The No Storms Club July 2014 Onwards

[Costa Del Fal]

Already seen storms in Falmouth earlier this year but for Stourbridge I'm out easily tonight with 2 main storms and about 2 hours of very regular lightning Flickering in the background in addition to the main courses.

[Snowshine]

I am OUT! Without a doubt! 

That storm was one in a lifetime - one whole hour of constant lightning!

[Buzzard]

I would have been out at home in LB, but here in Poole, out in style. Just WOW!

[cotswoldsnow]

brilliant sunshine after some lightning!!

 

i'm watching out for a "home grown" in the sw cotswolds

[Shane Wheeldon]

Still here storms avoid shropshire like the plague shocker!!

[cheese]

I can now hand in my membership at long last.

[Snowyowl9]

I`m not out as quite frequent lightning without thunder doesn`t count,and it was the mini cg type too,at least I havn`t seen that for over a decade so that was good to see again.

[davehsug]

Not entirely sure if I'm out or not. We had 2 "events" last night, but neither were overhead. I did however have more or less continuous lightning visible for about 2 hours. There were probably only about 20 minutes of this when thunder could be heard though.

What do members think, in or out?

[IanR]

Not entirely sure if I'm out or not. We had 2 "events" last night, but neither were overhead. I did however have more or less continuous lightning visible for about 2 hours. There were probably only about 20 minutes of this when thunder could be heard though.

What do members think, in or out?

hmmmm no overhead storm but 2 hours lightning display with some rumbles in,  I think that can just about release you  ,  but you will need to be tagged  , and your back in if you dont get another storm in the summer period 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm out based purely on Wed evening. Seeing such explosive development overhead was immense.

[cotswoldsnow]

well done england's women!!!!!!!

[AndyR]

Didn't get anything in sussex. Was really looking forward to them storms but nothing happened. All kicked off to the north of sussex

[Summer of 95]

Still in, not heard anything other than distant rumbles, I mean virtually the whole country got a show on Wed or Fri but not here. The last time I had anything like what many people were describing then? June 2005.

[Cloudwatcher]

Still in, not heard anything other than distant rumbles, I mean virtually the whole country got a show on Wed or Fri but not here. The last time I had anything like what many people were describing then? June 2005.

If you heard distant rumbles you got more than me! Was truly soul destroying how the storms of the other night somehow managed to split east and north.

[Snowyowl9]

Thundering here now hmmm

[Shane Wheeldon]

Thundering here now hmmm

Sure its not bin day tomorrow?

[lassie23]

I can now hand in my membership at long last.

Can you get me in as a guest, not had a proper storm for a while now, always on the edge, so I don't qualify fully.

[davehsug]

hmmmm no overhead storm but 2 hours lightning display with some rumbles in,  I think that can just about release you  ,  but you will need to be tagged  , and your back in if you dont get another storm in the summer period 

Tag in place. 1 rumble this afternoon, so membership safe for now.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Still here. Starting to get that uneasy feeling...

It's not going to be one of those storm free summers again...is it?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I should be in here by rights but I drove to Harpenden and sat under a megastorm - so am I out?

Godalming missed out on Friday - but I knew that was going to happen hence my evasive action!

[Severe Blizzard]

Right, Grumble Time.

 

The purpose of this post is to evaluate and illustrate that 2015 is a truly dire year in central Southern England and the examples given prove how there has been plenty of bad luck here this year and that interesting events have been lacking in a major way. I will also be exploring a bizarre coincidence about the timing of these all-too-frequent let-downs with thunderstorm events. 

 

2015 needs to be called 'The Year of the Let-Down'. 

 

Background: Winter 2014/2015 was the second consecutive virtually snow-free winter in Guildford and unlike in 2013/2014, there was frequent emphasis on snow further north, especially in January when 'cold zonality' was the dominant synoptic situation. Snow even fell in Cornwall, accompanied by thunder on the 13th.The month was beginning to be like January 1984, when Central Southern England (hereafter CSE) missed out badly on the heavier snow which affected the Midlands northwards. Unlike 2015, 1984 went on to be a good year for thunder events in a 'good' but not roasting hot summer. 

