Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

[TonyH]

Nothing in Leicester!

Was not supposed to be just a few showers if anything.

Seem to remember warnings and predictions for storms in the SE last night so not sure why some are whinging (warnings yesterday evening)

[Neilsouth]

Large tower going up to my east with rain shafts

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Hi everyone

Sorry for my ranting this morning. Woke up with a lot on my mid ahead of a frustrating day and I think findig everyone else was enjoying a good storm just topped it all off.

You know when you find yourself ina bad mood but just can't shake it?

Well hope everyone who did get (edit: 'get' not 'gay' lol) action made the most of it - and I feel the pain of all the storm-starved who didn't.

Looking forward to the next event, as I said earlier would love pointers on how I can be better prepared although it's basically luck at the end of the day anyway.

Threatening looking skies about but doubting whether the ingredients are there for anything new.

Time for lunch methinks :-)

Edited July 28, 2014 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[johnholmes]

as I said earlier would love pointers on how I can be better prepared although it's basically luck at the end of the day anyway.

 

Not luck but knowing what to look for

Plenty on Extra to give good guidance or as good as the models can be 24 hours ahead.

Our own Nick F forecast is usually well worth reading and a good pointer. Other folk are also keen storm followers and often post their thoughts some time ahead.

Watch the professional forecasters on BBC TV, the evening before.

Have a look at the learning areas on here if you are not sure.

Items on skew-t, thunderstorms etc, and if you are okay with much of the basics then look at the relevant skew-t and the Extra skew-t predict for your area. Finally watch the radar for inidcations for about 3 hours ahead as to how the radar is developing, put on the 300mb data for wind direction if deep convection is predicted along with winds at lower heights to see how they are varying at those heights in speed and direction. Helpful as to which direction any actual storm will move, and the wind profile (read up Nick's guidance about this), on how severe any storm might become.

There is always Estofax forecasts as well.

So there is never any need for anyone, whatever level of understanding of this branch of meteorology, to be unaware of possible events.

 

hope that helps?

Edited July 28, 2014 by johnholmes

[Stormyking]

Seems to be a few heavy showers around the Southampton and Bournemouth area, if they develop a little bit more I wouldnt be suprised if they let out a strike or 2

 

On a frustrating note though, the showers that passed us this morning are now storms as they have hit france :L

 

If Guernsey was any smaller ill buy boat ores (them stick things)  and try to row there -.-

Edited July 28, 2014 by Stormyking

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Thanks for the advice... know estofex et al but its not that great for pinning down exactly 'when'. The times for the stuff this morning were incorrect as far as the forcasts I saw yesterday but maybe I should use a wider range of forecasts and average between them -

sometimes I think our weather gets it's act together too late and a lot of the potential is lost. Oh well.

Hot again today though

[Paul Sherman]

Yep Shockingly Out - By 30 minutes, these models are really bad

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80952-storm-convective-discussion-12z-21714/page-17?p=3014937#entry3014937

 

Take a look at that post last night and apart from the Brighton Storm which was not even on that projected model run above as it occured 3 hours later.

 

Post 339 By the Way!

 

Please try not to blame everything else when the times were in fact correct almost to the hour with storms initiating around the Braintree area and also North of London.

Edited July 28, 2014 by Paul Sherman

[lassie23]

First storm of the day approaching my area! Looks like a decent one!

[johnholmes]

Thanks for the advice... know estofex et al but its not that great for pinning down exactly 'when'. The times for the stuff this morning were incorrect as far as the forcasts I saw yesterday but maybe I should use a wider range of forecasts and average between them -sometimes I think our weather gets it's act together too late and a lot of the potential is lost. Oh well.Hot again today though

 

re the bold=of course it cannot do that nor can anyone sometimes even 3 hours prior to the event. Hence my suggestion of the use of the radar and my comments on using it?

[lassie23]

First storm of the day approaching my area! Looks like a decent one!

That was not a good storm at all, the winds veered Northerly and the entire thing got blown away!

[matty007]

Managed to capture this last night during a glorious storm. Shame I didn't see the shrubbery at the top of the photo, but it's a good capture nonetheless. 

 

[Robbie Garrett]

Been by far the stormiest Summer in a very very long time...

[matty007]

Been by far the stormiest Summer in a very very long time...

 

Yep. Reminds me of the summers in the 90's when I was a child. 

 

Summers after 1999 have been terrible for storm activity really, you were lucky if you got one good one a year. 2004 was decent, but this year has been far better. 

[Mokidugway]

Been by far the stormiest Summer in a very very long time...

depends where you are Robbie been fairly moribund in my neck of the woods .....

[Robbie Garrett]

depends where you are Robbie been fairly moribund in my neck of the woods .....

 

Sorry to hear, it's been dire down here for many years. Only recently has it been awesome.

 

 

Yep. Reminds me of the summers in the 90's when I was a child. 

 

Summers after 1999 have been terrible for storm activity really, you were lucky if you got one good one a year. 2004 was decent, but this year has been far better. 

 

Yeah I remember those late 90's too, very small and scared of those overnight MCS. Harry and Lauren remember them too thankfully

[Mokidugway]

Sorry to hear, it's been dire down here for many years. Only recently has it been awesome.   Yeah I remember those late 90's too, very small and scared of those overnight MCS. Harry and Lauren remember them too thankfully

yep only one this year ,although it went on for 5hours !!...

[jamesslater93]

Here's a video I've made of this morning's thunderstorm:

 

Here are some still images from the video:

[chubbyfan]

that storm cell this morning..was it rated high ?.

 

I know it was only a few areas in southeast but..it was brewing right above brighton..not sure if I can recall 3hrs plus of thunder/lightning ever before.

[sendandreturn]

Just goes to show you don't need a Spanish Plume for it to kick off, I would rate this mornings weather as more severe than last week looking at the news...

[lassie23]

Just goes to show you don't need a Spanish Plume for it to kick off, I would rate this mornings weather as more severe than last week looking at the news...

Spanish plumes are over rated !

[Tom Jarvis]

Here's a video I've made of this morning's thunderstorm:

 Here are some still images from the video:

What did you take these with??

[Biggin]

So some showers 4  SE ??

[Gordon Webb]

Here's a video I've made of this morning's thunderstorm:

 

Here are some still images from the video:

 

That's one place I'm glad I wasn't there

[Polar Maritime]

There's something brewing to the South of me..

[jamesslater93]

What did you take these with??

 

Just with my phone, an HTC

 

My phone's not good enough to take good pictures of lightning so I go through the videos on my laptop and slow the videos down, enabling me to get a decent 'still image'.

Edited July 28, 2014 by jamesslater93