Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[JeffC]

Have to say that in my neck of the woods the leaves really are turning a bit earlier than average - oak, hazel and beech. Seems to be more beech nuts around this year too - although not sure that actually means anything weather-wise. Certainly Blackberries have ripened earlier than usual. I can understand fruit doing better because for the most part it's been a good growing year - not too dry and plenty of sun through July, but not sure why the leaves are turning, as they'd started to show some colour before the "Bertha drop off" temperature wise...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Have to say that in my neck of the woods the leaves really are turning a bit earlier than average - oak, hazel and beech. Seems to be more beech nuts around this year too - although not sure that actually means anything weather-wise. Certainly Blackberries have ripened earlier than usual. I can understand fruit doing better because for the most part it's been a good growing year - not too dry and plenty of sun through July, but not sure why the leaves are turning, as they'd started to show some colour before the "Bertha drop off" temperature wise...

 

Deciduous tree leaves have a shelf life. They were budding at the end of January in some instances and the leaves were out early this year due to the lack of frosts and continuous mild temperatures throughout winter. They are coming to the end of their life cycle early, that's all.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Where most of the time during the warmer half of the year I'm very much of the different opinion to you regarding the weather, I am probably as sick as you are that high pressure is returning next week. Unlike you, I wanted charts like that in August - summer. Similarly to you, I am hoping for the August-like charts to return in September. For me, nothing like a nice cool fresh September after a warm and sunny August. However it seems the weather is cocking it up for second month in a row.

 

I've certainly been spoiled by recent Septembers:

 

   

 

Moaning aside, I am ever so slightly excited for a colder winter, well, a winter at all. As I've said before, I'll be looking for the jet to track southwards big time by November.

 

I'm really starting to despise September as a month in meteorological terms. Just the same benign bland crap year after year. I wouldn't mind the sunny/unseasonably warm conditions if they were accompanied by an unstable plume of some description....but we don't even get that. Just.....grim!

[laserguy]

Many of us have been saying over the past couple of weeks that summer's not over yet. Can't say you weren't warned!

 

 

 

Ye I fully expected it to rear its ugly head again at some point - always happens, but this August did a particularly good job of making me believe that this year I might just get away with it. Ah well, I've still got the ever-darkening evenings as consolation....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ye I fully expected it to rear its ugly head again at some point - always happens, but this August did a particularly good job of making me believe that this year I might just get away with it. Ah well, I've still got the ever-darkening evenings as consolation....

 

Yeah there's something quite satisfying about seeing idiots trying to hold a BBQ in the dark.

 

I don't think people know what a BBQ is these days anyway given everything is cooked on a portable gas oven disguised as a BBQ. May aswell just shove everything in the oven and transfer it outside, rather than paying exorbitant prices for the 'BBQ' and gas cylinders.

Edited August 28, 2014 by CreweCold

[laserguy]

Yeah there's something quite satisfying about seeing idiots trying to hold a BBQ in the dark.

 

I don't think people know what a BBQ is these days anyway given everything is cooked on a portable gas oven disguised as a BBQ. May aswell just shove everything in the oven and transfer it outside, rather than paying exorbitant prices for the 'BBQ' and gas cylinders.

 

BBQs are the domain of dozy guys who wouldn't normally be seen dead near a cooker, but they see the BBQ as some expression of manliness. I really don't get it - there's nothing to be proud about wandering around in a pinny, scorching the outside of a few sausages and poisoning everyone in attendance and getting leathered on crappy supermarket lager, whilst stinking out the entire neighborhood. Anyways you know summer is on borrowed time when they start flogging off half price BBQs. They're at it already so that's an encouraging sign.

[feb1991blizzard]

BBQs are the domain of dozy guys who wouldn't normally be seen dead near a cooker, but they see the BBQ as some expression of manliness. I really don't get it - there's nothing to be proud about wandering around in a pinny, scorching the outside of a few sausages and poisoning everyone in attendance and getting leathered on crappy supermarket lager, whilst stinking out the entire neighborhood. Anyways you know summer is on borrowed time when they start flogging off half price BBQs. They're at it already so that's an encouraging sign.

 

Yeah there's something quite satisfying about seeing idiots trying to hold a BBQ in the dark.

 

I don't think people know what a BBQ is these days anyway given everything is cooked on a portable gas oven disguised as a BBQ. May aswell just shove everything in the oven and transfer it outside, rather than paying exorbitant prices for the 'BBQ' and gas cylinders.

 

 

Absolutely, I can honestly say I have never been to a barbeque in my entire life and never will.

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm really starting to despise September as a month in meteorological terms. Just the same benign bland crap year after year. I wouldn't mind the sunny/unseasonably warm conditions if they were accompanied by an unstable plume of some description....but we don't even get that. Just.....grim!

after having either the choice of gloomy cool northwesterlies or days of constant rain which have plagued August then I will take a prolonged sunny and warm spell in September. I would expect some kind of plume attempt at the end of next week or into that following weekend, watch this space.....