 

Last winter was subjectively the most unpleasant for 9 years, 2005/2006, which was also snow-less with local areas missing out while much of the U.K. had some snow. The main issue in 05/06 was the constant 'promise' of a major easterly freeze which was dominating the rest of Europe, moving west. Although frequently indicated, this surge of exceptionally cold air and heavy snow never made it into the S.E. 2006 went on to produce a memorable summer and some very thundery weather, although IMO, we did not do too well for quality of thunder events in Guildford and just had a lot of days when thunder was heard (23 days). Interestingly, the first thunder of 2006 was very late (8th May) like this year (19th May), the moral of this being that the second half of the year could perform very well indeed and catch up. 

 

I will keep this report to the issues with lack of thunder rather than other niggles about 2015, of which there are plenty. Suffice to say. 2015 has also been a very dry year, the current rainfall standing at around 250 mm, in 2014, this level having been reached by mid-February! The dryness is fine, but it would be great if it could be accompanied by proper anticyclonic weather with sunshine, light winds and little cloud and not and endless procession of weak or mediocre Atlantic fronts from the west accompanied by a frequent nuisance breeze, which is now blowing much dust around as the ground is now so dry. Today, the status of absolute drought has been reached as there has been no measurable rain for 14 days. Despite the dryness in 2015, this is the first time the drought threshold has been reached as the usual scenario of a mediocre amount of rain arriving at the 11th hour on the 13th day prevents the threshold being reached. The grumbles about another Atlantic dominated year will also be left out of this report.

 

Thunderstorm let-downs versus successes in Guildford in 2015: Here is a comprehensive list of thunder events that I remember in 2015 so far and illustrates how badly we have done this year.

 

(1) Tuesday 13^th January: Unstable westerly. Heavy rain at lunchtime, heavy enough to expect thunder. Get none and find thunder was widespread locally, including Bracknell, Wokingham and Reading. Evening brought another ‘trough’ which gave severe hailstorm, heavy snow and covering accompanied by thunder at Par, Cornwall.

(2) Sunday 1^st March: Afternoon torrential rain, Thunder really expected from the warnings in forecast. None heard locally but plenty further east towards London including Croydon.
(3) Tuesday 3^rd March: Coastal showers with thunder not too far south. See one flash at 5:30 am on bike ride then soaked in horrid cold rain (raining at 1.5~3 deg.C with not a trace of sleet, snow or even hail).
(4) Tuesday 19^th May – 1^st thunder of 2015: Thundery showers in general area. Afternoon thunder from thundery showers to south and north missing Guildford. Spectacular hail at Woking and eastern Guildford, <2 miles from my address.
(5) Friday 29^th May: Squally cold front just after midday. Heavy rain. Thunder was reported from Horsley, about 6 miles to east. None heard here.

(6) Friday 5^th June: Plume failure No.1. Dry with medium level threatening cloud in morning. Thunder over Kent and Sussex and as far west as east Surrey, just too far away to hear locally.

(7) Friday 12^th/Saturday 13^th June: Plume failure No.2. Almost identical to previous week except the storms persist in Kent and move north in evening. Muffled rumble heard at Fleet around 10 pm. Lightning but no thunder reported from Guildford.
( Saturday 20^th June: Instability with approaching cold front. Brief heavy rain. Thunder heard in north Guildford, none where I was, despite working outdoors during entire event!
(9) Tuesday 30^th June – Second thunder event of 2015: Only ‘surprise’ event of year with <5 lightning flashes and thunder just after 10 pm in hot and increasingly unstable.
(10) Wednesday 1^st July: Severe thunderstorms further north. Their forecast being very accurate and spot on. Guildford misses out again – this was expected but not a satisfactory event.
(11) Thursday 2^nd July: Major heat breaks down with a puff of wind locally and more storms up north. Thundery showers were forecast for CSE so this was yet another total flop and just like that awful 28^th June 2012, with the Newcastle area getting hammered by golf ball sized hail, again while we get altocumulus castellanus and an unstable sky to the east and fluffy cumulus blowing in on the increasingly fresh breeze from the S.W. signalling another ‘game over’ before it even had a chance to begin.

