Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[damianslaw]

Yes these synoptics are perhaps a month too late - August was very disappointing in the main.

 

It reminds me a lot of September 2006 which came on the back of a lacklustre August after an excellent June and July. September 2006 was very blocked and the mildest on record with ancticylonic conditions ruling the roost until the end of the month with winds predominantly from a SW-SE quarter.

 

Maximum temps were much higher in Sept 2006 than they have been so far this month though.

 

There are hints of mid Sept 2003 and late Sept 2011 in the outlook for later next week..

 

Alas all these years mentioned saw a wet unsettled October with the atlantic ruling the roost (2003 though was quite cold with northerly influences).

 

 

There have been dry settled Septembers followed by mostly dry settled Octobers though - 2005, 2009 and 2010 being good examples. Interestingly these three years saw very different Novembers, 2005 very mild wet first half,dry cold second half, 2009 - exceptionally wet and very mild, 2010 - wet mild start very cold wintry second half, whereas Nov 2003, 2006 and 2011 were just wet and mild.

 

 

 

There could be some credence in

[MP-R]

Yes these synoptics are perhaps a month too late - August was very disappointing in the main.

 

It reminds me a lot of September 2006 which came on the back of a lacklustre August after an excellent June and July. September 2006 was very blocked and the mildest on record with ancticylonic conditions ruling the roost until the end of the month with winds predominantly from a SW-SE quarter.

 

Maximum temps were much higher in Sept 2006 than they have been so far this month though.

 

There are hints of mid Sept 2003 and late Sept 2011 in the outlook for later next week..

 

Alas all these years mentioned saw a wet unsettled October with the atlantic ruling the roost (2003 though was quite cold with northerly influences).

 

 

There have been dry settled Septembers followed by mostly dry settled Octobers though - 2005, 2009 and 2010 being good examples. Interestingly these three years saw very different Novembers, 2005 very mild wet first half,dry cold second half, 2009 - exceptionally wet and very mild, 2010 - wet mild start very cold wintry second half, whereas Nov 2003, 2006 and 2011 were just wet and mild.

 

 

 

There could be some credence in

 

I wouldn't go that far. The only settled spell was between the 5th and 12th. Looking back through the archives, September was that year was actually quite mobile so it was very notable that we had such warm temperatures from an otherwise typical September setup.

 

 

 

 

 

After the 13th, it was a very changeable and often unsettled month with a notable presence of rain and thundery downpours, particularly after the 21st.

[summer blizzard]

Yes as I recall the Sep-Jan period was remarkable for its constant above average values in all metrics. Quite tropical really.

[Weather-history]

I have just seen the Auwinter thread.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81360-auwinter-2014-thread/

What a load of nonsense, what next Winting, the season between winter and spring, Sprummer, the season between spring and summer, Sumtumn, the season between summer and autumn.....

Edited September 14, 2014 by Weather-history

[laserguy]

- October is looking like a very wet and stormy month at the moment

 

Gawd I hope this bit is correct.

[shaky]

Gawd I hope this bit is correct.

doubt it very much at the moment!!current cfs forecast has high pressure for October aswell!!!Although things may change you just never know!!

[feb1991blizzard]

-3c isotherm hit by a couple of GEFS members on 12z over N.England for first time.

[Summer Sun]

Driest start to September since 1960, says Met Office

 

The first half of September has been the driest for more than 50 years, the Met Office has said. According to its data, there was just 6.7mm of rain across the UK in the first 15 days of the month. That figure is 7% of the September average of 96mm, making it the driest start to September since records began in 1960. High pressure over the UK is halting the usual advance of low pressure systems in the month, say forecasters. "Low pressure tends to move in from the Atlantic and the continent, bringing with it unsettled conditions to the UK," said BBC forecaster, Krista Mitchell. Asked if this was likely to become the driest September on record, she said: "It's just too early to tell. For the rest of this week we are forecasting dry and warm weather for many areas, but there will be some sharp showers particularly later on Thursday and in to Friday."

 

The statistics also indicate that it has been the driest start to September in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. In England, the first half of September was drier in both 1997 and 2003.  It has also been a sunnier than average start to the month, according to the Met Office. There were almost 71 hours of sunshine across the UK from 1-15 September, which is 57% of the average for the whole month. Wales saw an unusually high 90 hours of sunshine, which is 71% of the long-term average for the whole month. Temperatures too have been higher than usual, say meteorologists. The mean temperature so far this month has been 13.9C, which is 1.3C above average. Night-time minimums have been 0.7C above the average of 9.6C.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29239668

[bryan629]

doubt it very much at the moment!!current cfs forecast has high pressure for October aswell!!!Although things may change you just never know!!

 

 

I wouldn't really put too much faith into the CFS to be honest. It's really quite unreliable.

