Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Always? Nov 04 and 05 and 10 were great.

 

what about all the other years!

[syed2878]

Yay,I also have my winter head on early,must be this unseasonal cold evenings,soo excited it just feels right this year,well can't be worse than last year! And so it begins...! Well I was  looking at WSI seasonal forecast from September to November yesterday from what i read they going for a mild autumn for northern europ including the u.k. How ever they say it's a mixt signal for winter atm though there are some signs of a cold winter.

 

[gsteruk]

Ahh don't mention winter! The whole thread will be closed, the site banished then everyone arrested! Over reaction? So I closing every thread that dares address it as a topic lol

[stewfox]

Ahh don't mention winter! The whole thread will be closed, the site banished then everyone arrested! Over reaction? So I closing every thread that dares address it as a topic lol

 

The history as to why we cant mention winter yet

 

In Amsterdam in 1672, the actor playing Macbeth substituted the blunt stage dagger with a real one, and was killed

 

Ever since then its consider bad luck to say Macbeth in the theatre

 

http://www.answers.com/Q/Why_is_it_bad_luck_to_say_Macbeth_in_a_theatre

 

On this forum someone (I Brown ?) posted a winter forecast in early September for 1868/69 saying it would be very cold lots of snow

 

Turned out (CET records) to be the warmest winter we have had  in over 350 years.In the middle of Queen Victoria’s reign when temperatures averaged 6.8C (44.2F) forum went into melt down

 

Ever since then its forbidden to post/talk/joke about a Christmas pie sorry "winter forecast " till November 22nd hope this helps.

 

Back on topic feels very autumnal here

Edited August 26, 2014 by stewfox

[MP-R]

november frost and sun, would be great but november is always dominated by Atlantic lows, just like Dec, Jan and Feb

 

November's normally a lot more Atlantic dominated than February. In any normal winter the Atlantic should be abating throughout January. Of course that's over simplistic but personally I'm looking for a wet and stormy November along the lines of 2009 (but without the bad flooding) with an increasingly southerly tracking jet.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

November's normally a lot more Atlantic dominated than February. In any normal winter the Atlantic should be abating throughout January. Of course that's over simplistic but personally I'm looking for a wet and stormy November along the lines of 2009 (but without the bad flooding) with an increasingly southerly tracking jet.

 

yeah usually, feb still Atlantic dominated mostly, Dec the most westerly month of the year, 2nd probably Jan, 3rd probably Nov, 4th Feb

[MP-R]

Traditionally late January to late June is not a very westerly period. Looking back over the years October-mid Jan seems to get the longest westerly spells.

[gsteruk]

I don't see why because winter is obviously too far away for a sensible accurate guess of the conditions, that it still can't be discussed by people who wish to? Those who do know perfectly well the accuracy is terrible, but its not an exact science anyways. Its so embarrassing when some get so worked up about it, it really is childish.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just to whet the appetite for when we get towards the business part of Autumn - not bad for mid November.

 

[smith25]

The next 6 months could be interesting if bardarbunga blows soon and its a VEI 6...

[summer blizzard]

The next 6 months could be interesting if bardarbunga blows soon and its a VEI 6...

VEI6 eruptions are once a century, its highly doubtful.

[sundog]

So a return to summer next week,dont mind some nice summery days in early sept as long as it doesnt last too long. Weve had enough warm Autumns for much of the last 20 yrs or so, so it kind of gets on my nerves to see people egging on the warmth now as we enter another autumn.

[laserguy]

 Weve had enough warm Autumns for much of the last 20 yrs or so, so it kind of gets on my nerves to see people egging on the warmth now as we enter another autumn.

 

Ye they make me ill too, and I can't work 'em out anyway - like the England fans who continued to 'fly the flag' long after they'd been knocked out. Summer's had it's turn and been pretty good for those who like that sorta thing. I know we can't control the weather (try saying that on the climate change forum and you might get a ban) but the glorification of anything 'summery' at this juncture doesn't seem right at all, and is surely intended to annoy. With the leaves starting to fall it would be nice to have weather to match. Anything else is not necessarily 'wrong', just undesirable.

[Static Prevails]

I've become used to a warm start to autumn. I'm happy with a warm September and a warm spell in October but hopefully there's a lot of variety in this season. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Ye they make me ill too, and I can't work 'em out anyway - like the England fans who continued to 'fly the flag' long after they'd been knocked out. Summer's had it's turn and been pretty good for those who like that sorta thing. I know we can't control the weather (try saying that on the climate change forum and you might get a ban) but the glorification of anything 'summery' at this juncture doesn't seem right at all, and is surely intended to annoy. With the leaves starting to fall it would be nice to have weather to match. Anything else is not necessarily 'wrong', just undesirable.

Well given that Autumn 2013 ate up the whole of the following winter, then I think it deserves diddly squat, so summer until mid October and then bring on the northerlies

[cheese]

Ye they make me ill too, and I can't work 'em out anyway - like the England fans who continued to 'fly the flag' long after they'd been knocked out. Summer's had it's turn and been pretty good for those who like that sorta thing. I know we can't control the weather (try saying that on the climate change forum and you might get a ban) but the glorification of anything 'summery' at this juncture doesn't seem right at all, and is surely intended to annoy. With the leaves starting to fall it would be nice to have weather to match. Anything else is not necessarily 'wrong', just undesirable.

