Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just based on previous Octobers with similar QBO and MEI values (to what's expected), this is the composite generated.

 

Quite a strong blocking signal to our north east.

[snowy weather]

Just based on previous Octobers with similar QBO and MEI values (to what's expected), this is the composite generated.

 

Quite a strong blocking signal to our north east.

 

 

what does that mean?

[fUnKy]

what does that mean?

Easterly flow I'd imagine

[snowy weather]

Easterly flow I'd imagine

Thank you.

 

sounds like really good news

[reef]

Thank you.

 

sounds like really good news

Not in October, its too early for anything cold enough and will just result in endless cloud.

[Timmytour]

As we sat in the garden two weeks ago on a really lovely warm September's day, my aunt, nearly 90 years old and having lived all her life on farms, remarked that she'd never seen swallows gather so early and with such "excitement".  "Mark my words"  she said "we'll be in for a surprise before the end of October....I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of snow"

Well as far as i can tell the outlook is very definitely stuck on continuing settled weather.....but if she turns out to be onto something I'll start paying a lot more attention to folklore! 

[BornFromTheVoid]

what does that mean?

 

It just means that on average, previous years with similar QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) and MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) values, to what's predicted this October, had higher sea level pressure to the north east. This would cause an increase in easterly flows, as fUnKy mentions. However, there are countless more known and unknown factors that influence the weather, so the two I selected are unlikely to be enough to predict Octobers weather.

But seeing as the signal of high pressure to the north east is so strong, it's probably slightly more likely to occur than in most Octobers.

[Timmytour]

Looking at previous years for a hint of what might be coming up....just for fun I know it's no real guide....but the way the models are showing the lead in to October makes me think the its like 1908....that wouldn't be the worst winter we could have to follow

[damianslaw]

Certainly a slow start to Autumn this year (in terms of weather), but we've been here before, nothing too unusual. Just a feeling but I suspect the 'switch' to autumn proper will when it comes be a very quick sudden and pronounced one.. and quite possibly a cold unsettled theme rather than a mild one.

[simshady]

I think I've had more early morning mist and fog this September than I had the whole of Autumn/Winter last year!

[Gavin Hannah]

Looks like autum could start getting under way this weekend with some cooler air mass coming in. Perhaps a switch to a more mobile pattern?

[Summer Sun]

UK set for driest September since records began

 

The UK is on course to have its driest September since records began, according to provisional figures released on Tuesday by the Met Office. The country received just 19.4mm of rain up to 28 September, about a fifth of the normal level. It has also been one of the warmest Septembers in the past century. But forecasters say the UK is set for a return to more normal conditions in early October - with cooler, wetter, and windier weather expected. The Met Office holds rainfall records going back to 1910. Before this year, the driest September was in 1959, when 23.8 mm of rain fell.

 

Northern Ireland was the driest part of the UK with just 6.5mm of rain, a mere seven percent of its average level. Scotland was the wettest, experiencing 33.3mm of rain. Even that is the second driest Scottish September in the record books. Forecaster Peter Sloss from the BBC Weather Centre said there was a probability of rain at the end of the month, but that it would be unlikely to stop the record being broken. "There is some rain expected on Tuesday, which may alter the headline figures," he said. "But it will only have a marginal impact."

 

October outlook

 

He said the dry spell had been caused by an area of high pressure which had dominated the UK's weather throughout September. "It built up at the end of August and it just stayed put," he explained. "The reason it stayed there was the jet stream, which diverted the areas of low pressure and the wetter weather towards Iceland." The provisional figures from the Met Office also show that it has been hotter than normal this September with a mean temperature of 13.9C (1.2C above the long-term average). That puts it joint fourth in the list of warmest Septembers since records began in 1910. But the outlook for October does not look so settled. "The first few days will see mainly dry, warm weather," said Peter Sloss. "But a front will bring a spell of wet and windy weather to Scotland and Northern Ireland on Friday, crossing England and Wales overnight. "Temperatures will fall away and we will be back to more normal mid-autumn weather."

 

No drought

 

The record low rainfall this month follows an exceptionally wet year so far, including torrential rain at the end of August and the wettest winter on record. Trevor Bishop, the Environment Agency's deputy director of water resources, said that means there's no danger of a dry September leading to water shortages. "We look ahead by modelling how rivers and groundwater may respond to different future rainfall patterns," he said. "The results show a broadly positive picture and even if rainfall is below average this autumn the country will not go into drought."

