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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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The air really cant hold off the storms, I didn't expect it to keep blowing up after early this morning. But for around here they keep blowing up and constant rumbling this morning.

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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

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Awesome pics! Makes me wish (if only for a split second) I'd stayed in Pompey instead of moving to Devon!

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At the risk of saying I told you so ;)  Overcast with drizzle here as expected - the usual left over southern rubbish has effectively ruined what could have been a lovely summer's day.

 

well you are so right, the chances are gone from here for today, no heat, feeling chilly in the breeze, no sign of any sunshine, no humidity, just low cloud and dank skys

Lovely and sunny here, not blue sky sunny, the hazy hot and sweaty kind.

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Am wondering too if we are having the main event early or the worst is yet to come...

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Neither the BBC or MO app went for storms last night, good ol' weatherpro did! On that basis, I'll take this..

post-15177-0-53265300-1405673896_thumb.p

Bbl. I'm about to take a jigsaw to my foot. :angry:

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I decided to check out the latest BBC forecast video to see what you're in store for, and I haven't seen or heard a forecast quite like it before - the words intense and massive being used to describe Saturday's storms.  Enjoy yourselves!

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Northern England were never going to get storms last night though, and don't have much chance this week either, (a slim chance on Saturday, away from the coast).. This is an almost entirely southern-based event, as that's where the heat and humidity is/will be. North of a line from say Wrexham to the opposite shore, it's simple won't be warm/humid enough to ensure some good thunderstorm developing (perhaps apart from some orographic forcing?). As I see it, a wedge of relatively cool and fresh air invades west of the Pennines which nullifies the chance of storms there.

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Big miss by the NMM models this morning, both have some weather in England, but displaced about 70 miles West of where it's really happening. I know 70 miles isn't much, but this close in, it'

s the difference between Reading and the North Sea.....

 

Kent Clipper anyone?

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Looked out window, think that's it for now then think i see a flash..

 

7 booms and counting, the cloud doesn't look amazing but it's churning out the thunder..almost like it developed over me. Very hot and sticky inside now. :yahoo:

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Surprisingly no storms or thunder or anything remotely of interest here over night.  It's cool, grey and damp here this morning.  Last night on Look North the temperatures were forecast to be 29C round these parts.  This morning the local forecast has 22C as a maximum.  Hopefully something will come from this weekend but this part of West Yorkshire seems to miss all the decent weather :-(

 

Storms always develop to the east of the M1, storms from the south always break up over Sheffield and fizzle to nothing.  Weather from the west is stopped by the pennines.  Overall, a dull weather area!

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Loving the estofex forecast...

"An alternative scenario is that not much convection will be surface-based, and the bulk of the activity will be elevated, reducing the overall severe threat. Because of this uncertainty, an level 3 was not issued at this time." Could we see a level 3 warning?

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I truly think we have entered a different phase of weather (reverted back to more old school style). I was saying it in winter that if we had a mild winter and the sea temps kept up (i.e. +NAO +AO), it would correlate to more plumes making it. This happening now looks like proof upon my hypothesis! Although this may well be only one of numerous factors!

Agree with you, definitely a more 80s-90s feel to the weather this year. Though I witnessed some crazy snowfalls in winter and massive summer storms in those decades here, so there must be so many factors at work. Just glad to be getting proper summer weather after a decade of absolute crap!
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Are we still due to get storms over night tonight and into tomorrow or is this event happening earlier than first thought?

It kicks off in southern counties around 9pm. I suggest using a radar from then onwards. :)
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