Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

[cheese]

http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_hour_range=7&bo_oldmap=6&bo_oldani=1&bo_map=6&bo_year=2014&bo_month=8&bo_day=8&bo_hour_from=14&bo_animation=now〈=en#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form

[Greeny]

Can anyone under this tell me what its like please? :-) just wondering if this is just moderate continuous rain.

[harryc]

That must be seriously heavy rain there. Missed everything here west of Birmingham today.

[Neilsouth]

Loving this rain at the moment, shame it isn't thundery!

[Speedway Slider]

Looks like we missed all the Thunderstorms today in Leicester. Saturday looking fine, then Sunday... What can we expect storm wise?

Possibly embedded stuff has been mentioned, supercells been mentioned as well, even tornados...?

What do you seasoned netweatherer's forecast???

Edited August 9, 2014 by Speedway Slider

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like we missed all the Thunderstorms today in Leicester. Saturday looking fine, then Sunday... What can we expect storm wise?Possibly embedded stuff has been mentioned, supercells been mentioned as well, even tornados...?What do you seasoned netweatherer's forecast???

Think that's a taboo question - i've asked it several times and everyone goes eerily quiet...

[Raidan]

Just had the first shower of the day go through was quite heavy but sun back out now and feeling warm

The sun returning was perfect timing to stand in the garden and watch the Euro Fighter Typhoon do a display over Bristol Balloon Fiesta.

I'm hoping I get to see a thunderstorm either today or tomorrow.

Going dark again more rain imminent.

[Supacell]

Think that's a taboo question - i've asked it several times and everyone goes eerily quiet...

 

Did Nick F not answer the question on the previous page the best that it can be answered considering the uncertainty of the exact track of ex-Bertha?

[Mokidugway]

Showers actually crossing the Irish Sea without dissipating ,could be interesting later .....

[Utahraptor]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pi0PJW6Ui38

 

Another video of a storm here from the 6th of August

[Mokidugway]

Some descent electrical activity over Ireland ahead of Bertha at moment .....

[Wilxy]

Very thundery looking to my S, not thunder yet.

[Lauren]

I see Facebook and Twitter have already started with 'well this is a rubbish storm', 'it's only a little bit breezy, I thought we were supposed to be getting a storm??'.

 

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like lighting is slowing warming up

 

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=12

[Raidan]

Looks like its going to tip down any minute sky looks thundery.

[Supacell]

A few snippets of the torrential downpour i chased yesterday in North Nottinghamshire.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJhPf8KSDuA&list=UUQQOWmfgDDRfs90xgDAyN9Q

 

The clouds at the end of the video as the system passed over were rather impressive, the whole sky was filled with it.

Edited August 9, 2014 by Supacell

[NL]

Yesterdays storms produced what looks like a possible tornado up here in the North. Around 3pm Andrew Cogan caught a possible tornado as it brushed through Haltwhistle, a small town along the A69 between Carlisle and Newcastle.

Edited August 9, 2014 by NL

[Arnie Pie]

Certainly looks the part NL

[NL]

Certainly looks the part NL

It certainly does, you can clearly see the RFD to the left.

[Greeny]

Yesterdays storms produced what looks like a possible tornado up here in the North. Around 3pm Andrew Cogan caught a possible tornado as it brushed through Haltwhistle, a small town along the A69 between Carlisle and Newcastle.

Screen shot 2014-08-09 at 18.25.11.png

Wow nice! It says copyright, can I share that then in my Facebook group or will I need permission?

[Raidan]

Blimey that was some heavy rain that just hit here was surprised not to of heard any thunder as the sky looked thundery.

[NL]

Wow nice! It says copyright, can I share that then in my Facebook group or will I need permission?

I think it'll be fine as long as no monies are made from his image. He posted it to RadarEU and they splashed it on Facebook. As long as credit is given to Mr Andrew Cogan I dont think it will be an issue.

[Lynxus]

Some interesting convective potential showing on Sunday from GFS in association with the depression formed from ex-Bertha moving through. Strong jet aloft, veering wind profiles towards the surface with passage of low, 500mb dry air intrusion and several 100 j/kg CAPE in warm sector just ahead of cold front moving east = the recipe for severe thunderstorms. So potential for supercells bringing large hail, damaging convective gusts and even one or two tornadoes.

 

Slp and jet + CAPE 12z Sun:

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifjet.pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifcape.png

 

relative humidity at 500hPa at 12z Sun - blue showing dry air intrusion - which will enhance convection:

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifrh500.png

 

Lightning wizard wind shear and sig. tornado parameter charts at 09z and 12z Sun show the potential for rotating storms and tornadoes:

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgfs_stp_eur45.pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifgfs_stp_eur48.png

 

However, I am only illustrating potential, rather than making an actual forecast, given uncertainty over the track of the low still. 12z ECM has the low tracking alot further south than GFS - through S England and exiting around the Wash, for example. Thus severe potential maybe confined to Sern England in this case.

 

Any update on this?

 

How is it still looking? My brain breaks when we have a large low like this coming in with the Jet playing silly at the same time.. Just too much for me to look at with any confidence.

[Bluebreezer54]

deleted by bb54

Edited August 10, 2014 by Bluebreezer54

[Supacell]

Any update on this?

 

How is it still looking? My brain breaks when we have a large low like this coming in with the Jet playing silly at the same time.. Just too much for me to look at with any confidence.

 

I was just going to comment on how the GFS seems keen to spread some pretty vicious thunderstorms NE tomorrow but not sure how much reliance can be put on it. Essentially it shows CAPE in the region of 1000j/kg interacting with the jet stream creating deep layer shear, low layer shear, helicity. This and increased lapse rates all look to be developing together in an area from SW England and South Wales through the Midlands and exiting out into the North Sea. This would translate to a fairly good chance of supercell development accompanied by frequent lightning, large hail up to 3cm in diameter, strong wind gusts and maybe the odd tornado report. Timing would bring it into the SW early hours of the morning and then exiting the North Sea late afternoon. 

 

I am not very experienced at this kind of scenario so, like you, my brain is hurting. I will await a more experienced view.