Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[matty007]

Yeah I'm out until March. No point being on here for the two seasons I loathe. Let the coldies have their turn. .I hope this Autumn and Winter brings you the weather you desire, even though I'm going into hibernation.

[Summer Sun]

What a difference 24 hours makes yesterday morning it was wet and windy, this morning its dry and sunny after a misty start, chilly as you would expect given the time of year but much improved on 24 hours ago

[AderynCoch]

Second horrible morning in a row here. Hope it clears up quickly like yesterday.

 

It must be really bad in parts of Scotland if they're under a rain warning and we're not! The Grampians will be getting a good pasting too.

[sundog]

Cool fresh morning with plenty of sunshine here,got down to 4.3c last night the coldest ive recorded so far this autumn. 8.6c atm

[Rob Heselwood]

It was wet and windy here this morning, just a typical autumn day I'd say.

[damianslaw]

A cold day here, with a mean of around 4-5 degrees only, min of 0- -1 degrees and a max of 9 degrees, more like winter than autumn.

[Richard2901]

Second horrible morning in a row here. Hope it clears up quickly like yesterday.

 

It must be really bad in parts of Scotland if they're under a rain warning and we're not! The Grampians will be getting a good pasting too.

 

Absolutely horrific here. I've had 92.8mm this month already - 112% of the full monthly average despite the 1st, 2nd and 5th all being bone dry. It's my second wettest week on record after 21st-27th October 2009 with 109mm.

 

Only the Isle of Man has also exceeded their full month rainfall average. The stark difference between there and here is that they enjoyed a very sunny September as opposed to the disgusting gloom and fog fest endured here.

 

Temperatures have been the typical post-1998 rubbish of average days combined with very mild nights. Still waiting for a colder temperature than was reached in August. Exactly 20 years ago we were enjoying ideal autumn conditions. Abundant sunshine with maxima of 16-19C and minima barely above freezing. As far removed from the present, and much of the past 15 autumns as it's possible to get. We rarely get any decent autumn conditions these days just endless southerly gloom.

 

I loathed the autumns of 2001, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011 plus last October. This one is worse than any of those. There is just no colour in the trees and following this weeks foul conditions many are becoming bare with piles of soggy green leaves clogging up the pavements 

 

2014 will go down as my most detested year no matter what happens now. That is a certainty

[feb1991blizzard]

ALL ABOARD THE RETROGRESSION TRAIN!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

    :yahoo:    

[Summer Sun]

21c in Gravesend at around 11am this morning could hit 23c this afternoon if the sun stays out long enogh

[Jax]

Not had much "bad" weather this autumn here, some long 'calm' spells and not too much rain, but enough to keep things ticking over.  From a natural POV I think it has been good for nature overall.  Still saving on the energy bills as it remains mild so a positive there IMHO, why spend money you do not have to?

[Summer Sun]

The beeb are expecting it to remain mild next week with the south seeing the driest weather and the north see some rain, the high to our south has a low chance of moving north which if it does will settle things down more widely for a time

 

[summer blizzard]

Coming up to November and i'm remembering my favourate November.. 2005. Near record warmth in the first 12 days, second half was the third coldest since 1952 at 1.6C (as a half i think colder than 2010).

 

Here is the 10th, a classic Bartlett..

 

 

And the change on the 12th resulted in this..

 

 

And then we got a freezing cold high (amazing - clear skies but as low as -14C in Scotland and -10C at Benson, proper inversion weather)..

 

 

And then finally another northerly (a very sharp gradiant - went to school at 11C at 9am - left school at 3pm - was 3C with a bone chilling wind - gave snow to the south west)..

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Coming up to November and i'm remembering my favourate November.. 2005. Near record warmth in the first 12 days, second half was the third coldest since 1952 at 1.6C (as a half i think colder than 2010).

 

Here is the 10th, a classic Bartlett..

 

 

And the change on the 12th resulted in this..

 

 

And then we got a freezing cold high (amazing - clear skies but as low as -14C in Scotland and -10C at Benson, proper inversion weather)..

 

 

And then finally another northerly (a very sharp gradiant - went to school at 11C at 9am - left school at 3pm - was 3C with a bone chilling wind - gave snow to the south west)..

 

 

Remember this very well. A cold front moved South giving heavy snow on its back edge. So much so a good covering was left the following morning as I played rugby in it! Could not even do my buttons up on my school shirt after, I was that cold!

[feb1991blizzard]

-6c isotherm into Scotland.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Before then this week could actually see summer making one last hurrah before Autumn truly kicks into gear as we enter October. The weekly BBC forecast has temperatures possibly hitting 20C for 3 of the 5 working days this week. Only Wednesday looks like seeing average temperatures. T-shirt only* for the last time this year perhaps. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/29778046

*Obviously I am wearing trousers as well   

Edited October 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just based on previous Octobers with similar QBO and MEI values (to what's expected), this is the composite generated.

 

Quite a strong blocking signal to our north east.

 

Unfortunately, the reanalysis data is stuck on the 22nd, but it seems that the blocking signal to the north east turned out to be real (or coincidence) going by the SLP anomalies for the first 22 days of the month. Not a perfect match, but useful I think.

 

 

Using the same method to predict the November pattern, we get the following

 

 

A very unsettled pattern there. If this turns out anywhere close to accurate, a very wet month could be on the cards.

[Summer Sun]

A cold snap to start next week with some frosty mornings before milder wetter weather returns later

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/29794071

Edited October 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

The persistence of the warm / mild weather this autumn has got my daffs and crocus bulbs poking through the ground already the previous record for me was late November so that is smashed by around 4 weeks

[feb1991blizzard]

Thought for a minute the 0z GFS was going to chuck up an undercutter but it was always odds against, The trough to the West just couldn't eject a shortwave or dig south far enough.

[feb1991blizzard]

That High would clean the polar regions up!!!    BANG!

[Summer Sun]

Officially the warmest Halloween on record and its only 11:30

 

Filton (South Gloucestershire) has hit 20.5c and its still rising

Edited October 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[reef]

In 35 years of records the 31st October and no date in November has ever surpassed 17.6C here, yet today we're already at 18.8C.

 

There's a slight easterly component to the wind so I think we'll miss out on hitting 20C, but if we did that would be even more exceptional as its never happened after 15th October.

[Tony27]

although it is 20c here its a completely different feeling to how 20c feels in mid summer this is far more pleasant for me

[Summer Sun]

23.5C has been recorded in Gravesend, Kent, making it the warmest Halloween on record which beats the previous record of 20.0c which was first set in Dartford, Kent, 1968 then equaled in 1989 in north-eastern parts of Greater London

[Weather-history]

23.5C has been recorded in Gravesend, Kent, making it the warmest Halloween on record which beats the previous record of 20.0c which was first set in Dartford, Kent, 1968 then equaled in 1989 in north-eastern parts of Greater London

Compared that with Halloween 1934 when it snowed in places