Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...

[CongletonHeat]

Hoping for frequent warm/mild southerlies and periods of high pressure in September and October. Later into November the Atlantic can fire up and the gales can commence.

And then the warm/mild southerlies continue from November 30th.

 

Don't know why this post has been deleted twice, it's just my preference which people are allowed to post on the summer thread.

Edited July 24, 2014 by CongletonHeat

[AderynCoch]

And then the deep Arctic northerlies commence on December 1st, not letting up until some time in March.

[CongletonHeat]

And then the deep Arctic northerlies commence on December 1st, not letting up until some time in March.

Sorry this post is about winter so must be deleted.

[cheeky_monkey]

And then the warm/mild southerlies continue from November 30th.

 

Don't know why this post has been deleted twice, it's just my preference which people are allowed to post on the summer thread.

maybe because its about the winter and not autumn?

[CongletonHeat]

maybe because its about the winter and not autumn?

Was thinking that, then I read post 48.

[AderynCoch]

Sorry this post is about winter so must be deleted.

Well December is an autumn month if you believe what some people on here say.

 

Anyway I was wrong - the change will take place on the evening of November 30th.

[reef]

And then the warm/mild southerlies continue from November 30th.

 

Don't know why this post has been deleted twice, it's just my preference which people are allowed to post on the summer thread.

Its was removed twice for two reasons. The first was this is Autumn discussion and the second was that it was clearly designed to wind up people. If we get to Autumn and there's weather you don't like, then by all means post about it (like people are in the summer thread who dislike the heat), but don't just post throwaway comments designed to get people's backs up.

 

There's far too much in the way of partisan posting in this and the summer thread, it needs to stop now.

[Milhouse]

And then the warm/mild southerlies continue from November 30th.

 

Don't know why this post has been deleted twice, it's just my preference which people are allowed to post on the summer thread.

 

 If we were to continue with such positive anomalies for the rest of the year we would smash the record for the warmest year on record. Quite some feat. A lot of time between now and the end of the year though.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Milhouse

[Don]

 If we were to continue with such positive anomalies for the rest of the year we would smash the record for the warmest year on record. Quite some feat. A lot of time between now and the end of the year though.

 

We're certainly on track for the warmest year on record.  A marked cool down is going to have to happen soon to prevent this from occurring.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

Was thinking that, then I read post 48.

 

My post was encompassing the QBO state which will have an effect throughout both autumn and winter. Personally I see autumn and winter as one anyway (just like spring and summer) and I'm hardly posting with the intention to cause trouble....unlike some.

[CongletonHeat]

Its was removed twice for two reasons. The first was this is Autumn discussion and the second was that it was clearly designed to wind up people. If we get to Autumn and there's weather you don't like, then by all means post about it (like people are in the summer thread who dislike the heat), but don't just post throwaway comments designed to get people's backs up.

 

There's far too much in the way of partisan posting in this and the summer thread, it needs to stop now.

It wasn't designed to wind up people at  all, if a simple post like that is the definition of what you delete then half the summer thread would be gone.

My post was encompassing the QBO state which will have an effect throughout both autumn and winter. Personally I see autumn and winter as one anyway (just like spring and summer) and I'm hardly posting with the intention to cause trouble....unlike some.

I've seen you post CFS charts for December in the middle of last summers MOD thread so you are hardly in any position to criticise.

 

 

Anyway I really dislike the coldie/mildie aspect of these threads so will not post in this thread from now on, or the winter one when that begins.

Edited July 24, 2014 by CongletonHeat

[Cheshire Freeze]

It wasn't designed to wind up people at all, if a simple post like that is the definition of what you delete then half the summer thread would be gone.I've seen you post CFS charts for December in the middle of last summers MOD thread so you are hardly in any position to criticise.Anyway I really dislike the coldie/mildie aspect of these threads so will not post in this thread from now on, or the winter one when that begins.

