Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[gsteruk]

Agreed, its a nice start presently, nice to see those summer days starting to fade. We've been forecast a slight return of sun and higher temps, but thankfully they haven't arrived yet!

[Weather-history]

A frustrating day. Dry, felt warm but cloudy. Reminded me of the last week of August 2008.

[Weather-history]

I was struck by some trees shedding their leaves now. It seems really early to me. What trees shed their leaves the first?

[shaky]

I was struck by some trees shedding their leaves now. It seems really early to me. What trees shed their leaves the first?

I mentioned this a few days ago on the other page!!here in leicester quite a few trees are shedding leaves pretty early this year!!a month and a half earlier than last year!!last time I saw this happen was autumn 2012!!

[laserguy]

 What trees shed their leaves the first?

 

I'd say Silver Birch - or the first to start shedding them anyway.

[Weather-history]

I'd say Silver Birch - or the first to start shedding them anyway.

I notice that silver birches near me, the leaves are changing colour.

Ivy on a house near me, the leaves are already red.

[Bogman]

Noticed laying leaves on the gorund this morning for the first time. Also a few trees have their leaves turning golden brown. Really love this time of year, especially when the trees are burdened with leaves of all colours.

Can be breathtaking.

[johnholmes]

The latest output re ENSO is below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

and the latest Met O ideas for the next 3 months

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

[Gael_Force]

The Met Office ensemble mean charts.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Surely we cannot see this horrid pattern two years in a row?

 

[Don]

The Met Office ensemble mean charts.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Surely we cannot see this horrid pattern two years in a row?

 

Oh dear, that would not be good news, especially for those who suffered all the floods last Winter.

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office ensemble mean charts.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Surely we cannot see this horrid pattern two years in a row?

 

 

hmm the 2 snowiest winters in recent years I can remember came in 09 / 10 and 10 / 11 so its not out the question for this winter to be similar to last year certainly wouldn't be welcomed by most on here thats for certain 

[Don]

hmm the 2 snowiest winters in recent years I can remember came in 09 / 10 and 10 / 11 so its not out the question for this winter to be similar to last year certainly wouldn't be welcomed by most on here thats for certain

True. Mild and cold Winter's do come in clusters so whilst I doubt it will be as wet as last year, it wouldn't surprise me if we have another generally mild and wet Winter. I Hope not though! However, the background signals are a bit different this year.

[stewfox]

True. Mild and cold Winter's do come in clusters so whilst I doubt it will be as wet as last year, it wouldn't surprise me if we have another generally mild and wet Winter. I Hope not though! However, the background signals are a bit different this year.

 

Often said , any support for this ie anyone number crunched 350yrs of CET figures

[hillbilly]

Often said , any support for this ie anyone number crunched 350yrs of CET figures

There is little evidence,totally random but there can be clusters of types of weather but have no pattern!!!

[Don]

Often said , any support for this ie anyone number crunched 350yrs of CET figures

 

Sorry, should have said mild and cold Winters 'can' come in clusters!

[bryan629]

Oh dear, that would not be good news, especially for those who suffered all the floods last Winter.

Thats just one chart of lots more runs to go though.

 

And to be fair, last autumn, well October, November time the Met said that they expected a colder than average winter 2013/14. A lot of pros did... i suppose. 

 

We all know what happened or should i say didn`t happen that was predicted by the LRF models.... thing is , its just simply too early for any model to assume whats to come so far away.   dont get me wrong i want to see double amounts of snow this winter, but lets get autumn out of the way first !  I could quite easily find an anomoly chart that shows a raging easterly all winter...but i wouldnt post it because i defo would not bank on it to verify or assume it would come close to it. Although, sneakily i am looking for trends

 

Not long now to the Equinox, im hoping it will stay dry for quite a while yet , and with the nights turning longer than the day...possible risk of frosts by night, which hopefully leads to a really good show of autumn colours. 

[sundog]

 

 

It also seems like autumn plays a part too. Warmer than average autumns seem to lead onto milder winters. Autumn 2006 was a great example of this and even last year, autumn 2013 was warmer than average and lead onto that exceptionally mild winter.

 

 

I think so too,i know many will say what happens in Autumn has no effect on the coming winter but i dont think warm Autumns help winters cause. It seems to set a bad precedent imo. Some may point to Autumn 1978 which was a warm Autumn but led to a cold winter,fair enough but in recent yrs warm autumns do not seem to be helping. 2006,2011,2013 ,warm Autumns like these which led onto very poor winters is not just a coincidence imo. We have had plenty of warm Autumns over the last 20 yrs and have had plenty of mild winters too. The Autumns of 2008-2010 were cooler then many we have had in recent yrs....................

