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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


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Cold front with a trough ahead of it for Saturday afternoon/evening perhaps sparking something off?

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.giffax36s.gif

 

Cape/Li looks rather lacking though.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gif30-505UK.gif

Could possibly be a little interesting here tomorrow but would not reckon so surprising considering the oven that has built up

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SHOCK WEATHER FORECAST! 

Sorry couldn't resist the daily express type headline as i a saw today. Could anyway explain to me exactly what makes this breakdown less thundery than the last?

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Was working in Reading this afternoon and my train back to Bristol was delayed by a passing cloudfart knocking out the signal. Pretty much sunny all the way westwards from Reading however.

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Lovely storms yesterday, after a roasting hot morning. The lightning was frequent and some of the thunder extremely loud, plus the rain was intense! Excellent stuff

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A low risk today, but a risk all the same of a few storms across the northern half of the country. All models agree on a band of showers breaking out this afternoon/evening from Wales, NW England and W Scotland and pushing eastwards across the N.Midlands, N.England and Scotland. NMM shows precipitation breaking out this afternoon ahead of the main band, but Euro4 is having none of this and has nothing until this evening.

 

With temperatures ahead of the showers (occurring along a cold front) around the mid to high twenties in Celsius and some CAPE build up (around 400-500j/kg) it would not surprise me to see some of these showers turning thundery. Any storms that do form will likely be of the pulse type with little in the way of shear to allow organisation so severe weather seems unlikely. However, with fairly high levels of moisture, any showers or storms could have the ability to produce torrential downpours and so a risk of localised flooding is possible. 

 

Overnight, more-so into the early hours, I am interested in an area around NE England (Humber northwards) as this area sees an increase in shear along with some weak CAPE holding on through the night, and so could see a briefly more organised storm as the band exits out into the North Sea.

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I missed my chances to get video's of the thunder and lightning because as soon as the storm arrived, I had to shut the windows. The rain was coming through them as the wind started getting wild..

Anyway, a few vids.. It doesn't do it justice now I look at it on YouTube..

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 There's a little band of showers not too far away from me. Some strikes being detected apparently...............the beginning of the end of the sauna

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 There's a little band of showers not too far away from me. Some strikes being detected apparently...............the beginning of the end of the sauna

 

Just had a few rumbles of thunder here NUT , nothing significant and never seen any lightning , its moved off now to the NE.

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Yep that one moved through here, couple of flashes of lightning and 10 or so rumbles of thunder with torrential rain. Moving off to the north now but still rumbling away :)

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Something starting near the Wirral, struggling to get going though

 

Posted Image

 

EDIT: Rash of showers now breaking out across Wales, some already heavy.

Edited by Convective
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Some cells forming over to the West, in Wales which may be worth keeping an eye on.....27c with clouds convecting readily over Birmingham atm

Edited by Arnie Pie
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looked 'slightly ' promising here early, temps around 28.c and some large cumulus growing to the west, they have now fragmented to nothing,  milky skies now, 

 

maybe a few spots of light rain later is the most to hope for, what a dud squib to end a decent  heatwave

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