Whatever, you seem to have an attitude for some reason after rightly being called out. My post in the Mod thread last year was actually part of a longer technical post which went into more depth than simply 'I don't like nasty, evil winter and hope warm southerlys are perpetually pumped up across the country'. We get it, you hate winter.Anyway, this is a weather discussion forum, I don't want to argue over what realistically boils down to personal preference. Edited July 25, 2014 by CreweCold

[Turnedoutniceagain]

First day back at work for 3 weeks (hols in France & Cornwall) and it was a lot darker when my 5am alarm clock went off - always signals the start of autumn for me.

 

Garden's in full swing for the coming months: Holly berries turning red, Rowan trees growning with red berries, brambles turning from green to black, 'Lords & Ladies' popping up, damsons nearly there, hazelnuts getting fatter by the day......etc

Other signs - emails from my coal & wood supplier, local paper full of ads for Christmas lunches/Seasonal Menus - only 149 days until Christmas

[Bobby]

Signs in the models that the Atlantic is stirring from its usual April-July slumber. August marks the end of the dry season here (April - July: average 95mm. August: average 125mm) and some years it can indeed feel like an early Autumn month. Here's hoping. Would love an early Autumn after this dry and very warm summer so far. Looking forward to those nights drawing in, the first nip in the air, the first Autumn gales winding up, the changing colours, the lovely fresh, earthy smell, bring it on.

[summer blizzard]

Signs in the models that the Atlantic is stirring from its usual April-July slumber. August marks the end of the dry season here (April - July: average 95mm. August: average 125mm) and some years it can indeed feel like an early Autumn month. Here's hoping. Would love an early Autumn after this dry and very warm summer so far. Looking forward to those nights drawing in, the first nip in the air, the first Autumn gales winding up, the changing colours, the lovely fresh, earthy smell, bring it on.

While I've disliked the humidity this summer I do like sun and heat from May-July with August being Autumn. If that is the way this summer is going (ala 2010) then I'll certainly be happy.

[Bobby]

While I've disliked the humidity this summer I do like sun and heat from May-July with August being Autumn. If that is the way this summer is going (ala 2010) then I'll certainly be happy.

 

The start to winter that year wasn't bad either!

[laserguy]

Amidst the growing excitement, don't forget that the highest ever UK temp was scored in August - the spectre of something as cataclysmic as that happening again can't be overlooked however unlikely, and why August cannot be trusted! But ye for all its potential or realised heat and humidity, there are changes aplenty during August which herald the turn of the seasons. It's always a full-on summer month to me tho' for the most part, but there comes a day towards the end when something subtle but profound changes and you know it's summer's swansong, death throes before the encroaching Autumn with it's darkening days,smells,atmosphere,mood, foliage changes,sky hues etc conspire to deliver one fatal blow and then it's all over. Can't wait and it's good to watch unfold in the meantime!

[Stormyking]

Am for one looking forward to the Prospects of Autumn, Darker mornings, easier to sleep for sure. But am also looking forwards to Autumnal weather, rain, gales, sunshine, mist/fog, frosts and Autumn coastal Thunderstorms .

 

I doubt ill be staying in Guernsey for ever, but from what ive heard in the past, channel islands can be quite an active place in the Autumn ( I hope ).

 

Being an all round weather enthusiast, I will also mist the summer for sure, still a whole month to go yet, but roll on the cooler Autumn temperatures  

[cheeky_monkey]

Amidst the growing excitement, don't forget that the highest ever UK temp was scored in August - the spectre of something as cataclysmic as that happening again can't be overlooked however unlikely, and why August cannot be trusted! But ye for all its potential or realised heat and humidity, there are changes aplenty during August which herald the turn of the seasons. It's always a full-on summer month to me tho' for the most part, but there comes a day towards the end when something subtle but profound changes and you know it's summer's swansong, death throes before the encroaching Autumn with it's darkening days,smells,atmosphere,mood, foliage changes,sky hues etc conspire to deliver one fatal blow and then it's all over. Can't wait and it's good to watch unfold in the meantime!

you would absolutely love the autumn on the Canadian prairies there is something magical about this season that I have not experienced anywhere else..by mid August you can sense the approach of the coming winter everything bursts into autumnal colours regardless of the weather..so by the beginning of September trees are awash with the colours yellow, orange and red..the grass has stop growing and you get some fabulous sunrises and sunsets as the evenings and mornings grow cooler.

