Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[cheeky_monkey]

In the form of images, this is how I would like each month of autumn to pan out.

ill take the middle one for all three please..no rain or snow just still dry and cool very nice indeed

[Mark Bayley]

In terms of the UK i'm hoping for something similar to the forecasts posted by WS. I will be taking note of snow cover advancement across Siberia. An easterly QBO, another year of rapid snow advancement and the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino should bode well for winter  

Edited August 2, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Temps down to 1c in Braemar last night. Hello Autumn !!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ill take the middle one for all three please..no rain or snow just still dry and cool very nice indeed

 

by a mile, I will take the third one

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Still dark at 5am - hello Autumn

[cheeky_monkey]

by a mile, I will take the third one

Boring

[Yarmy]

Another thing to bear in mind is the solar flux, in July supposedly it was shockingly above average, wheras sunspot numbers were a tad below. Am no expert however that to me probably indicates possibly another warm autumn coming up.

 

Solar flux and sunspot number are very strongly correlated and neither was particularly unusual in July. Activity goes up and down and will continue to do so with an underlying gradual decline towards solar min. No idea what it means for Autumn though (if anything?).

Edited August 6, 2014 by Yarmy

[laserguy]

Boring

 

It might be boring to you - familiarity breeds contempt an' all that, but even so it cannot,cannot be as boring as featureless blue skies. Ever.

[Captain Shortwave]

It might be boring to you - familiarity breeds contempt an' all that, but even so it cannot,cannot be as boring as featureless blue skies. Ever.

Featureless grey skies? 

[laserguy]

Featureless grey skies? 

 

Yes please - I'm now as heartily sick and tired of featureless (or very nearly featureless) blue ones as CM must be of seeing snow.

[Duane S.]

Another thing to bear in mind is the solar flux, in July supposedly it was shockingly above average, wheras sunspot numbers were a tad below. Am no expert however that to me probably indicates possibly another warm autumn coming up.

Really? Not that it was "shockingly above average" anyway but even if so, one (very indirect) factor such as solar flux hardly means we can draw that conclusion.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Not long now until we hear TV Weathermen telling us about 'a chance of some isolated frosts in the glens of Scotland'

 

Though, TBH, we could be looking at single figure nighttime minimas in England by next week

[StretfordEnd1996]

 

 

Though, TBH, we could be looking at single figure nighttime minimas in England by next week

This does happen occasionally though in August, since don't forget the average night time min in August for England (1981-2010 averages) is 11.5, so a single figure low is very acceptable although it depends how low it really would be. 

[Jakehainton]

I think Autumn is already on its way....can almost smell the bonfires!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hazelnuts in my garden are ready now !! They're usually still a bit milky/mushy in August. That's at least 2-3 wks ahead of normal.

[laserguy]

Hazelnuts in my garden are ready now !! They're usually still a bit milky/mushy in August. That's at least 2-3 wks ahead of normal.

 

Got a hazelnut tree in my garden smack in the middle of some elder - they're huge but not quite ready. I'll leave them for the squirrels anyway. But the elderberries are blacker than a blind cobbler's thumb and fit for bursting! Must make wine this week while I have time on my hands, otherwise I've blown it.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Got a hazelnut tree in my garden smack in the middle of some elder - they're huge but not quite ready. I'll leave them for the squirrels anyway. But the elderberries are blacker than a blind cobbler's thumb and fit for bursting! Must make wine this week while I have time on my hands, otherwise I've blown it.

 

Nice one, I tend to pad out sloe gin with elderberries and label it up as 'Hedgerow Gin'

[Lizard]

I have noticed the apples in my garden are also very close to being ready.

[snowsummer]

Apples in my neighbours garden long since dropped. And many of the trees round here have either lost leaves or are full of autumn brown ones already. Sign of a harsh winter maybe? I hope so...bring on the snow!!

[Sidsnake]

Just sitting in my garden having a glass of wine after clearing garden ready for the mystical months of Autumn. Definitely that Autumnal nip in the air this evening.

[Summer Sun]

Autumn and winter thoughts from Brian Gaze at the weather outlook

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?id=UK+autumn+and+winter+2014%2f15+weather

[summer blizzard]

Hope he's correct as a warm autumn would really make up for this unseasonably cold dross were having ATM.

 

Lord no, Autumn heat means humidity.

 

Give me a cool and west September and October before a settled November ensuring plenty of frost and sun.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Lord no, Autumn heat means humidity.

 

Give me a cool and west September and October before a settled November ensuring plenty of frost and sun.

 

november frost and sun, would be great but november is always dominated by Atlantic lows, just like Dec, Jan and Feb

[Weather-history]

Hope he's correct as a warm autumn would really make up for this unseasonably cold dross were having ATM.

The vast majority of this year has been above average.You can't really complain.

[summer blizzard]

november frost and sun, would be great but november is always dominated by Atlantic lows, just like Dec, Jan and Feb

 

Always? Nov 04 and 05 and 10 were great.