Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Nick L]

It's all well and good saying you don't think the storms will materialise. But can we avoid the rather petty posts along the lines of "it's always crap here so we won't get anything" or "the forecasts are always wrong" etc. These don't add anything to the discussion. By all means post valid reasons and charts to back up your reasoning, but please avoid outright negativity for the sake of it.

 

Cheers.

[Golden Hound]

Right car hired, damage waiver sorted, just a case of wait and see where things are heading (probably straight for my house now lol).

 

Question- Is there a netweather app so i can get on the forum quickly?

I would return the rental car and get one of these instead!

[Cloud 10]

I dont think I've ever seen an LI of -14!!! That's insane even by US standards...and its only just across the Channel and heading this way!

 

I wouldnt be too concerned with models at this stage - the airmass is SO SO unstable the an overzealous fart could cause eruptions....quite literally

 

Yep,all eyes on satellite,radar and south facing webcams!

[laserguy]

It's all well and good saying you don't think the storms will materialise. But can we avoid the rather petty posts along the lines of "it's always crap here so we won't get anything" or "the forecasts are always wrong" etc. These don't add anything to the discussion. By all means post valid reasons and charts to back up your reasoning, but please avoid outright negativity for the sake of it.

 

Cheers.

 

Don't need charts and the long,long line of epic FAILS is reason enough to be despondent - why should this time be any different? You'd be negative about the whole thing too. I would love to be forced to eat a huge humble pie until I'm throwing up all over the shop,and if that proves to be the case I'll be back on here once power has been restored to apologise unreservedly.

[Bobby]

5000+ CAPE and LI's of -14 over parts of France!

 

 

Edited July 18, 2014 by Bobby

[sendandreturn]

My parents live in Deux Sevres, slap bang in the middle of that CAPE, wish I was there this evening

[Nick L]

Don't need charts and the long,long line of epic FAILS is reason enough to be despondent - why should this time be any different? You'd be negative about the whole thing too. I would love to be forced to eat a huge humble pie until I'm throwing up all over the shop,and if that proves to be the case I'll be back on here once power has been restored to apologise unreservedly.

 

Well as much as you insist it to be the case, meteorology doesn't work like that.

 

I'll re-iterate my point: Sensible and rational discussion on the storm situation only in here please.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Nick L

[ancientsolar]

5000+ CAPE and LI's of -14 over parts of France!

 

 

Lets hope we get some here !

[paul m]

Not this again... it is evident that the Met Office h.a.t.e the Isle of Man.....

 

You jinxed it yesterday saying you were going to get all the storms lol

[Harry]

It's all well and good saying you don't think the storms will materialise. But can we avoid the rather petty posts along the lines of "it's always crap here so we won't get anything" or "the forecasts are always wrong" etc. These don't add anything to the discussion. By all means post valid reasons and charts to back up your reasoning, but please avoid outright negativity for the sake of it.

 

Cheers.

 

Well said - the reality is in these scenarios you'll probably be unlucky not to at least see some distant lightning if you live in England (the Midlands, perhaps the eastern most extent of the SW, C/S/SE England, EA and up the Lincs/Cambs area.

 

These are the best conditions the UK experiences for widespread thundery activity - NOT the time for pessimism. 

 

Plus, charts aren,t very helpful in these scenarios as the whole atmosphere looks prime to go bang. If an MCS does form, these are historically difficult to pin down for any chart - MCS aside, like last night there seems potential for storms to fire independently of any such system.

 

Remember that much of what the SE quarter and the Midlands saw last night was relatively uncharted (most activity was primed for the SW quarter then up the Western side of the UK) and didnt fire until well after Midnight. It looks to be a similar story tonight with late but widespread and intense initiation...if nothing has formed by say 10pm please no doom and gloom posts

Edited July 18, 2014 by Harry

[Wilxy]

SE England is the place to be tonight!

[Generalelectrix]

Hi@all

Quote Willsy:

"anyone recon last night was an mcc? (mesoscale convective complex) "

 

no, definitely not, a MCC should have an area of cloud top 100000 sq kms at -32 deg C and 50000sq kms at -52 deg C and in addition maintain these properties for at least 6 hrs to be classified as such.

Last night just was an organised squally line of storms, didnt even make it to a bow echo judging from the radar images, mind you it was close to becoming one by a whisker, an intensity I personally hadnt 

reckoned with TBH.

Am pondering the charts right now Re tonight and tomorrow, surprise in store? Have to wait one further run....  

 

Cheers

 

Ralph

[Nick L]

Well said - the reality is in these scenarios you'll probably be unlucky not to at least see some distant lightning if you live in England (the Midlands, perhaps the eastern most extent of the SW, C/S/SE England, EA and up the Lincs/Cambs area.

 

These are the best conditions the UK experiences for widespread thundery activity - NOT the time for pessimism. 

 

Plus, charts aren,t very helpful in these scenarios as the whole atmosphere looks prime to go bang. If an MCS does form, these are historically difficult to pin down for any chart - MCS aside, like last night there seems potential for storms to fire independently of any such system.

 

Remember that much of what the SE quarter and the Midlands saw last night was relatively uncharted (most activity was primed for the SW quarter then up the Western side of the UK) and didnt fire until well after Midnight. It looks to be a similar story tonight with late but widespread and intense initiation...if nothing has formed by say 10pm please no doom and gloom posts

 

I slept through last night's fun and games, despite my windows being wide open. I knew I shouldn't have had that extra pint at the pub last night

[Gael_Force]

Based on what I've seen, he's pretty much spot on.