[hillbilly]

Absolutely, I can honestly say I have never been to a barbeque in my entire life and never will.

What is wrong with a barbecue?If you have never had one then how can you comment! It does not have to be lots of drunks or even blokes doing the cooking,a lot of mine are just me ,my girlfriend and the little girl,a nice flame grilled burger or sausage with a salad on a hot day is lovely!!!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Absolutely, I can honestly say I have never been to a barbeque in my entire life and never will.

BBQs are the domain of dozy guys who wouldn't normally be seen dead near a cooker, but they see the BBQ as some expression of manliness. I really don't get it - there's nothing to be proud about wandering around in a pinny, scorching the outside of a few sausages and poisoning everyone in attendance and getting leathered on crappy supermarket lager, whilst stinking out the entire neighborhood. Anyways you know summer is on borrowed time when they start flogging off half price BBQs. They're at it already so that's an encouraging sign.

I can honestly say that these two comments are the most sterio-typical false statements iv ever heard , if you've never been to a BBQ then your not qualified to comment are you? BBQ's are a perfect opportunity to get outdoors when the weathers nice , have friends over , and sip wine in the garden (or drink white lightening if we believe what you've made out ) it's a fantastic opportune time to socialise with people you care about . Anyway back to the theme I'm really looking forward to cool evenings , the first frost. Red leaves , and the general excitement of knowing the winter is on its way , and looking for signals in the models and studying the stratosphere thread trying to pick out potential waves/warmings in the coming weeks.Roll on autumn Edited August 28, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Woollymummy]

Massively huge piles of barbecue charcoal stacked up in the porch of our local Tesco, while outside it was torrential rain. It's not going to go off, why don't they just pack it up for next year?!

[Woollymummy]

We usually cook up outside more in the autumn after clearing bits of the garden, by burning dried weeds and hedge clippings and some logs, and trying to cook up our garden harvest on that. Much more real and fun to cook outside in autumn than trying cooking sausages on a day that is already roasting hot.

[laserguy]

I can honestly say that these two comments are the most sterio-typical false statements iv ever heard , if you've never been to a BBQ then your not qualified to comment are you?

 

I've attended two, back in the days when I didn't know any better and non-appearance would have been awkward. Proper 'WTF am I doing here?' moments, never to be repeated despite who I might upset. Y'know how family and friends can get but stuff that. They'll get over it.

[cheeky_monkey]

I've attended two, back in the days when I didn't know any better and non-appearance would have been awkward. Proper 'WTF am I doing here?' moments, never to be repeated despite who I might upset. Y'know how family and friends can get but stuff that. They'll get over it.

Point is its not about the BBQ its about the people and entertainment. I have been to some cracking parties masked as BBQs in past that have turned into all nighters

[Costa Del Fal]

I've attended two, back in the days when I didn't know any better and non-appearance would have been awkward. Proper 'WTF am I doing here?' moments, never to be repeated despite who I might upset. Y'know how family and friends can get but stuff that. They'll get over it.

So very stereotypical comments. A shame. Many see BBQ's as a great opportunity to socialise with family and friends. You have plastered everyone in the same light that we are mindless drunks who out to poison everyone and everything, disrupting your evening stuck indoors (it's probably cooler outdoors than in the house anyway lol). And for those who have never been to a BBQ before, you have no right to comment on that!

[johnholmes]

I've attended two, back in the days when I didn't know any better and non-appearance would have been awkward. Proper 'WTF am I doing here?' moments, never to be repeated despite who I might upset. Y'know how family and friends can get but stuff that. They'll get over it.

 

you get sadder and sadder but hey ho it takes all sorts. Live and let live, unless neighbours are causing a genuine nuisance.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the last few years I've attended the occasional BBQ mainly for the social side of it (notably a few held down in Norwich)- they have been excuses for social groups to get together- though I also like the taste of barbecue burgers, there is something "different" about them that is hard to achieve from an oven-cooked or restaurant burger.  I rarely used to get them when I was living near the Tyneside coast as there always seemed to be a cold wind off the North Sea or funneling over the Pennines when we had a warm/hot sunny spell.  One of the ironies of the Tyne and Wear coast is that while it is prone to "haar" during hot spells, it tends to be among the driest and sunniest regions of the UK during unsettled westerly spells, but still generally not good enough to get the BBQ out.

Edited August 29, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

Yeah there's something quite satisfying about seeing idiots trying to hold a BBQ in the dark. I don't think people know what a BBQ is these days anyway given everything is cooked on a portable gas oven disguised as a BBQ. May aswell just shove everything in the oven and transfer it outside, rather than paying exorbitant prices for the 'BBQ' and gas cylinders.