(12) Friday 3^rd/Saturday 4^th July – Third thunder event of 2015 but only just: The definitive event to get excited about with potential for something special. Two cells develop as per forecast and move north leaving an inverted ‘V’ in CSE with NO lightning activity. See some distant lightning and 20 minutes of thunder at Fleet just after midnight. Slight shower. Major event over Kent, London, Dorset and Wilshire moving north so northern areas get another major event.

(13) Sunday 5^th July: Another Kent and east based event, although slight. 15 mm rain forecast for Guildford from west returning warm front fails to move far enough west. Dry all day. Thundery showers over northern England, possibly more widespread than originally forecast.
(14) Monday 6^th July: Some isolated thundery showers in Northern England.
(15) Tuesday 7^th July: Rain on fronts was lighter than forecast, so much that amount that fell was not measurable. Thunder develops further north over the usual areas including Lincolnshire… again. No chance of anything further south and that irritating breeze is picking up again instead.       

 

On Saturday 28^th June, looking at the maps for 1^st/2^nd July with the emphasis on the north having all the storms and after all those annoying east-shunted Kent clippers in June, I had a horrible thought that July may be north dominated month for storms, here on 7^th July it looks like this thought was justified. Maybe the first week of July but can’t see anything remotely worthwhile next week and the S.W.ly dross is back anyway, so no chance for Guildford.

 

One expects to miss some events but not miss out EVERY time such as what is happening in 2015, and after such a long absence of thunder beforehand. Thunder somewhere in the UK every day in July so far, last time there was more than 4 days of thunder heard in a month was April 2008!

 

Coincidences about thunder let-down event dates:

Many of the let-downs, especially with the plume-type have occurred on a Friday / Saturday. This pattern started in September 2014, the boundary where the pleasing increased thundery activity in 2014 returned to the typical scenario suffered in the preceding 7 years. Friday 19^th/Saturday 20^th September 2014 brought a surprise plume event after 2 days of mediocre activity locally. This missed CSE / local areas by the usual 20~30 miles and affected east London and Kent. Similarly in October, Thursday 9^th brought thundery showers locally. This was the last thunder I heard in 2014 and would have to wait until 19^th May for the next. Meanwhile on Friday 10^th and Saturday 11^th, continued south coastal showers brought more thunderstorms to Kent and inland into Sussex and east London, just too far away to see the cloud-top flashes from Guildford. Similarly, in November, there was thundery shower activity along the south coast from about the 3^rd~9^th but not one single distant flash was seen nor did any of this activity survive the 40 mile trip inland. Thundery showers from coastal events in unstable SW airflow often affect Guildford in the autumn.

It is also strange that all these Friday night / Saturday morning fail events have occurred at ‘weekends’ when I have visited my father in Fleet (Hampshire), an area that is even more storm-starved than Guildford. My visits are planned months in advance due to working hours and commitments so it was not just going away on a whim when these let-down situations develop.

Furthermore, a half-hearted breakdown occurred on Friday 6^th/Saturday 7^th June 2014, hours before I went to Cornwall. On arrival I was told that the storm on the evening of the 6^th at Par Beach was quite impressive. The only impressive Friday night / Saturday morning event to affect Guildford in the last 13 months in this discussion in an impressive capacity was a week later when a 3~4 hour ‘surprise’ southward slow moving area of thunderstorms brought 43 mm rain. Quite typically, this occurred the night before I arrived home – culminating in the worst missed-storm event I have ever had my misfortune to experience. There have been plenty of these over the years. To add to the bad luck, the work security camera system failed to record the event, the cameras failing 5 pm on the 13^th and working by 9 am, Saturday 14^th. I am so fearful about missing interesting weather when on holiday that since 1995 or so I have asked people to take notes in my absence! It seems the chances of interesting weather at my holiday venue are never reciprocated. I thought the security camera idea would work well as it has a view of the car park where the intensity of the rain and lightning could be watched against a time-base. I was convinced correctly that something would kick off while away. Even the security guard was upset on my behalf about the camera failure and bad luck as he thought I might have at last circumvented the bad-luck curse that shadows me with anything meteorologically interesting.      

 

Needless to say, constant disappointment missing out on much wanted and craved for thunder events saps morale and there is plenty of time to fester about the frustration with little else to on which to focus and the boring atlantic S.W.ly dross has now returned again and probably take months to shift again. This boredom is especially when at work and unable to spend time on activities and hobbies including cycling which actually makes good use of the boring conditions provided that infernal wind isn’t blowing, and therefore can take mind off the boredom.   

