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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

    It's supposed to rain all day tomorrow in the south east!

     

    I must not be part of the South East tomorrow  :nea:

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Essex Easterly.
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I must not be part of the South East tomorrow  :nea:

     

    Posted Image

    Forecast changed a bit quick! :laugh: What happened to the possible thunder storms?

    Edited by lassie23
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    My colleague was challenging me on this - saying that tomorrow is supposed to be dry according to Netweather (that was this morning). I suspect there is something wrong with the data/date somewhere?

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    All the residual from yesterday seems to have disappeared and everywhere has stabilized. About as good as it got today.

     

    post-7331-0-30281800-1407426365_thumb.jp  post-7331-0-08615600-1407426367_thumb.jp

     

    Pictures from yesterdays storm..

     

    Picture taken from just outside Spixworth..

     

    post-7331-0-99043400-1407426594_thumb.jp

     

    Somewhere near Ranworth these pictures were taken of the clouds forming below the base..

     

    post-7331-0-84239500-1407426603_thumb.jp post-7331-0-45005000-1407426599_thumb.jp

     

    After being hit by heavy rain, hail and wind gusts we headed down the Acle straight towards Great Yarmouth following the forming gust front, slowly at first as there was probably scared driver/s ahead. It did look like a storm that people would not see often and it looked menacing and huge! Check out the hail core!

     

    post-7331-0-32550000-1407426650_thumb.jp post-7331-0-07911600-1407426641_thumb.jp post-7331-0-40666500-1407426645_thumb.jp post-7331-0-32594100-1407426654_thumb.jp

     

    post-7331-0-05478000-1407426692_thumb.jp post-7331-0-91445800-1407426695_thumb.jp

     

    post-7331-0-98173600-1407426699_thumb.jp 

     

    Edit: This picture is the actual colour and contrast of what we were seeing, the other pictures straight off the camera are a little lighter than the actual so this really does capture it nicely.

     

    post-7331-0-26881400-1407426704_thumb.jp

     

    To the south of us was another rain core although didn't look to be so intense but later it hit us on the seafront and it did have penny size hail mixed in with rain that made me worry about my windscreen, all good though and will have video of it to follow.

     

    post-7331-0-71302200-1407426708_thumb.jp

     

    At Yarmouth seafront watching the storm move away with lightning and thunder occasionally..

     

    post-7331-0-11723300-1407427584_thumb.jp post-7331-0-24875300-1407427588_thumb.jp

     

    On the way back home we stopped and took a photo of the anvil still looking good. Sorry about the slant on one of them that was my brother taking the pictures dunno why he did that.

     

    post-7331-0-54595100-1407426921_thumb.jp post-7331-0-09827900-1407426929_thumb.jp

     

    Back in Norwich under a red sunset the storm still visible..

     

    post-7331-0-19630100-1407426925_thumb.jp

     

    Fantastic experience, really enjoyed that.

    Edited by Greenday
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10203339364658353&set=o.1407218326228566&type=2&theater

     

    Short video of some worst bits (best bits) of yesterday's storm. I would have preferred to say gusts rather than gail but I seemed to latch on to saying gail.

     

    Warning, some strong language.

    Edited by Greenday
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    Wrong button sorry - deleted.

    Edited by Greenday
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

    Just looking at precipitation charts, is there a distinct chance that quite an organised convergence zone forming tomorrow through the spine of the country with the front in the west encroaching and also the mass in the SE heading N/NW?

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Going black, rain shafts too :D

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    Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey

    My colleague was challenging me on this - saying that tomorrow is supposed to be dry according to Netweather (that was this morning). I suspect there is something wrong with the data/date somewhere?

     I'm also confused. nowhere showing Rain for my area tomorrow yet others are talking about a Deluge, BBC Weather(not the most reliable i know) has a weather warning but show just light cloud all day :cc_confused:  Just wait and see what happens just like the good old days i guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

    Some great t-storm prospects for here in Limousin tomorrow, will keep you posted! Hatten the batches if needed in the UK and stay safe if ex-TS Bertha hits...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    There's a robust Cb been developing over London the past half hour or so...not particularly high topped but quite a strong quick moving updraught....UHI?

    No lightning observed

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    Does anyone know of any websites that display base velocity radar? Would be damn handy to determine windspeed and direction in storms like in the states

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

    One daily said that Bertha will bring Autumn in with it and temps down to low values for August!! And screw the "jet" up as well, but really, will Bertha be electrically active??

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

    One daily said that Bertha will bring Autumn in with it and temps down to low values for August!! And screw the "jet" up as well, but really, will Bertha be electrically active??