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29419202

Edited September 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Gael_Force]

If the Met Office contingency planners' forecasts is in any way on the money, all the above is about to be redressed big time.

 

 

Later in the autumn, computer models show remarkable similarity in showing a
transition to a much more cyclonic regime developing across the Atlantic and
northwestern Europe from mid-October onwards through November and into
December. This suggests a greater frequency of episodes of unsettled weather
relative to climatology.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

[h2005__uk__]

I recorded a mean max of 20.0C in September, compared to August's 20.6C. I'd consider September to be the warmer month overall though - the only reason August was higher than September is because the first week of August was very warm. There were only a few days which had maxima of >20C in mid-late August, whereas half of the September maxima were >20C.

 

I recorded 21.6C on Sunday - it's weird to think that I won't be seeing a temp like that again for another six months or so if the forecasts are anything to go by. This late burst of summer has been very welcome though; certainly goes some way to making up for the disappointment of August.

[matty007]

If most autumn days panned out like today has done, then I think autumn would be a very nice season. I had my first frost this morning and it's been sunny and clear all day. The morning was chilly and the afternoon was pleasantly mild. Add the changing leaves to the equation and today was a lovely day indeed.

 

Shame we don't get many days like today and the weather that makes me hate autumn so much starts this weekend...

 

 

I know how you feel. It was a wonderful September, second best after 2006 in my opinion, and a great start to October. Shame it's completely going to crap from here on in. I'd be quite happy with this weather all through Autumn.

 

That's October for you though really, my least favorite month of the year second to February. Obviously there are colder months than October, but it's the often stark switch over in weather and malting trees that really make me hate this month. All down hill until March-April. 

[Tony27]

never mind it's only a five month wait for mildies and joe public till it's spring again, we've had 7 months of mild/warm/hot weather, today was another summer like day i can't remember what a dull, cool wet day is like, it hasn't been cold for about 10 months and even then it was only about 5c or 6c, it's been 21 months since i last saw snow and now there are signs that we might see more warm weather later next week yet again, of course ask job public and they will say the uk is always wet and chilly, it's the biggest myth i've ever heard

Edited October 2, 2014 by Tony27

[laserguy]

Ye it's been a long time coming, Tony27  - but things can only,and will, get better from here on in after the worst September that I can personally recall.

[MP-R]

Personally I've never understood why everyone says it's wet and chilly in this country all the time. My cousin lives in London and says she loves the weather there (she is Brasilian!).

 

Certainly good news for weather enthusiasts this weekend with a change to more interesting weather. Sure, September has been great for not needing to worry about a brolly or putting an extra layer on but my word was it arduous.

[laserguy]

Personally I've never understood why everyone says it's wet and chilly in this country all the time.

 

Me neither - it's like all these dippy weather forecasters and folk who exclaim "it's raining again"! with a pained expression, when the reality is usually that we haven't had a drop for weeks and they've somehow missed the intervening dryness. It's all a state of mind, and a highly deluded one at that.

[Summer Sun]

The beebs week ahead video shows Autumn very much arriving with some heavy and persistent rain at times with strong to gale force winds http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/29477993

 

Sunday should be a sunnier day in the east, and improving picture from the south and Tuesday leading to a calmer sunny day on Wednesday with lighter winds though some rain may affect the south later in the day

 

Later next week and into next weekend they don't see much changing at this stage

 

 

So some wet and windy weather next week but also some sunnier spells with temps ranging from 13c (north) to 17c or 18c (south) if winds fall light over night and the sky is clear we could see some frosts in the north

[Summer Sun]

Today's looks like it will be the worst day the rest of the week looks like a mix of sunshine and showers and a gradual improvement in temperatures with 20c possible in some southern parts by Thursday and Friday

[hillbilly]

The first day of autumn here !!!

[matty007]

Was absolutely dismal here today. 12c and constant rain. Talk about a short sharp shock. 2 days ago it was sunny and 20c!!. 

 

This is what I hate about Autumn. It's not just cold, it's rainy and windy too. Terrible season. 

[Static Prevails]

I'd rather have wind and rain than cloudy dry nothingness. I wish the wind and rain would come at night though, it creates a great atmosphere. 

[SnowLover2010]

Today's looks like it will be the worst day the rest of the week looks like a mix of sunshine and showers and a gradual improvement in temperatures with 20c possible in some southern parts by Thursday and Friday

See you next Spring pal. Summer is over. Bring on the Frost and snow!