[laserguy]

you would absolutely love the autumn on the Canadian prairies ....

 

 

 

Sounds awesome, and I bet the winters aren't half bad either!

[damianslaw]

Amidst the growing excitement, don't forget that the highest ever UK temp was scored in August - the spectre of something as cataclysmic as that happening again can't be overlooked however unlikely, and why August cannot be trusted! But ye for all its potential or realised heat and humidity, there are changes aplenty during August which herald the turn of the seasons. It's always a full-on summer month to me tho' for the most part, but there comes a day towards the end when something subtle but profound changes and you know it's summer's swansong, death throes before the encroaching Autumn with it's darkening days,smells,atmosphere,mood, foliage changes,sky hues etc conspire to deliver one fatal blow and then it's all over. Can't wait and it's good to watch unfold in the meantime!

 

I echo your sentiments, whilst August in the main definitely always feels like true summer still, there is a notable yet subtle change as we move through the second half of the month in particular, helped not least in part by the decreasing levels of light. Indeed late August can feel positively autumnal here on occasion when we are exposed to a atlantic blast - even more so in NW Scotland. August also is on average a much wetter month than any of the preceding 6 months here. August definitely marks the start of the wettest half of the year August - January. For me 'high summer' ends around the 12th August, we then move into 'late summer' which roughly lasts through until mid September.

 

Right now though we are firmly in high summer territory and traditionally the warmest part of the year.. summer in its prime.

Edited July 28, 2014 by damianslaw

[cheeky_monkey]

Sounds awesome, and I bet the winters aren't half bad either!

Winters drag on far too long...looking forward to spring come the end of November.

[Guest HectorTheAwesome]

My post was encompassing the QBO state which will have an effect throughout both autumn and winter. Personally I see autumn and winter as one anyway (just like spring and summer) and I'm hardly posting with the intention to cause trouble....unlike some.

 

 

All you do is take some charts showing previous years' QBO and such, and compare it with the weather at that time, then with this "pattern matching" you attempt to suggest that a forecast QBO state will mean a certain type of weather coming up.... not called being a meteorologist - that is a fools game - you should realise that you as anybody has no idea what the weather pattern will be like in two weeks time, let alone in winter. Also, winter is far more like spring than autumn regarding temperatures, frost and snow likelihood. Wrong wrong and wrong again. In crewe you will be lucky to see more than a few flakes of snow even in a "good" winter.

[Richard2901]

Couldn't think of anything worse than yet another disgusting mild southerly dross dominated autumn but given the way this year has gone it wouldn't be surprising.

 

Last year September and November were decent but the putrid October spoiled the autumn completely. The vile, cloudy drizzly southerlies and ridiculously mild nights give the most lame and pathetic autumn colours imaginable (as with similarly atrocious autumns of 2006 and 2011) and trees remained green into December. So it is really October that needs to be colder and sunnier with cool nights and frost more like 2003 and 2012 to give a good display of colour.

 

2012 really was a great autumn. Much welcome after the worst summer on record. It was in fact the only time autumn was sunnier than summer. Every weekend was sunny apart from one (13th/14th Oct) and I really wish this good luck could extend to summer for once. The only bad spell of weather was an easterly in October which largely coincided with me being in the Canaries. I came back on 26th October to an incredible snowfall for the time of year - must have been about 10cm around Laurencekirk - and is easily the most potent northerly since 2010. It didn't last long but exceptional for October.

[Weather-history]

In the form of images, this is how I would like each month of autumn to pan out.

For meSeptember

October

November