     

    Yeah I really want to know what the deal is with any potential electrical activity in Bertha (if it hits). Asked in two threads now and nobody's actually answered   :mellow:

     

    I just wanna know - I'm interested in how an ex-thunderstorm can not remain thundery when it's hitting a warm environment. All the ingredients seem to be there and the forecast gives 52% storm chance.

     

    Or is this just wishful thinking?

    Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    BBC and Met Office seem keen to break out thundery showers across the middle slice of the UK today, pushing east during the latter part of the day and clearing the east coast overnight. However, Estofex clearly not in agreement as only Ireland and Western Scotland in with a chance; the15% risk covers these areas, but I will come onto this shortly.

     

    NMM shows an increase in lapse rates this afternoon across a swathe of England:

     

    post-2719-0-30389800-1407475950_thumb.pn

     

    Lapse rates then increase over the SE quarter later this evening and first part of the night, although the NMM model has all precipitation moved off to the NE by this time.

     

    GFS and NMM agree on some 300-500j/kg of CAPE, so not a huge amount but should be enough to promote some storm activity this afternoon - GFS chart below:

     

    post-2719-0-59517900-1407476609_thumb.pn

     

    An interest for me is the existence of convergence zones, which could focus the heavy downpours. These are quite numerous across NW England this afternoon and then across N England and eventually NE England this evening, which ties in well with the Met Office prediction.

     

    post-2719-0-75832100-1407476247_thumb.pn  post-2719-0-70321200-1407476256_thumb.pn

     

    Euro4 precipitation looks interesting, but will it be thundery?

     

    post-2719-0-63893900-1407475968_thumb.gi

     

    Estofex thoughts (or lack of) may be down to the fact that although there will be storms around they will not be especially electrically active as CAPE/instability is rather limited. What is not limited though is the amount of moisture, with some high PWAT levels this afternoon. Given this and the slow moving nature of showers this could mean a lot of water falling in some places over a space of time.

     

    My thoughts on today are that there will be some heavy showers and thunderstorms. It's hard to pin down a highest risk area but I would say draw a line from around west London to SW Scotland and anywhere east of this. As mentioned, storms that do occur will have the potential to produce torrential downpours and the combination of slow moving downpours and merging over convergence zones may lead to a risk of flooding. Storms could just about bring a risk of hail and CG lightning, although I think the risk of these is lower and today maybe more about rain than other storm aspects with only sporadic lightning.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    I know its forecast to rain lots today but looking at the obvious charts seems to be a widespread chance of thunderstorms today but don't take my word for it im just an amateur :-D hopefully more detailed look by experienced forecasters will be posted soon.

    Edit: supacell already in there, nice one :-D

    Edited by Greenday
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

    Estofex don't seem to convinced by our chances today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    I know its forecast to rain lots today but looking at the obvious charts seems to be a widespread chance of thunderstorms today but don't take my word for it im just an amateur :-D hopefully more detailed look by experienced forecasters will be posted soon.Edit: supacell already in there, nice one :-D

     

    Thank you, although I would not call myself an experienced forecaster - more someone with a keen storm interest. I await an outlook from one of the even more experienced forecasters :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

    Thank you, although I would not call myself an experienced forecaster - more someone with a keen storm interest. I await an outlook from one of the even more experienced forecasters :D

    Lol looks like a good forecast to me.
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    Posted
  • Location: King's Lynn, Norfolk (from Bristol)
  • Location: King's Lynn, Norfolk (from Bristol)

    Great pics Greenday! I will have to look at the video at home later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

     Pretty much in agreement with supacell.  Two features to spark of convection. A weak trough in the East.

    post-2809-0-40801900-1407488040_thumb.pn

     

    And low level wind convergence.

    post-2809-0-63468500-1407488072_thumb.pn

     

    Mid level lapse rates are moderate (condusive to convection but not strong convection). Convection seems unlikely to tap into the jet winds aloft and wind shear through the cloud is low to moderate (slightly better in the east).

     

    NMM suggests

    post-2809-0-53056300-1407488279_thumb.pnpost-2809-0-23060900-1407488287_thumb.pn

     

    Strongest risk of a storm in Northern Ireland with a secondary area in the east of the country. Not quite sure how strong the convergence zone convection will be.

     

    Forecast SkewT's suggest a moderate risk of spout type tornadoes (very weak - more like wind devils).

    post-2809-0-51817700-1407488481_thumb.pn

     

    Poor instability , no dry air aloft and weak direction shear through the cloud suggest the possibility for severe convective activity is very low.

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