 

Sorry for the length of this post, but I really wanted to have my say this time.    

[Dami]

since I missed out last night, I can return to my beloved club and watch all the you tubes on the big screen in the lounge, drink in hand. Surprised not one else is here

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Right, Grumble Time.

The purpose of this post is to evaluate and illustrate that 2015 is a truly dire year in central Southern England and the examples given prove how there has been plenty of bad luck here this year and that interesting events have been lacking in a major way. I will also be exploring a bizarre coincidence about the timing of these all-too-frequent let-downs with thunderstorm events.

2015 needs to be called 'The Year of the Let-Down'.

Background: Winter 2014/2015 was the second consecutive virtually snow-free winter in Guildford and unlike in 2013/2014, there was frequent emphasis on snow further north, especially in January when 'cold zonality' was the dominant synoptic situation. Snow even fell in Cornwall, accompanied by thunder on the 13th.The month was beginning to be like January 1984, when Central Southern England (hereafter CSE) missed out badly on the heavier snow which affected the Midlands northwards. Unlike 2015, 1984 went on to be a good year for thunder events in a 'good' but not roasting hot summer.

Last winter was subjectively the most unpleasant for 9 years, 2005/2006, which was also snow-less with local areas missing out while much of the U.K. had some snow. The main issue in 05/06 was the constant 'promise' of a major easterly freeze which was dominating the rest of Europe, moving west. Although frequently indicated, this surge of exceptionally cold air and heavy snow never made it into the S.E. 2006 went on to produce a memorable summer and some very thundery weather, although IMO, we did not do too well for quality of thunder events in Guildford and just had a lot of days when thunder was heard (23 days). Interestingly, the first thunder of 2006 was very late (8th May) like this year (19th May), the moral of this being that the second half of the year could perform very well indeed and catch up.

I will keep this report to the issues with lack of thunder rather than other niggles about 2015, of which there are plenty. Suffice to say. 2015 has also been a very dry year, the current rainfall standing at around 250 mm, in 2014, this level having been reached by mid-February! The dryness is fine, but it would be great if it could be accompanied by proper anticyclonic weather with sunshine, light winds and little cloud and not and endless procession of weak or mediocre Atlantic fronts from the west accompanied by a frequent nuisance breeze, which is now blowing much dust around as the ground is now so dry. Today, the status of absolute drought has been reached as there has been no measurable rain for 14 days. Despite the dryness in 2015, this is the first time the drought threshold has been reached as the usual scenario of a mediocre amount of rain arriving at the 11th hour on the 13th day prevents the threshold being reached. The grumbles about another Atlantic dominated year will also be left out of this report.

Thunderstorm let-downs versus successes in Guildford in 2015: Here is a comprehensive list of thunder events that I remember in 2015 so far and illustrates how badly we have done this year.

(1) Tuesday 13^th January: Unstable westerly. Heavy rain at lunchtime, heavy enough to expect thunder. Get none and find thunder was widespread locally, including Bracknell, Wokingham and Reading. Evening brought another ‘trough’ which gave severe hailstorm, heavy snow and covering accompanied by thunder at Par, Cornwall.

(2) Sunday 1^st March: Afternoon torrential rain, Thunder really expected from the warnings in forecast. None heard locally but plenty further east towards London including Croydon.

(3) Tuesday 3^rd March: Coastal showers with thunder not too far south. See one flash at 5:30 am on bike ride then soaked in horrid cold rain (raining at 1.5~3 deg.C with not a trace of sleet, snow or even hail).

(4) Tuesday 19^th May – 1^st thunder of 2015: Thundery showers in general area. Afternoon thunder from thundery showers to south and north missing Guildford. Spectacular hail at Woking and eastern Guildford, <2 miles from my address.

(5) Friday 29^th May: Squally cold front just after midday. Heavy rain. Thunder was reported from Horsley, about 6 miles to east. None heard here.

(6) Friday 5^th June: Plume failure No.1. Dry with medium level threatening cloud in morning. Thunder over Kent and Sussex and as far west as east Surrey, just too far away to hear locally.

