Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Tim Bland]

No way will storms reach as Far East as Kent before midnight!

[sendandreturn]

There's activity over Rennes vectoring towards C S England, I guess it's "meant" to die over the channel, that could be here in 3 hours or so..

 

WeatherPro has no precip in my neck of the woods till 3am

Edited July 17, 2014 by sendandreturn

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-07-17 16:17:07

Valid: 17/07/2014 1600z to 18/07/2014 1200z

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis
 

Slow-moving long-wave upper trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted to the west of Europe over the next 24-36 hrs. A plume of warm and moist air advects north ahead of this upper trough, a shortwave trough moving north on the forward side of this trough will push a developing area of storms north across western UK and Ireland this evening, overnight and Friday morning

 

... SW ENGLAND, WALES, W MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, IRELAND/N IRELAND ...

 

Warm moist air advection from the south at lower levels and cooling of mid to upper layers with slow approach of upper trough to the west is generating a plume of steep lapse rates between 850 and 500mb across the Bay of Biscay and western France this afternoon/early evening, this unstable airmass, with MLCAPE in the order of 500-900 j/kg, is forecast to drift north across England and Wales tonight/Friday morning. A well-defined shortwave upper trough, evident on 500mb flow charts and on Water Vapour imagery and moving north on the forward side of the long-wave trough to the west, is creating large scale forcing for ascent of warm conveyor - with thunderstorms erupting across northern Bay of Biscay and NW France. These storms are forecast to expand spatially in extent as they track north across SW UK this evening. Upper flow and vertical shear should be sufficiently strong for storms to organise into an MSC, which will track north across the western side of the UK this evening overnight and through Friday morning, before weakening by lunchtime. Boundary layer across western UK is fairly stable/dry atm, so storms in this system will be elevated with passage, but will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, torrential rain leading to flash flooding, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Therefore have issued a slight risk of severe weather.

 

Edited July 17, 2014 by Nick F

[sendandreturn]

West is best, M27, A31, that's the chase plan this evening. Lulworth or Durdle Dor..

Edited July 17, 2014 by sendandreturn

[Mapantz]

West is best, M27, A31, that's the chase plan this evening. Lulworth or Durdle Dor..

Stop off at the Quay Inn in Wareham, I'll be there having a few beers, for a change.

[NUT]

Lot of lightning heading towards the southwest. It's on boys and girls

[DanDorsetUK]

Stop off at the Quay Inn in Wareham, I'll be there having a few beers, for a change.

Think Dorset will miss it tonight personally looks much more west to me

[Chris101]

It is not 100% accurate as some strikes do not show up

Agreed, tested it over the weekend with an AM radio and it doesn't show up anywhere near all the strikes.

[eddy88888]

just watched the net weather m.fish forcast  and early hours of saturday morning the radar has hampshire dorset getting battered bad by storms, i live in ferndown just outside bournemouth so hope it will be good

[Wet'n'Dry]

Agreed, tested it over the weekend with an AM radio and it doesn't show up anywhere near all the strikes.

 

 

In all fairness it can only be as accurate as the amount of stations sharing data in any particular location. But it's free so I'm happy with it, although I always drag the AM radio out when storms are forecast!

[Evening thunder]

Hope this aint the start of the eastward shifts from GFS.. was starting to get into a nicely chase-able range for me if not over my area (yes I know..)On the other hand tonight might be looking quite good, loads of lightning further west on the ATD but the ones to the south seem less active (don't let Blitzortung fool you, it detects much less % of lightning from the storms further west). The main cells in the channel are moving more towards Cornwall/west Devon, and the storms over to my south over NW France have mainly died at the moment.

 

Hopefully this chances with more activity into the SW as more CAPE is forecast for here than the storms south of Ireland.

 

Though plenty of time yet.. think I'd be unlucky to see nothing from tonight and the weekend. I have the car if needed..

[sparky1972]

well folks, looking like i can safely get the bbq out this weekend, everything now more west of here, looking forward to see any lightening pics on here of those fortunate enough to see the fun, stay safe.

[sendandreturn]

Think Dorset will miss it tonight personally looks much more west to me

 

I am in it for the photography , don't want to be under it, I'd rather be outside the show/structure

[Lynxus]

Storms to the south seem to be picking up a bit now.

