Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Wivenswold]

Just watched latest weather report. And to my untrained eye things don't look that bad to be honest. Yes some torrential downpours but certainly nothing to warrant a red weather warning. Think perhaps a few are getting a little carried away here.

I think they are to be honest. 

 

There is the potential for some tasty storms but until they appear to your South there's no knowing where they will land. Going to be a lot of disappointed people on here me thinks. 

 

When confirming that the BBC or the Met Office are only giving certain types of whether could you confirm what part of the website you're referring to please? Most of us know that you should ignore anything symbols based on these sites. If it isn't on a map, don't believe it. 

[vladthemert]

2200 j/kg and li-7 never seen cape that high around here ,normally get excited about 500j/kg BRING IT ON

 

cant see my lapse rate is full white edge of uk.   Would think its comparable to yours as ours is 2100 j/kg.   Sheffield area looks like peterborough -10 lapse rate 3000 j/kg  

[sn0wman]

yeah it does seem it and hopefully this time around it will push right up into Scotland and give us some of the excitement as well for a change instead of it all dying over northern england

Really hope we get something   I think the main reason we're not forecasted as much SBCAPE/MUCAPE as many other places is because of the lower temperatures expected here. This seems to be due to the fact that easterly winds will bring much cooler (and more stable) air inland from the North Sea. Hopefully, some thunderstorms will still be able to survive the less conducive conditions and give us a nice show 

[toggerob]

I've sat in Lincs under 3000kj of CAPE, waited, and waited, and nothing. Sometimes you get lucky and sometime you miss out entirely.

[Buriedundersnow]

Really hope we get something   I think the main reason we're not forecasted as much SBCAPE/MUCAPE as many other places is because of the lower temperatures expected here. This seems to be due to the fact that easterly winds will bring much cooler (and more stable) air inland from the North Sea. Hopefully, some thunderstorms will still be able to survive the less conducive conditions and give us a nice show 

 

yeah man heres hoping and you know if we do get something its always better to start off in our position with very little expectation of receiving anything then if it comes its pretty good rather than sitting down south really expecting due to the forecasts and watching everything skirt round you now that would be a total bummer lol

[Mapantz]

Courtesy of severe-weather.eu

An upper ridge is persisting across south-central Europe, a short wave is affecting Scandinavia. A new short wave is pushing from the west of Iberia towards the UK. A weak upper low is still affecting S Balkans and areas towards SW Russia.

A SLGT+ risk has been issued for WNW France into S UK with threat for excessive rainfall and severe winds. Moderately unstable and sheared environment should support organized severe storms once they initiate along the N-wards advecting frontal boundary in W France and should tend to cluster into MCS towards UK overnight.

A SLGT risk has been issued for SW France into NE Iberia with threat for large hail and severe winds.

A SLGT risk has been issued for S Balkans with threat for excessive torrential rainfall with slow moving storms in strongly unstable and weakly sheared environment.

A SLGT risk has been issued for extreme SW Russia into W Georgia with threat for heavy rain, severe winds and large hail.

A TSTM+ area has been placed over Finland into NW Russia where another day of organized storms with excessive rainfall threat seem possible. Elsewhere, marginal thunderstorm areas have been placed where highest potential exist.

[laserguy]

I'd caution not to set expectations too high. Some places will get hit hard, others will get nowt despite having all the ingredients in place. There's always surprises in these setups and so disappointments. Just look out of the window is best I think, the only way to be sure you're getting a thunderstorm! Temper expectations then if you get nowt you aren't too dissapointed, if you get battered you're surprised and happy.

 

I'm not getting even a little excited - way,way too many letdowns foster that way of thinking. For me, the best storms have always been not forecast and appeared as if from nowhere.

[Hirudine]

What will be, will be!

[Pursuer of Storms]

I'm liking what I see on the radar. 596 strikes and all but three seem to be coming from one big storm. Have a feeling it might die off by the time it reaches the south coast though but could be wrong. I'm not an expert! 

[Daniel*]

Yes the projected cape is good, but first you need the catalyst. I am much more reserved this time back in May was a huge disappointment, seems more concrete that we will get something this time. Nonetheless I'm very excited of what this turbulent period of weather will bring

[stevofunnelcl]

this was posted in the tech thread - lightning - real time

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

 

Cornwall watch out.. now the question is, whether it survives the journey across the channel

 

 

[Emz by the Thames]

Random strike west of London..or false ??

 

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en

[vladthemert]

just seen lightening wizard sat up now convective rainfall chart 

 

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur60.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

[Wivenswold]

12Z GFS rolling out and it has Saturday morning's Mothership further to the East again.

[TonyH]

First storms of this spell now over the tip of Cornwall.

[Wivenswold]

All eyes on the 5 o'clock Euro4 model.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Wivenswold

[Mapantz]

I'm sticking with the original westward shift even though GFS runs will move around, simple because of the warning to the east for Sunday. If there was 100% confidence of no westward shift, that warning wouldn't be there as it would all be out in the north Sea on Sunday.

[Biggin]

12Z GFS rolling out and it has Saturday morning's Mothership further to the East again.

 Get in !!  Well sweaty here now.

[Wivenswold]

I'm sticking with the original westward shift even though GFS runs will move around, simple because of the warning to the east for Sunday. If there was 100% confidence of no westward shift, that warning wouldn't be there as it would all be out in the north Sea on Sunday.

 

You may have a point, however, the warnings are updated as fresh computer data becomes available. This is a highly evolving situation, everything and possibly even nothing to play for yet. 

[Harry]

 Get in !!  Well sweaty here now.

 

Lovely, lol!

 

Upper level haze to reflect the jump in humidity spreading in from the south too.

[Guest]

Just watched latest weather report. And to my untrained eye things don't look that bad to be honest. Yes some torrential downpours but certainly nothing to warrant a red weather warning. Think perhaps a few are getting a little carried away here.

I think a red weather warning would only be issued when there is already something extremely severe happening, such as flash flooding or damaging hail from a supercell. I wouldn't rule it out, as it is a possibility. We've had supercells already this year, and it only takes a particularly slow moving example to cause major flooding problems, and more besides...

[Harry]

12Z GFS rolling out and it has Saturday morning's Mothership further to the East again.

 

And delayed to me...an MCS that late is simply going to assist in thwarting opportunities on Saturday (potentially)

[Sidsnake]

Of all days I'm off sick (torn knee ligament at work last night) it had to be the best day for potential here in 9 years.Just been up the shop and it's unbearable but the wind is strength ing as the day goes on.That stuff in France is on the move. I think we'll get it just after rush hour if it hits!

Know just how you feel.  Torn knee ligaments are not funny I KNOW!!.  Hope you feel better soon.  Helping out at a local fete on Saturday.  Just a toss up between frying or getting drenched!

[paul m]

Does anyone use these lightning maps?http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

It is not 100% accurate as some strikes do not show up

[Convective]