(7) Friday 12^th/Saturday 13^th June: Plume failure No.2. Almost identical to previous week except the storms persist in Kent and move north in evening. Muffled rumble heard at Fleet around 10 pm. Lightning but no thunder reported from Guildford.

( Saturday 20^th June: Instability with approaching cold front. Brief heavy rain. Thunder heard in north Guildford, none where I was, despite working outdoors during entire event!

(9) Tuesday 30^th June – Second thunder event of 2015: Only ‘surprise’ event of year with <5 lightning flashes and thunder just after 10 pm in hot and increasingly unstable.

(10) Wednesday 1^st July: Severe thunderstorms further north. Their forecast being very accurate and spot on. Guildford misses out again – this was expected but not a satisfactory event.

(11) Thursday 2^nd July: Major heat breaks down with a puff of wind locally and more storms up north. Thundery showers were forecast for CSE so this was yet another total flop and just like that awful 28^th June 2012, with the Newcastle area getting hammered by golf ball sized hail, again while we get altocumulus castellanus and an unstable sky to the east and fluffy cumulus blowing in on the increasingly fresh breeze from the S.W. signalling another ‘game over’ before it even had a chance to begin.

(12) Friday 3^rd/Saturday 4^th July – Third thunder event of 2015 but only just: The definitive event to get excited about with potential for something special. Two cells develop as per forecast and move north leaving an inverted ‘V’ in CSE with NO lightning activity. See some distant lightning and 20 minutes of thunder at Fleet just after midnight. Slight shower. Major event over Kent, London, Dorset and Wilshire moving north so northern areas get another major event.

(13) Sunday 5^th July: Another Kent and east based event, although slight. 15 mm rain forecast for Guildford from west returning warm front fails to move far enough west. Dry all day. Thundery showers over northern England, possibly more widespread than originally forecast.

(14) Monday 6^th July: Some isolated thundery showers in Northern England.

(15) Tuesday 7^th July: Rain on fronts was lighter than forecast, so much that amount that fell was not measurable. Thunder develops further north over the usual areas including Lincolnshire… again. No chance of anything further south and that irritating breeze is picking up again instead.

On Saturday 28^th June, looking at the maps for 1^st/2^nd July with the emphasis on the north having all the storms and after all those annoying east-shunted Kent clippers in June, I had a horrible thought that July may be north dominated month for storms, here on 7^th July it looks like this thought was justified. Maybe the first week of July but can’t see anything remotely worthwhile next week and the S.W.ly dross is back anyway, so no chance for Guildford.

One expects to miss some events but not miss out EVERY time such as what is happening in 2015, and after such a long absence of thunder beforehand. Thunder somewhere in the UK every day in July so far, last time there was more than 4 days of thunder heard in a month was April 2008!

Coincidences about thunder let-down event dates:

Many of the let-downs, especially with the plume-type have occurred on a Friday / Saturday. This pattern started in September 2014, the boundary where the pleasing increased thundery activity in 2014 returned to the typical scenario suffered in the preceding 7 years. Friday 19^th/Saturday 20^th September 2014 brought a surprise plume event after 2 days of mediocre activity locally. This missed CSE / local areas by the usual 20~30 miles and affected east London and Kent. Similarly in October, Thursday 9^th brought thundery showers locally. This was the last thunder I heard in 2014 and would have to wait until 19^th May for the next. Meanwhile on Friday 10^th and Saturday 11^th, continued south coastal showers brought more thunderstorms to Kent and inland into Sussex and east London, just too far away to see the cloud-top flashes from Guildford. Similarly, in November, there was thundery shower activity along the south coast from about the 3^rd~9^th but not one single distant flash was seen nor did any of this activity survive the 40 mile trip inland. Thundery showers from coastal events in unstable SW airflow often affect Guildford in the autumn.

It is also strange that all these Friday night / Saturday morning fail events have occurred at ‘weekends’ when I have visited my father in Fleet (Hampshire), an area that is even more storm-starved than Guildford. My visits are planned months in advance due to working hours and commitments so it was not just going away on a whim when these let-down situations develop.