One cell showing a lot more strikes per minute now.

 

Cant wait to see a good storm! Havent had much of a chance to get out and about this year.

[Mokidugway]

That's one angry blob of convection on sat 24 !!!.......and Europes largest storm !!...

Edited July 17, 2014 by Mokidugway

[Chris101]

In all fairness it can only be as accurate as the amount of stations sharing data in any particular location. But it's free so I'm happy with it, although I always drag the AM radio out when storms are forecast!

I still like it, its great hearing a crack on the radio and then a few seconds later seeing it appear on there, you can even work out after a bit which cracks on the radio are coming from what storm by how loud they are.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Storms to the south seem to be picking up a bit now.

One cell showing a lot more strikes per minute now.

 

Cant wait to see a good storm! Havent had much of a chance to get out and about this year.

Funnily enough, I was going to say that they look as though they are dying down a bit.

 

They have sat off the Brest peninsular for a long time this afternoon, drufting North but at a Glacial pace.  Latest NMM I saw seems to throw most of tonights stuff at Ireland and especially Cork

[scotteboi]

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_170714.png

 

Issued 2014-07-17 16:17:07

Valid: 17/07/2014 1600z to 18/07/2014 1200z

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

Synopsis

 

Slow-moving long-wave upper trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted to the west of Europe over the next 24-36 hrs. A plume of warm and moist air advects north ahead of this upper trough, a shortwave trough moving north on the forward side of this trough will push a developing area of storms north across western UK and Ireland this evening, overnight and Friday morning

 

... SW ENGLAND, WALES, W MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, IRELAND/N IRELAND ...

 

Warm moist air advection from the south at lower levels and cooling of mid to upper layers with slow approach of upper trough to the west is generating a plume of steep lapse rates between 850 and 500mb across the Bay of Biscay and western France this afternoon/early evening, this unstable airmass, with MLCAPE in the order of 500-900 j/kg, is forecast to drift north across England and Wales tonight/Friday morning. A well-defined shortwave upper trough, evident on 500mb flow charts and on Water Vapour imagery and moving north on the forward side of the long-wave trough to the west, is creating large scale forcing for ascent of warm conveyor - with thunderstorms erupting across northern Bay of Biscay and NW France. These storms are forecast to expand spatially in extent as they track north across SW UK this evening. Upper flow and vertical shear should be sufficiently strong for storms to organise into an MSC, which will track north across the western side of the UK this evening overnight and through Friday morning, before weakening by lunchtime. Boundary layer across western UK is fairly stable/dry atm, so storms in this system will be elevated with passage, but will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, torrential rain leading to flash flooding, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Therefore have issued a slight risk of severe weather.

The graphic says 10/13? Is this an old one!

[Greeny]

The graphic says 10/13? Is this an old one!

Yeah I noticed that. Also the link to it would be handy. Im rubbish at navigating through websites lol.

[Nick F]

The graphic says 10/13? Is this an old one!

 

Have erased the date now, the forecast map is correct. Thanks for spotting that out!

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Edited July 17, 2014 by Nick F

[paul m]

Have erased the date now, the forecast map is correct. Thanks for spotting that out!

Nick F is getting giddy with the prospect of all these storms lol

[Duane S.]

Think Dorset will miss it tonight personally looks much more west to me

Agree that is how it looks looking at the radar etc but the likelehood is that whilst the main thrust will spread northwards through areas west of Dorset, storms will start spreading out eastwards to our south, so I will be surprised if we don't at least see some action later tonight. And if not we always have Friday night into Saturday morning, chance #2.

[Nick F]

Nick F is getting giddy with the prospect of all these storms lol

 

Giddy that i'll miss all the action in London

[Mapantz]

Met office warning issued..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1405551600&regionName=sw

[Ben Sainsbury]

Sferics died down for a time but looks to be picking up according to the Real-Time Lightning detector. Anyone else Netweather Extra Radar not updating? Mines stuck on 17:25...

Met office warning issued..

Screenshot_2014-07-17-18-09-14.png

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1405551600&regionName=sw

Now they bring the warnings out.