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Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Grey uniform skies, warm and very calm. Doesn't feel like a thundery day today. Will see how it pans out.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

The usual warm sunshine here 

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

Very heavy rain here with thunder and lightning, though starting to slacken off now.  The rain has been so heavy that the Environment Agency has issued a flash flood warning for parts of Louth near the Louth Canal.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2014-08-08 10:44:01

Valid: 08/08/2014 1100z to 09/08/2014 0600z

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

post-1052-0-14800000-1407494945_thumb.pn

 

Synopsis

Large upper low sits to the W/N of the UK, driving a deeply cyclonic SWly flow across the UK, parent surface low is slow moving to the NW of British Isles with a surface trough moving NE across SE Uk developing into an area of low pressure, an unstable airmass develops across central, eastern and northern areas.

 

... SE ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, N & E ENGLAND, S/W SCOTLAND ...

 

Warm air advection at lower levels and increasingly cooler mid-level air overspreading from the west from upper low – will create an unstable airmass to surface heating across the above areas. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop as a result, with t-storms already across Yorks and Lincs. Thunderstorms will become more widespread through the day. Fairly strong SWly will allow some storm organisation into clusters/multicells, capable of producing localised high rainfall totals leading to flash flooding, hail of up to 1-2cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts. These storms should clear away east later in the evening.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND ...

 

Steep lapse rates here on the edge of upper low and its cold pool, combined with some weak surface heating and forcing from occluded fronts moving in from the west, will support scattered t-storms today, storms capable of producing hail, gusty winds and localised flooding

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Seems to be kicking off between Boston and Skegvegas, also around Huntingdon and another area near Louth, difficult to gauge storm direction thou, need some fresh lightning to get an idea......

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Hmm something to keep us occupied, I reckon this will be a other north of Watford event. Gloomy out there and not looking particulary conductive for storms. Been quiet for a while - will it go bang? :bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Seems to be kicking off between Boston and Skegvegas, also around Huntingdon and another area near Louth, difficult to gauge storm direction thou, need some fresh lightning to get an idea......

South to north

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

thanks Nick F this storm something the thunderstorms eased but the rain is bad my rain gauge in now much better shape yippee.  It almost matches the grimsby & cleethorpes from real weather to degree slightly short but we have had 25 mm/hr at one point 11.49am.   There's says 6.9 mm  so far compared to 3.9 mm on mine. 

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Actually a NNW developmental component to the East Midlands showers/ storms so Leicester may be in with a shout (SS^)

Edited by TonyH
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

wondering is this the sting of the tail of bertha.

Not at all she is way away over the Atlantic still

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wondering is this the sting of the tail of bertha.

 

Nothing to do with Bertha!

 

Watching the developing showers/storms with interest this afternoon. Seem to be moving NNW, so I'll get excited if anything tracks through Leicester :D

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

Nothing to do with Bertha!

 

Watching the developing showers/storms with interest this afternoon. Seem to be moving NNW, so I'll get excited if anything tracks through Leicester :D

 

thanks for that.  Seems to have stalled here on top of us

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Posted
  • Location: Skegness,Lincolnshire
  • Location: Skegness,Lincolnshire

Almost constant loud thunder here and few flashes has been rumbling for last 45 minutes so slow moving

But no rain at all may I add

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Posted
  • Location: King's Lynn, Norfolk (from Bristol)
  • Location: King's Lynn, Norfolk (from Bristol)

Cannot believe it has missed us again. Bertha better bring me some storms!

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Going to miss out again :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

I do have to say I was doing the dog walk at half past 5 this morning. The cloud looked pretty dark and quite evil. Hoping might get something at 1 point this afternoon

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Posted
  • Location: NE of Kendal 215m asl
  • Location: NE of Kendal 215m asl

Two rumbles of thunder heard, think that counts as a severe thunderstorm in these parts  :cray:

Ok I take that back, that was a half decent storm and the first overhead one this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Decent cell over Lincolnshire currently, heading in the direction of Lincoln. Another cell heading towards Manchester and a lot of cells around the North Pennines into Southern Scotland. Unfortunately nothing here or downwind to my south although it is only just gone 2pm, if nothing in this vicinity by tea time then I will be free to head out and find something.

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Just seen that I am under an Estofex level 2! We had a few introductory rumbles and some heavy rain earlier, but it's now hot and sunny but quite windy, and there are some great clouds developing. Activity is progged to go on all evening and most of the night, so this could be fun...

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