Furthermore, a half-hearted breakdown occurred on Friday 6^th/Saturday 7^th June 2014, hours before I went to Cornwall. On arrival I was told that the storm on the evening of the 6^th at Par Beach was quite impressive. The only impressive Friday night / Saturday morning event to affect Guildford in the last 13 months in this discussion in an impressive capacity was a week later when a 3~4 hour ‘surprise’ southward slow moving area of thunderstorms brought 43 mm rain. Quite typically, this occurred the night before I arrived home – culminating in the worst missed-storm event I have ever had my misfortune to experience. There have been plenty of these over the years. To add to the bad luck, the work security camera system failed to record the event, the cameras failing 5 pm on the 13^th and working by 9 am, Saturday 14^th. I am so fearful about missing interesting weather when on holiday that since 1995 or so I have asked people to take notes in my absence! It seems the chances of interesting weather at my holiday venue are never reciprocated. I thought the security camera idea would work well as it has a view of the car park where the intensity of the rain and lightning could be watched against a time-base. I was convinced correctly that something would kick off while away. Even the security guard was upset on my behalf about the camera failure and bad luck as he thought I might have at last circumvented the bad-luck curse that shadows me with anything meteorologically interesting.

Needless to say, constant disappointment missing out on much wanted and craved for thunder events saps morale and there is plenty of time to fester about the frustration with little else to on which to focus and the boring atlantic S.W.ly dross has now returned again and probably take months to shift again. This boredom is especially when at work and unable to spend time on activities and hobbies including cycling which actually makes good use of the boring conditions provided that infernal wind isn’t blowing, and therefore can take mind off the boredom.

Sorry for the length of this post, but I really wanted to have my say this time.

Sorry to quote all that but I wanted to ask if you were about during the May storm (I think it was in May anyway) last year. Storms initiated around Gloucester and Bristol areas and very slowly crept down over Reading and right over us. The whole event was about 4 hours and really sparked me up about the whole storm chasing thing. In fact first storm I actively went out to chase!

This year it has been the chasing which has meant I got to see the storms but I think it's only a matter of time before we get one for ourselves. I will hopefully be out next week and if the potential doesn't favour our area might go to my new favourite watching spot(s) I found last night. But of course this all depends on positioning and track of storms.

If I'd have stayed here last night I knew I would have got little in the way of anything good to watch or capture on the camera, thus I was spurred on to chase.

Costs money (fuel) to do it I know but I feel I got what I paid for (and I only went to West London so not too far really).

Welcome to join me on the next chase tho I feel it might actually only be to Guildford!

Edited July 17, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Severe Blizzard]

Sorry to quote all that but I wanted to ask if you were about during the May storm (I think it was in May anyway) last year. Storms initiated around Gloucester and Bristol areas and very slowly crept down over Reading and right over us. The whole event was about 4 hours and really sparked me up about the whole storm chasing thing. In fact first storm I actively went out to chase!

This year it has been the chasing which has meant I got to see the storms but I think it's only a matter of time before we get one for ourselves. I will hopefully be out next week and if the potential doesn't favour our area might go to my new favourite watching spot(s) I found last night. But of course this all depends on positioning and track of storms.

If I'd have stayed here last night I knew I would have got little in the way of anything good to watch or capture on the camera, thus I was spurred on to chase.

Costs money (fuel) to do it I know but I feel I got what I paid for (and I only went to West London so not too far really).

Welcome to join me on the next chase tho I feel it might actually only be to Guildford!

 

 

Thanks for the invite to join you on the next chase.

 

You referred to the 'May' storm last year. Your description of the movement of the system suggests this was the Friday 13th / Saturday 14th event which was the one I missed by 15 hours as it occurred when I was on holiday.  

 

Also, an encouraging remark that the next chase might only to be to Guildford!

 

I work varying hours, so the chance of being available for a chase depends on timing. My days off are Tuesdays and Fridays and I start work after midday on Monday, Thursday and Saturday, and work daytimes on Wednesday and Sunday. 

 

Please obtain my Hotmail or Facebook contact information from the the Net Weather profile page. Please Email me so we could exchange mobile phone numbers / details and have better chance of organising a chase when the need arises.

 

Cheers.

[Summer of 95]

Still not had any overhead action, very very boring month so far.

So humid recently but nothing kicking off, presumably because there's no sunshine.