[Weather-history]

I think so too,i know many will say what happens in Autumn has no effect on the coming winter but i dont think warm Autumns help winters cause. It seems to set a bad precedent imo. Some may point to Autumn 1978 which was a warm Autumn but led to a cold winter,fair enough but in recent yrs warm autumns do not seem to be helping. 2006,2011,2013 ,warm Autumns like these which led onto very poor winters is not just a coincidence imo. We have had plenty of warm Autumns over the last 20 yrs and have had plenty of mild winters too. The Autumns of 2008-2010 were cooler then many we have had in recent yrs....................

You don't have to go back to autumn 1978. Autumn 2009 was actually in the top 10 warmest autumns on record at the time and it was followed by the coldest winter since 1979.

We've had plenty of warm seasons over the last 20 or so years not just autumn and winter. All seasons have been generally warmer from 1988-2007, it maybe tempting to try and draw a parallel but when it has been generally a blanket coverage across all seasons in that period, it's hard to try and draw a parallel.

Incidentally in that period, autumn 1995 was exceptionally mild and the following winter was a cold one.

Whilst autumn 1993 was the coldest for 40 years, the winter was above average.

Edited September 5, 2014 by Weather-history

[summer blizzard]

Unimpressive high pressure to date. Often dull and not really warm or cool.

Can't wait for late November by which time we get fog and inversions.

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the next 10 days

 

Little rain

 

Warm by day

 

Chilly nights

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/29086306

 

[damianslaw]

Its a mixed picture, warm autumns-mild winters theory. Yes we have had many warm autumns followed by mild winters, notably 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2013. However, 2000, 2005 delivered a very mild autumn and we saw an average winter. Autumn 78 and 95 were very mild and we saw cold winters.

 

Autumn 09 was also very mild, November 09 was one of the mildest on record and the tables quickly turned in December, with the coldest winter since 78/79.

 

So it is certainly not always the case.

 

I'd like an autumn like 2008, this was a classic one in my book, very seasonal, particularly late October through to end November, loved the arctic blast in late October that year, and the generally chilly November with foggy cold frosty conditions by latter part of the month descending into a cold wintry start to December. 2009 was memorable for the wrong reasons, November being a disaster around here! 2010 was a bit too dry and settled for my book, despite the superb wintry second half to November.

 

I liked 2012 as well, quite similar to 2008, but very much disliked 2011 and 2013 autumns.

 

This autumn has started on a very similar note to 2006, oh dear the most woeful autumn of recent times... lets hope things change soon.

[MP-R]

Its a mixed picture, warm autumns-mild winters theory. Yes we have had many warm autumns followed by mild winters, notably 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2013. However, 2000, 2005 delivered a very mild autumn and we saw an average winter. Autumn 78 and 95 were very mild and we saw cold winters.

 

Autumn 09 was also very mild, November 09 was one of the mildest on record and the tables quickly turned in December, with the coldest winter since 78/79.

 

So it is certainly not always the case.

 

I'd like an autumn like 2008, this was a classic one in my book, very seasonal, particularly late October through to end November, loved the arctic blast in late October that year, and the generally chilly November with foggy cold frosty conditions by latter part of the month descending into a cold wintry start to December. 2009 was memorable for the wrong reasons, November being a disaster around here! 2010 was a bit too dry and settled for my book, despite the superb wintry second half to November.

 

I liked 2012 as well, quite similar to 2008, but very much disliked 2011 and 2013 autumns.

 

This autumn has started on a very similar note to 2006, oh dear the most woeful autumn of recent times... lets hope things change soon.

 

Agree with all of this, though can't comment on 2012 as I was living in Spain at the time. This September reminds me more of 2007 than 2006 though as 2006 was an unsettled one here.

[weatherguy]

Hey all, tentatively back before I really get into things again for the coming winter

 

I do wonder what impacts the ongoing eruption in Iceland will have on our weather, certainly too small currently to have any discernible impact, but it has the potential to go on for a long time and possibly get larger too.  Here's an image showing the SO2 released from the fissure so far:

 

[seems an image from twitter isn't allowed here, so you'll have to do with a link instead!]

 

https://twitter.com/uni_iceland/status/508266259851784192/photo/1

[Jax]

Well the Swifts are gone so there is a telling sign.

[reef]

Well the Swifts are gone so there is a telling sign.

That's strange, they were still here yesterday evening. It cant be long now though.

 

Rather Autumnal here today, overcast with drizzle and a max of 15.8C.