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Jane Louise

Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

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Seems to be a competition for strike rate between Northants and North East France/Belgium

 

As usual them over the channel are winning

Edited by OddSpot

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Nothing in west London tonight so far, saw one distant flash but the MCS fell apart as it crossed the channel, hopefully not a precursor for later tonight

BBC forecast just now showed heavy rain moving due north to the west of London but the precip forecasts for this event have been completely useless so far so I wouldn't pay too much attention to itit, radar the only way to go

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am I right in thinking these storms are really just ignoring the models

 

Yep, models are notoriously bad at handling storms that develop in Spanish Plumes!

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am I right in thinking these storms are really just ignoring the models

The models are computer generated by data input.The storms are produced by natural processes. If there is an issue it's the models failure to predict not the storms ignorance of them.

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:) was only in jest 

 

its just amusing that the models seemed to be predicting very little rain in the S-East

 

yet look at the radar - excluding the storms, one mass of precipitation

 

:)

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Shoot in RAW if you can (to fix exposure later) and try F8 ISO100 and experiment with the exposure (10-20 secs depending of ambient light and any foreground lights etc) you also need to account for how close the storm is. further away needs more light etc. Hope this helps. 

 

PS focus on manual and try and find a light or similar in the distance to focus on, just back from infinity. 

It's just too dark here, nothing to focus on which makes practice definitely imperfect!

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According to GFS the most cape at midnight is in an area around Notts, so the storms that are moving north should have plenty of energy to keep going 

 

Also developments just North of Portsmouth 

Edited by ChezWeather

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The storm passing nr Le Mans is certainly moving N/NNW!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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So while there are showers popping up nothing thundery, hopefully this will change soon

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It's just too dark here, nothing to focus on which makes practice definitely imperfect!

phone torch, manually rotate focus to infinity symbol

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might pop out for a spot of lightning spotting as elevated convection is breaking out to the west of Salisbury heading due north towards me....will be interesting to see if this convection becomes electrified shortly

Yes lots of sharp showers have formed in the last hour over Wiltshire, Dorset and Hampshire and I expect these to extend and intensify towards midnight.

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Plenty of lightning in this MK/Northampton cell that's tracked north, looks to be moving on up into leics now

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not much activity other than rain here in Essex for a while now

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might pop out for a spot of lightning spotting as elevated convection is breaking out to the west of Salisbury heading due north towards me....will be interesting to see if this convection becomes electrified shortly

westbury white horse would be ideal :)

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I think there's a bigger enough gap between the first MCS and 2nd MCS over western France for there not to be a limiting factor on the 2nd. There'll be a lull behind the first, though the outflow ahead of the first will help cells develop further north, as we've seen over the SE Midlands recently.

 

2nd MCS likely to track north further west as steering flow backs more SE'erly, so central S England and Mids perhaps more in the firing line, but also western parts of the southeast/Home Counties.

Well the 1st one has got me super excited, I am literally wide awake. Let's hope we get MCS 2 trundling through London as the first was very close to us, your just south of me by 4-5 miles so hopefully it'll come this way.

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First sferic east of Bournemouth hallejujah! Us SW/S England might have a chance!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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It's kicking off all over the shop now!

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kicking around the portsmouth area heading north....rapid development and sferics now being detected

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Buckster, on 18 Jul 2014 - 22:53, said:

:) was only in jest 

 

its just amusing that the models seemed to be predicting very little rain in the S-East

 

yet look at the radar - excluding the storms, one mass of precipitation

 

:)

Hosing down here and gusty too.

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According to GFS the most cape at midnight is in an area around Notts, so the storms that are moving north should have plenty of energy to keep going 

 

Also developments just North of Portsmouth 

Not sure where you are mate, but wonder if we will be able to see any distant lighting up of the skies by looking towards J29/Mansfield way from here in the next hour?

Edited by OddSpot

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