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Jane Louise

Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

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This is all very exciting.

I really hope we get something tonight in somerset, and tomorrow night. However Saturday is bristol harbour fest, and it would be great if the action would hold off for a couple hours. There could be a few soaking wet bristolians otherwise.

I am on my sun lounger lying in wait...... :-)

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Check ians twitter looks good for us! 

 

Does look interesting I have not seen a really big thunderstorm in 15 years really since I lived in high Wycombe.

 

Fingers crossed I'm getting slightly excited now which is unusual for summer!  :wink:

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All depends on todays 12z runs I guess, Usually we see a shift eastwards and this will be key for either Fri into Saturday or Saturday into Sunday, I reckon we will do ok from this as the Plume destabilises from the west over the next 3 days!

Phew, you have restored the faith a bit there Paul.  Was beginning to have a bit of a wobble on the storm rollercoaster!

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Could I suggest a thread break-out now? I love reading the general chatter about the Plume but I think most of us would benefit from having a thread with technical assessments so that we can easily find the facts behind the excitement, with some analysis from our more experienced forecasters. 

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Hopefully this all comes directly into the South Midlands and not just the edge of the storms, as usual.

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Not completely sure why there is a sudden panic about the E/SE... They/we still look reasonably placed for both Friday night and Saturday...

The upcoming panic about the storms, or the possible projection of less, in the SE and EA thread is going to be unbearable! xD

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Is this the first glimpse of tonight's potential fireworks? Just about to clip Quimper....??

Also, nice to see two different apps in sync!

post-22284-0-23862400-1405598576_thumb.p

post-22284-0-89617500-1405598619_thumb.p

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Noticeable shift on the 06z NMM (take these with a pinch of salt)

post-15177-0-20839300-1405598682_thumb.ppost-15177-0-67653500-1405598669_thumb.ppost-15177-0-50988000-1405598689_thumb.ppost-15177-0-15989400-1405598700_thumb.p

This appears on Friday night too, not sure I saw it on the 00z (just checked)

post-15177-0-64643400-1405598652_thumb.p

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Aaaahhh, air conditioned train carriage...lush!!! Temps here (Feltham, W London) must surely be pushing 28C currently!!

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What I'm liking about this spanish plume set-up it isn't the usual quick transition to cooler/wetter westerlies, instead we remain very warm to hot in places with the likely hood of more storms in some places :)

 

I'm yet to get fully excited because in the last 15/20 years I have barely seen a good or severe storm, but hoping this might be my time!

 

Rather than some vicious surface based storms that will mostly develop throuh day time hours, I just want to see some fantastic night time lightning, the sort where you see flashes every second or two :p 

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The models pushing things further west is much better even for the SE etc than the models pushing it further East with each run before it ends up in the North Sea...

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The models pushing things further west is much better even for the SE etc than the models pushing it further East with each run before it ends up in the North Sea...

 

Agreed. Far too many events have not made it across the channel. Given the margins of error at this stage, I'm much happier to see it edging West.

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Unbelievable wrf 06 nmm!!cape values are crazy tomorrow and saturday and temperatures peaking at nearly 32 degrees for east midlands east anglia and london!!tomorrow night looks very lively on this run with an mcs feature running up the centre of england!!

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The models pushing things further west is much better even for the SE etc than the models pushing it further East with each run before it ends up in the North Sea...

Agreed...west is best if more people are to experience thunderstorms. Also signifies the plume hanging on.For all those in the E/SE, there should be absolutely no dispondency at this stage...the juicy unstable air hasn't even yet arrived (while it is humid just wait til later tonight/tomorrow) and furthermore we were never due anything tonight, so therefore we are proceeding to plan...chill out!!!

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Aaaahhh, air conditioned train carriage...lush!!! Temps here (Feltham, W London) must surely be pushing 28C currently!!

You have air conditioned train carriages. ;)We still have steam trains over here. lol.Starting to get interested on an IMBY point of view now. Going to start following model output and radar projections from now on.First batch of thundery activity possible during the early hours tonight, although nothing notable or severe expected yet.Friday night and more especially into Saturday morning could see something more severe and organised over Southern England moving North. Westward corrections rather than the usual eastward corrections at this late stage is rather encouraging too as all this will do is bring more of us in on the action, it will not mean the east misses out as the plume will still have to distabilise at some point here.Was going to go to Bristol Harbour festival on Saturday but I think I'll give that a miss now and head to somewhere high up like Minchenhampton to see the upcoming potential.Rarely does the UK, especially my area, get a better chance at severe storm activity than this.

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my hopes for this coming weekend are the usual suspects that always get storms totally miss out and watch the rest of us getting totally hammered by storms massive hail and the odd tornado even making its way up through Scotland then we will see how they feel :rofl:

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Agreed...west is best if more people are to experience thunderstorms. Also signifies the plume hanging on.For all those in the E/SE, there should be absolutely no dispondency at this stage...the juicy unstable air hasn't even yet arrived (while it is humid just wait til later tonight/tomorrow) and furthermore we were never due anything tonight, so therefore we are proceeding to plan...chill out!!!

It's great to see some common sense from a SE poster!

funny you've mentioned this, the site team have been talking about this very thing the past couple of days......Quite happy to open a technical discussion providing 1) people are happy to post more indepth technical discussion and 2) the thread is used for that very discussion and not posts of a non-technical nature such as 'storm banter' and 'will it thunder in xxxxx' :)

'Storm banter' is definitely one my favourite phrases of the week so far...

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It's great to see some common sense from a SE poster!'Storm banter' is definitely one my favourite phrases of the week so far...

 

Agreed...west is best if more people are to experience thunderstorms. Also signifies the plume hanging on.For all those in the E/SE, there should be absolutely no dispondency at this stage...the juicy unstable air hasn't even yet arrived (while it is humid just wait til later tonight/tomorrow) and furthermore we were never due anything tonight, so therefore we are proceeding to plan...chill out!!!

Yep still no worries here, we may just have to wait a little bit longer, Saturday into Sunday i would say, but that just gives me a little more time to get inland for Friday night into Saturday early hours, whatever happens i'll see something somewhere.

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Being in Norwich, I think it's going to be a damp squib. The models show some pretty heavy CIN all day Friday getting stronger all day and refusing to budge all through Saturday.

So despite projected CAPE of around 700j/kg and lapse rates of around 30℃ it looks like nothing will happen.

Why does mother nature want to kill my soul?

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Cant decide wether to go out on the town tonight or dissapoint my mates by sitting at home radar watching and seeing if anything makes it up here!Friday night and saturday really looking good now though!

Im pretty sure nothing will make up your area until at least mid morning tomorrow and even then its a low chance. Go out and spend time with your mates! Much more important imo!

Edited by Costa Del Fal

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Back in the South-East this week, really looking forward to the setup into tomorrow and Saturday. Some huge CAPE values and the potential for some explosive storms. Ewwwr, if these storms are as explosive as my stomach's been this week, then the thunder and lightning could well be epic!!!!

 

Having to fast today because the cramps were that bad last night.....and not because of Ramadan.... Must be all this invisible CAPE in the atmosphere!!!! 

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Bbc national forecast looking good for us later today, then Saturday.

Come on BBC Spotlight follow up with the local forecast!

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