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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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From my untrained eye, I would say that it's looking very promising indeed for the South East and East Anglia and the rest of us will have to keep watching to see if and how we'll get ours.

 

Pretty good situation for all of us at this stage...but I would definetly be smiling if I was in the south east.

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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

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As previously said these storms over France have nothing to do with what may come tonight, I wont be surprised if this lot dies down over the channel...its the development of the shortwave moving north which will give us the storms later if things go to plan....

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Yeah we could be, as long as we get some daytime heating going! The murk certainly took it's time to shift today, but tomorrow is a very different day :) So much to happen before then though :)

 

I'm travelling south tonight to hopefully catch some night-time lightning on video :) Taking Supacell's road advice and positioning myself next to the M1/A14 junction so I have an easterly road to drive down.

 

Also, noticed you are one day ahead of me on the 'thunderstorm' count lol. I remember that extra one you got too! Bloody thing died out before it reached us, grrr!

 

Not a bad total if im honest, 9 thunder days so far! however i could only really class 1 of them as a proper thunderstorm and that was the supercell on June 9th

 

And tonight im going to sit around and twiddle my thumbs until about 11, then make a move depending on whats going of further south!

 

Good luck and good luck to everyone else wishing for storms! 

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Best of luck Matt. Hope mother nature delivers something spectacular!

Cheers, just for the record my travels are not storm related. Unfortunately it's my girlfriends birthday tomorrow so my time will be spent at a special exhibit at the natural history museum so no storm fun for me :p

I really feel tomorrow could deliver something June 2012(esque), hell it might be even warmer in the south east than that day was. More fuel to the fire and all that. 

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post-182-0-89039500-1405703956_thumb.pngJust noticed the rate of convection and strikes..

 

Checked Estofex for an update as clearly a mesoscale discussion needs to be announced. and shock horror.... There is:

 

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?map=yes&fcstfile=2014071820_201407181712_-_mesoscalediscussion.xml

 

Proper gonna explode now!

 

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion

Valid: Fri 18 Jul 2014 17:00 to Fri 18 Jul 2014 20:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Jul 2014 17:12
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

NW and central France, extreme SE England, extreme W Belgium...

On the forward flank of an area of elevated convection that moved northward over Western France, convective storms have intensified after 16 UTC and evidently become surface-based.

The environment in which these strorms develop is characterized by ample MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg), and strong (20 m/s in the west) to moderate (10 m/s in the east) deep-layer shear. The most intense storms will likely occur in across far NW France in vicinity of a prexisting convergence zone (near a line from just south of Rouen to Lille). Given the strong CAPE, very large hail will be possible. The storms may well develop into a bow-echo capable of producing gusts > 32 m/s. 

The western flank of the convective system may also affect W Belgium and SEern England around 20 UTC. 

In central France, deep convective activity will have more difficulty to form, because of some remaining convective inhibition. Any more isolated storm in that region will also have a threat of producing very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

Edited by Lynxus
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It is the area north of Caens that has suddenly exploded that I am keeping my eye on. That will more directly hit the SE and I suspect further storms will build to the west of that.

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Hi guys !

 

I'm living in Rouen and I found your forum and this discussion so I thought it could be a good idea to register and tell you what's going on because it's going to be huge here.

 

welcome to forum looking intense 

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If the storms over France turn north then the whole of the SE and EA would get smashed by that storm to the west of Paris. I wonder if we could see something similar to that intensity on UK soil tonight?

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ok, i think i get it. Everyone's looking at that clump of thunderstorms that's currently leaving France? Been fine and dry here, a bit windy tho'. Nevermind...can only live in hope!

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BBC just saying the pattern and dispersal of storms is unpredictable and they can't for sure say who will get a storm and who won't.

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Some very tasty storms appearing over France! The highlighted storm looks like it's going to be a Kent clipper. Lucky sods!

 

I think only the extreme East will get hit by that stuff.

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Cheers, just for the record my travels are not storm related. Unfortunately it's my girlfriends birthday tomorrow so my time will be spent at a special exhibit at the natural history museum so no storm fun for me :p

I really feel tomorrow could deliver something June 2012(esque), hell it might be even warmer in the south east than that day was. More fuel to the fire and all that. 

Lol ! I'd find it hard not to be very distracted if theres baseball sized hail falling just outside  :rofl:

 

Yep indeed tomorrow looks to be very potent indeed. Look at that though over N France, insanity!!!

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