I swear blind that BBQs have only become an "in" thing in the last decade or two in this country. I am sure I hardly heard of BBQs being mentioned in the late 80s or at least not to the level it is now.

As for Autumn 2014, I hope it is a dry benign one. Mellow fruitfulness.

[hillbilly]

I swear blind that BBQs have only become an "in" thing in the last decade or two in this country. I am sure I hardly heard of BBQs being mentioned in the late 80s or at least not to the level it is now.

As for Autumn 2014, I hope it is a dry benign one. Mellow fruitfulness.

You are right ,certainly not heard about when I was a kid,probably came over from Australia in the mid to late 80s with Neighbours,home and away,fosters and xxxx !!!!

[laserguy]

you get sadder and sadder but hey ho it takes all sorts. Live and let live, unless neighbours are causing a genuine nuisance.

 

I'll take that as a compliment instead of getting all huffy and hitting the 'report' button, as some are inclined to do. Meanwhile I wish summer would do the decent thing and go away, and allow autumn to put paid to those dreadful, dreadful BBQs once and for all. Well, until the whole sorry cycle starts again in spring.

[jamesthemonkeh]

I have issued my autumn forecast on my weather forecasting page for Reading, Berkshire - given the general nature of doing a seasonal forecast it will likely cover most of the south of England.

 

It is written for the general public as opposed to generally more meteorologically knowledgeable folk on this forum but I thought some might be interested.

 

My seasonal forecasts generally do reasonably ok.  Deduced from a mixture of sources - a decade of model watching, some historical matching, seasonal models such as CFS and just gut feeling.

 

***************

 

The headline for this autumn is for a dry September and October, often with above-average temperatures. A gradual breakdown to unsettled conditions in November with above average rainfall and an early taste of winter to finish.

 

September will begin with high pressure over the UK, or drifting to the east. This will bring lots of warm or possibly hot sunshine. There is the potential for it to briefly drift west bringing a cooler flow and perhaps some showers around 7th - 10th September. I then expect high pressure to move back over the UK to bring further warm sunshine for the rest of the month. Depending on the exact position of the high pressure, there could be some chilly nights in the second half of the month. Rainfall to be very low, perhaps as few as 3-4 days with rain falling, mostly from weak weather fronts toppling over areas of high pressure occasionally.

 

Overall I expect well-above average sunshine amounts, above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall.

 

I am 90% confident of this outcome.

 

October has a strong signal for high pressure to be to our east and this has been something that I have been confident about for several months now, which will mean southerly winds and well above-average temperatures at times, especially in the first half of the month.

 

The second half of the month is most likely to see the Atlantic high come into effect, bringing cooler north-westerly or northerly winds and occasional showers or weak weather fronts, but mostly dry.

 

Overall I expect above-average sunshine amounts, slightly-above or above average temperatures and below-average rainfall.

 

I am 70% confident of this outcome - less confident about the second half.

 

November will see the return of low pressure systems, though I expect the Jetstream to be tracking slightly north of here, say over Scotland so although rainfall will likely be regular, I expect that we will miss the heaviest of the rain. High pressure will likely nudge into the south at times so there will be a couple of 3-4 day drier spells.

 

I do feel that there is a chance of a brief cold spell towards the end of the month.

 

Overall I expect slightly below-average sunshine amounts, slightly above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall.

 

I am 80% confident of this outcome.

[snowsummer]

Well! When I nip down to tesco/B&Q for a cheap bbq this weekend I do hope some of the cashiers there will discuss the up and coming autumn weather with me...........

[gary1365]

I remember having plenty of bbq even I was a child right from the start of the 90s infect I always remember us having a bbq in the summers.

Any bbqs I've been to the food is always properly cooked you need to let it die down before you cook on it alot of people cook too soon. I also agree about gas ones I don't see the point in them it really is just the same as using an indoor cooker lol

I going for a nice sunny September followed by an unsettled October but not on the 4 or 5 for a wee trip for my birthday with a few frosts then a nice frosty November. I know we'll end up with Atlantic dross instead though.

Edited August 31, 2014 by gary1365

[gsteruk]

Nice to see a winter thread doing well! Hopefully just those who like looking further ahead who will comment here, lots of threads still available for those who don't :-)

What are people hoping for and expecting for the end of Autumn? Its been encouraging to feel a nice chill in the air so soon, hoping it continues and build to some frost and chilly clear nights.

Obviously far too early for forecasting with any kind of confidence, so any hopes and wishes or comparisons welcome :-)

Edited September 2, 2014 by gsteruk

[simshady]

Had the first nice Autumn morning here at 6 am. It was dry but almost frosty with a lovely mist on the fields. Pretty nippy too at 10 degrees but felt colder. Pity it had to warm up and now it's 19 degrees. I'm looking forward to many, many more of those mornings.