing the dog walk at half past 5 this morning. The cloud looked pretty dark and quite evil. Hoping might get something at 1 point this afternoon

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Decent cell over Lincolnshire currently, heading in the direction of Lincoln. Another cell heading towards Manchester and a lot of cells around the North Pennines into Southern Scotland. Unfortunately nothing here or downwind to my south although it is only just gone 2pm, if nothing in this vicinity by tea time then I will be free to head out and find something.

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Just seen that I am under an Estofex level 2! We had a few introductory rumbles and some heavy rain earlier, but it's now hot and sunny but quite windy, and there are some great clouds developing. Activity is progged to go on all evening and most of the night, so this could be fun...

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