 

i wouldnt totally write off the CFS as unreliable, its not a bad tool. i would agree it is if you were looking at synoptics for next february though, but used in a medium term whilst looking for trends or repeating synoptics for about a month ahead its not that bad.... just to give you an example of what i mean...

 

heres what the cfs predicted in august for september..

 

just about spot on.

 

 

the current trend is also showing for october to be a fairly dry month too, with high pressure in close proximity to the uk. as the main models are also beginning to trend upon.

[Froze were the Days]

CFS was pretty good a month or so ahead around the February - March phase of 2013 which showed continued high latitude blocking, Sometimes some members will show you pressure anomalies from certain CFS runs which will suit 'coldies' needs which to a degree can make the CFS look worse than what it actually has performed.

[Jax]

Who would have seen this fantastic September just a few months ago?

+ avg temps. -avg rainfall and storms (along with calm spells)

[Turnedoutniceagain]

We might see 5-6c tonight.......*clings to straws*

 

Come on Autumn, where are you??

[Mountain Snow]

Well this is turning out to be a fantastic September, bit cloudy at times but very dry. Topping off a great summer (I've forgotten about August now) I'm happy for this to carry on as long as it will but I'm really starting to crave some classic Lakeland wet n windy weather!

[Captain Shortwave]

Apart from a rare cloudy day, this September has been very good indeed. The thunderstorms yesterday morning and on Friday were definitely a bonus to the glut in July

[laserguy]

Apart from a rare cloudy day, this September has been very good indeed. The thunderstorms yesterday morning and on Friday were definitely a bonus to the glut in July

 

Of course, we got nothing of the sort - just bone dry, never cold stagnation. And what do we have today, on what is definitively the start of Autumn? More gin-clear skies, virtually no wind and a temperature which is way too high. Excellent... not. September? Sloptember, more like. October, I'm banking on you to make amends,in spades.

[damianslaw]

Today is very autumnal - there is a distinct nip in the air and the prospect of a cold night ahead. It feels very different to recent days which have been very muggy, its a different airstream, cooler uppers, change in the wind direction. The air has much more sparkle about it - a lovely early autumn day.

 

Next week will see more traditional early autumn fayre at least in the NW quarter of the country, with a bit of rain and wind at times and coolish brighter interludes.

 

But yes I agree its been an exceptionally trying September so far - with little to talk about and not very seasonal. I always rate September as the most trying month of the year weatherwise - it never has a particular character.

[laserguy]

 

But yes I agree its been an exceptionally trying September so far - with little to talk about and not very seasonal. I always rate September as the most trying month of the year weatherwise - it never has a particular character.

 

True - I should never have gotten my hopes up so much for it during the height of the summer awfulness, but I expected better than this. Truly off the scale in the tediosity stakes.

[reef]

The dreadful weather continues here. No sunshine again today and a max of 15.1C.

We've had just 2.7hrs of sunshine in the last 9 days and only 51hrs all month. I dont think I can remember such a prolonged dull period. The dullest September Ive ever recorded looks odds on.

[James M]

Well I'm thinking about the possibility of the first ground frost tonight? It's already down to 6.7C , lovely cool, fresh and autumnal feeling in the air

[laserguy]

Another Autumn day down the pan - it's more like goddamn summer. This constant non-weather has gotten quite ridiculous now, much more of this and I'm gonna end up on the funny farm.

[Milhouse]

Those wanting strong gales and deep depressions just need to be patient. On one hand we have those saying that September has a tendency to have lengthy quiet and settled spells. And on the other hand we have those labelling the current settled conditions as unseasonal. Which one is it to be. I would expect the Atlantic to have fired up by early November but its too early to have expected gales and heavy rain to have arrived already.

[Weather-history]

This is nature repaying us for that miserable August, with a lovely September.

The problem I have with this romantic notion is how do you know that the miserable August was not payment for the decent July?

As I said many a time, talk about nature balancing this and that is exactly what is balancing, what?

[summer blizzard]

Must admit its not as humid as most September heat, i suspect that's because of the centers location over rather than well south east though. I do like the dryness even if its not the sunniest setup and the nights are good and cold.

 

Bringing it forward to winter, this setup reminds me of winter 06 which was very dry, very frosty and very sunny. The November 05 switch was epic too (near record warmth for first 12 days then the third coldest second half since 1952). 

 

..

 

Hopefully if it sticks around into late October this setup could move towards inversions.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6z GFS in FI had striking similarities to mid October 2009 With the analogues suggestive of a '09 scenario (nino and -QBO values), if the similarities continue deeper into autumn I'll be more optimistic for winter. I'd take a winter similar to '09/'10 any day of the week.

Edited September 26, 2014 by CreweCold

[Zenarcher]

My October forecast can be viewed here https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4830-october-2014-forecast/