September and June are nearly identical in temperature. The only thing remotely autumnal about September is the shorter days. Egging on the arrival of autumn in September is a fool's game - the leaves do not start changing until October, and peak foliage occurs in November. It's like those who egg on the arrival of spring in March, and get upset when people search for cold weather in March - well, March is colder than November, and is fourth only after the three winter months in terms of snowiness, so why not?

 

September and March are part of the shoulder seasons - but they are closer to summer and winter respectively.

 

PS - do you have similar objections to people looking for cold weather beyond winter?

Edited August 27, 2014 by cheese

[laserguy]

.... the leaves do not start changing until October, and peak foliage occurs in November.

 

Really?? They're changing now, and it's only 5 days early to be championing autumn if you want to split hairs. The only 'peak' of foliage that occurs in November is on the ground, 'cos by then most trees have shed the lot.

[Bottesford]

Just look at March 2013 (and to be honest most of that 'spring') to see just how March & Sept are really part of the previous season weather wise but part of the next season light wise. Autumnal weather comes October onwards... lets just let the summer crops finish off in September - sure don't want them wiped out by any cold conditions just yet.

[cheese]

Really?? They're changing now, and it's only 5 days early to be championing autumn if you want to split hairs. The only 'peak' of foliage that occurs in November is on the ground, 'cos by then most trees have shed the lot.

I don't see any leaves changing - I see some leaves on the ground that have been blown off, but no yellows or reds or oranges - as you would expect from autumn foliage.

 

You seem to have a rather unrealistic idea of what autumn in the UK is like. I can't speak for South Yorkshire or whatever microclimate may be in place there, but peak foliage typically occurs in early November here, and by late November they will be mostly bare, but they can continue into December during mild years. Leaves can change colour even in the middle of summer, but it's likely to be unrelated to natural seasonal change but other things like blight.

Edited August 27, 2014 by cheese

[summer blizzard]

Normally here i'd say they start to turn in September but are not bare until November. That being said i have noticed trees turning here so suspect it's started early (though no guarantee that it won't stall or end up falling at the usual time).

[hillbilly]

September can be anything,summer or autumn,we have had much in the way of summer temps for the last couple of decades but there are still years like 1986 and 1952 that are much colder.I am sure also that Laserguy is aware that south Yorkshire[bawtry] holds the September high of 35 deg!!!

[damianslaw]

September and June are nearly identical in temperature. The only thing remotely autumnal about September is the shorter days. Egging on the arrival of autumn in September is a fool's game - the leaves do not start changing until October, and peak foliage occurs in November. It's like those who egg on the arrival of spring in March, and get upset when people search for cold weather in March - well, March is colder than November, and is fourth only after the three winter months in terms of snowiness, so why not?

 

September and March are part of the shoulder seasons - but they are closer to summer and winter respectively.

 

PS - do you have similar objections to people looking for cold weather beyond winter?

 

Yes September is certainly a 'shoulder' month when we see the northern hemisphere move away from its summer base state to its winter state - but tentatively and painfully slowly. It is very similar to March - a transitional time, but unlike March rarely delivers the sudden changes from warmth to cold, indeed I rate September the most benign of our months and a very uninteresting trying time for weather enthusiasts.

 

Autumnal conditions i.e. cool wet windy weather with misty chilly nights rarely makes its presence felt before the autumnal equinox. I often feel like fast forwarding September - but as I say it is a very mellow month and often an excellent month for doing stuff outdoors without the extremes that Spring can deliver.

[MP-R]

Ye they make me ill too, and I can't work 'em out anyway - like the England fans who continued to 'fly the flag' long after they'd been knocked out. Summer's had it's turn and been pretty good for those who like that sorta thing. I know we can't control the weather (try saying that on the climate change forum and you might get a ban) but the glorification of anything 'summery' at this juncture doesn't seem right at all, and is surely intended to annoy. With the leaves starting to fall it would be nice to have weather to match. Anything else is not necessarily 'wrong', just undesirable.

 

Where most of the time during the warmer half of the year I'm very much of the different opinion to you regarding the weather, I am probably as sick as you are that high pressure is returning next week. Unlike you, I wanted charts like that in August - summer. Similarly to you, I am hoping for the August-like charts to return in September. For me, nothing like a nice cool fresh September after a warm and sunny August. However it seems the weather is cocking it up for second month in a row.

 

I've certainly been spoiled by recent Septembers:

 

   

 

Moaning aside, I am ever so slightly excited for a colder winter, well, a winter at all. As I've said before, I'll be looking for the jet to track southwards big time by November.

Edited August 27, 2014 by MP-R

[smith25]

VEI6 eruptions are once a century, its highly doubtful.

you may have to eat your hat as reports are just now coming in that an eruption is underway in the bardarbunga cauldera. Hopefully its not a big bang!

[AderynCoch]

Ye they make me ill too, and I can't work 'em out anyway - like the England fans who continued to 'fly the flag' long after they'd been knocked out. Summer's had it's turn and been pretty good for those who like that sorta thing. I know we can't control the weather (try saying that on the climate change forum and you might get a ban) but the glorification of anything 'summery' at this juncture doesn't seem right at all, and is surely intended to annoy. With the leaves starting to fall it would be nice to have weather to match. Anything else is not necessarily 'wrong', just undesirable.

Many of us have been saying over the past couple of weeks that summer's not over yet. Can't say you weren't warned!

 

Personally I'm just glad the cool, windy, rainy days and shivering nights are being left behind for the time being. Not ready for that yet.