Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Karl83]

I am fearing another Bristol skimmer!

[Evening thunder]

In a way I'm a little confused about tonight offerings.. On the one hand the model runs e.g NMM 5km show not much CAPE getting past the IOW area:http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071800/nmm-28-23-0.png?18-06http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014071800/nmm-28-30-0.png?18-06

 

Estofex forecast backs this up with 50% lightning risk mainly over the SE.

 

Yet the BBC graphics showed big thunderstorm clusters as far west as Cornwall/Wales.. and some other models have what looks like thundery outbreaks as far west as Devon/Cornwall. 

I'm thinking maybe there will be heavy downpours with some thunderstorms towards the western side, with the most intense storms and lightning activity further east?

with other forcing/lifting mechanisms helping form the clusters further west (if this does actually happen)

 

Also just noticed an orange weather warning from the Met Office which also covers my area! Though this could include heavy/torrential rain and high totals even if lightning is less prolific than further east.

 

So not sure what to do.. would be prepared to drive east but the risk of something here complicates things. Think it may be worth it to have a better chance of seeing the really intense storms.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Evening thunder

[AderynCoch]

The usual snooze-fest non-event this area unfortunately. Nowhere near enough heat and far too much cloud to allow anything to kick off. 

Thunderstorm at 8am followed by near-total sunshine since then.

 

I must be living in some parallel universe, unless the southern Wirral area is being cursed.

[Cloudwatcher]

Thunderstorm at 8am followed by near-total sunshine since then.

 

I must be living in some parallel universe, unless the southern Wirral area is being cursed.

 

Trust me, I saw the storms you experienced on the radar in a narrow line stretching up NW from Liverpool. We did not get even a sniff of them here! Just fairly overcast here atm

[Darren Bown]

I reckon estofex' forecast for tomorrow might be pretty interesting, possibly a level 2 of a lot of England?

Trust me, I saw the storms you experienced on the radar in a narrow line stretching up NW from Liverpool. We did not get even a sniff of them here! Just fairly overcast here atm

It's been sunny and hot here until about 30 mins ago before the cloud has filled in. It's going to feel so muggy!

[Cloudwatcher]

I reckon estofex' forecast for tomorrow might be pretty interesting, possibly a level 2 of a lot of England?It's been sunny and hot here until about 30 mins ago before the cloud has filled in. It's going to feel so muggy!

 

It is starting to feel more humid here but don't think there's a lot of surface heating going to happen here unless this cloud cover breaks soon. 

[Neilsouth]

Lots and lots of altocumulus ( good sign ) and humidity has shot up

[terrier]

19c cloudy and drizzle here in west yorks very confused we're under a amber warning. Can't see any thunder and torrential rain under these conditions. Hope not anyway as having roof repaired at moment. So can stay down south for me lol.

[Speedway Slider]

These storms will form irrespective of cloud cover as they will be upper based. In any case very warm sunny breaks for most this afternoon.

Upper based?

What is the difference in there formation v surface based, and how different are the resulting storms?

[Cloudwatcher]

Starting to see some gaps in the cloud cover now. Fingers crossed

[BB1979]

Surely, if anything, last night has proven its all about simply keeping your eyes and ears peeled. I dont recall one suggestion of any action for London area last night (be it on the telly or on here) yet we had easily the best night for many a year. Time to stop worrying whether you are in the zone or not and simply let the excitement build into the midnight hour ....

[Ben Sainsbury]

I am fearing another Bristol skimmer!

Unfortunately I have the same fears.

[andymusic]

there's gonna be some very very nasty weather about - multi-cellular storms - level 2 warnings for massive sized hail and lightning - and even mention of something called a bow echo - which is a nasty weather phenomenon which normally only occurs in America (I Believe) - this could be very violent weather about to hit the UK -  much more of that to come over the next 36 - 48 hours - dangerous weather!

Edited July 18, 2014 by andymusic

[Chris.R]

Thunderstorm at 8am followed by near-total sunshine since then. I must be living in some parallel universe, unless the southern Wirral area is being cursed.

Same here. Distant thunder earlier, then sunny and breezy ever since, and getting very warm.

[Jax]

Lightning strike shocks woman filming storm in Tunbridge Wells

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-28364856

[Speedway Slider]

there's gonna be some very very nasty weather about - multi-cellular storms - level 2 warnings for massive sized hail and lightning - and even mention of something called a bow echo - which is a nasty weather phenomenon which normally only occurs in America (I Believe) - this could be very violent weather about to hit the UK -  much more of that to come over the next 36 - 48 hours - dangerous weather!

 

Link not working...

 

[Zephyr]

I am fearing another Bristol skimmer!

 

Do we expect anything different now a days? 

 

Lapse rates remaining high at 18z

 

[VillagePlank]

My attempt at explaining the different warning areas from MetO and Estofex,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80662-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-regional-weather-chat/page-75#entry3006457

[Chris101]

Surely, if anything, last night has proven its all about simply keeping your eyes and ears peeled. I dont recall one suggestion of any action for London area last night (be it on the telly or on here) yet we had easily the best night for many a year. Time to stop worrying whether you are in the zone or not and simply let the excitement build into the midnight hour ....

Very true, i think a very experienced convective forecaster on here said last night he wouldn't be seeing any storms in his area last night and then this morning was surprised to be woken by a TS, and yet people with no forecasting experience whatsoever pretend to know whats going to happen in the next 24-48 hours by just looking out the window.

[Karl83]

For us in Bristol and surrounding areas

 

Edited July 18, 2014 by Karl83

[Cloud 10]

Lightning strike shocks woman filming storm in Tunbridge Wells

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-28364856

 

 

Suzannah Ford-Crush.........what a great name.

 

Works at a scrap yard maybe?

[Summer Sun]

Issued at: 1123 on Fri 18 Jul 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Sat 19 Jul 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 19 Jul 2014

 

Several areas of heavy, thundery showers will develop over England and Wales from Friday night before moving northwards during Saturday. Not everywhere within the warning area will see thunderstorms, and indeed some spells of warm sunshine are expected at times, but where thunderstorms do form, some torrential downpours are likely with frequent lightning, large hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as from small, fast-responding watercourses. The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption from any of these elements.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

The very warm and humid airmass across the UK will become increasingly unstable on Friday night and through Saturday. This will lead to the development of areas of intense thunderstorms, these moving northwards across the UK and affecting different areas at various times through the day. In this situation, large amounts of energy are available in the atmosphere and this, coupled with high moisture content, can lead to torrential downpours along with frequent lightning activity, large hail and locally strong gusts.

 

As is usually the case with thunderstorms, broad areas can be identified as at risk some time in advance but detail will remain very uncertain until very close to the event. Some areas will miss the worst of the storms whilst nearby spots experience severe downpours with some localised flooding, so the public are advised stay in touch with the latest forecasts and warnings through Saturday.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1405724400&regionName=ne

[Wilxy]

sun starting to break through the clouds now

[Minimace]

Got loads of videos/pics of lightning last night, but got this one interesting pic! What do you guys reckon?

Edited July 18, 2014 by Minimace

[Speedway Slider]

sun starting to break through the clouds now

 

Same here, last 30-45 minutes the sun has burst through the knackered, scruffy leftover clouds from last night's activity and shot up from 19.8c to 25.9c

 

Feeling very muggy as the breeze has also vanished....