 

CAPE/LI, shear, heat, humidity, lapse rates, pretty much everything is perfect for severe thunderstorms, potential for supercells and/or MCS and/or bow echoes. 

 

There is potential for several hours of torrential rain, frequent lightning, large hail (Estofex thinking potential for hail upwards of 5cm, but maybe this is more reserved for France), strong wind gusts and yes the potential for some tornados (and NOT necessarily the 'mini' variety).

 

All in all its an exceptional period of weather in the coming 36-48 hours with many areas of England and Wales in particular at risk of this severe weather.

 

Tonight the highest risk of severe appears to be London and the Home Counties (with Kent, Sussex, Surrey, London, Hampshire, Brighton & Hove and Essex at the greatest risk based on Estofex' thinking) though the risk of intense thunderstorms generally anywhere from Kent to Devon and northwards. Tomorrow the focus shifts to home grown thunderstorms once the overnight action has moved off, with the potential for some intense, severe thunderstorms to break out anywhere really across England and Wales and perhaps S Scotland. Then there is some variability in the models as to what may happen tomorrow night, with some including the UKMO pointing towards yet more widespread thunderstorms breaking out from the South and spreading North tomorrow night and through Sunday morning. Sunday at the moment seems to be largely down to what happens today and tomorrow. If for whatever reason the introduction of fresher Atlantic air is delayed, the threat of more severe weather persists chiefly across C and E England. If the CF has cleared through by this point, then potential for some 'UK standard' heavy and thundery showers, most likely again across C, S, and E England.

 

That's the best I can summarise it at this stage - basically there's a lot of uncertainty (as always with convective weather), as last night proved with a far wider outbreak of very active thunderstorms than was anticipated.

 

Whatever happens, stay safe and do bear in mind these storms are not expected to be our usual stuff - frequent, rapidly developing and severe thunderstorms appear likely with the threat of potentially dangerous weather (certainly by our standards anyway)

 

Good luck one and all

 

Hirlam is only one model and may not be right but if it is, that is some accumulated total over the space of three hours.

 

 

[paul m]

So as things stand you cannot comment if you think you are not going to get storms. Not allowed to comment if Statistically your area always does pretty poor concerning storms...Only allowed to comment to put other people down when they voice their opinions...... ballarcks to that

Edited July 18, 2014 by paul m

[AWD]

SE England is the place to be tonight!

Anywhere in C/S England. SE England, The Midlands, The West Country, East Wales, East Anglia and Southern Northern England look the place to be tonight. Anything could happen anywhere in the above areas.

[Nick L]

You're probably in one of the best parts of the country though Nick, so you'll probably get something tomorrow, for sure. I've missed out on everything so far, so I hope I get something, but I'm not getting over-excited just in case it dosen't happen. That's what I did last time and was the cause of all my ranting and raving in the No Storms thread.

 

Yeah I'm reasonably optimistic for these parts. I can't recall ever being under such high CAPE values! Well, not in the UK at least. 

 

Seriously though, some areas are going to get some extreme rainfall totals in a very short space of time. Flash flooding could be a serious problem.

[Neilsouth]

Hirlam is only one model and may not be right but if it is, that is some accumulated total over the space of three hours.

 

 

 

 

 

Too far west

[Methuselah]

Anywhere in C/S England. SE England, The Midlands, The West Country, East Wales, East Anglia and Southern Northern England look the place to be tonight.Anything could happen anywhere in the above areas.

Anywhere but in the Triangle!

 

Edit: sod all last night!

Edited July 18, 2014 by pete tattum

[Neilsouth]

At least going by the storm direction on sat, C/E/SE looks good

[Wilxy]

Anywhere in C/S England. SE England, The Midlands, The West Country, East Wales, East Anglia and Southern Northern England look the place to be tonight.Anything could happen anywhere in the above areas.

 

Thanks do you know any good vantage points I could chase but would like a good vantage point off incoming storms.

[Biggin]

There's comment and there is constantly harping on about it.-----------------------------------Paul Blight on UKWeatherworld has just given his latest thoughts. Paul gives his views in an unbiased and measured approach.http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104235-synoptic-discussion-we-18th-20th-july-2014-spanish-plume/page__pid__907299#entry907299The main point is he has upped the risk.

Bad Link 

[Mapantz]

There's comment and there is constantly harping on about it. -----------------------------------Paul Blight on UKWeatherworld has just given his latest thoughts. Paul gives his views in an unbiased and measured approach.http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104235-synoptic-discussion-we-18th-20th-july-2014-spanish-plume/page__pid__907299#entry907299The main point is he has upped the risk.

Can't view that link W-H

[Dancerwithwings]

There's comment and there is constantly harping on about it.-----------------------------------Paul Blight on UKWeatherworld has just given his latest thoughts. Paul gives his views in an unbiased and measured approach.http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104235-synoptic-discussion-we-18th-20th-july-2014-spanish-plume/page__pid__907299#entry907299The main point is he has upped the risk.

YES! Absolutely some peeps have there fav tune "why does it always rain on me" but when the sun-shines..... its>>>>no comment!

 

403 - Forbidden: Access is denied?????

[Weather-history]

Bad Link

Can't view that link W-H

That's odd, the link works for me just tried it.