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Jane Louise

Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

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I would say so, yes! These cells have fired up along the convergence zone, so it would make sense for them to follow the movement of it and head towards the coast during the afternoon. There's enough instability and energy remaining in the atmosphere to sustain them.

 

 

Let's hope they become electrical I am storm starved haha thanks Nick.  Only issue it they appear to be building rapidly and then dying off (sods law) !!

Edited by P-M

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I would say so, yes! These cells have fired up along the convergence zone, so it would make sense for them to follow the movement of it and head towards the coast during the afternoon. There's enough instability and energy remaining in the atmosphere to sustain them.

 

Further to this, the lack of shear in these areas will limit the lifespan of individual cells, but I would expect further cells to develop as long as the convergence zone (which is the trigger in this situation) remains.

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Bit late today with forecast, Heavy thundery downpours already beginning to spring to life across NE England early this afternoon, with more likely to pop up across other eastern areas for the rest of Sunday, a storm forecast has been issued by Netweather:

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

post-1052-0-64753100-1405858013_thumb.pn

 

Issued 2014-07-20 11:57:00

Valid: 20/07/2014 1200z to 21/07/2014 1200z
 
THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
Synopsis

Upper trough that has sat to the west of the UK and France over recent days has edged east with trough axis now lying N to S across the UK and France. Slack area of surface low pressure lies across eastern areas and into the Low Countries/Germany, with a waving front just off east coast of England/Scotland this afternoon - heavy showers/t-storms are likely to develop in more unstable airmass here, while surface ridge of high pressure extends north across western British Isles on Sunday, bringing more stable conditions here.

 

... E ENGLAND, MIDLANDS and SE SCOTLAND ...

 

Warm and moist air (dew points of 17-21C) left over from recent Spanish Plume still hangs on across eastern England, despite winds turning west/northwesterly across all areas, bringing in less humidity now further west. GFS builds 600-1000 j/kg CAPE this afternoon across the above areas, in reponse to surface heating of the humid airmass and cooling of upper levels. Surface convergence between W/NW flow and sea breezes from the North Sea, as temperatures rise inland and pressure falls, will aid in the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms from Kent/Sussex north across central and eastern England and into SE Scotland. Already storms are firing across NE England.

 

Despite weak vertical shear today, storms will persist near convergence zones ... precipitable water (PWAT) values remain high in the east and as cells will be slow-moving, there is a risk of large rainfall totals in a short space of time from any storms, bringing risk of local flooding and surface water on roads. Storms may also produce hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds, storms may continue across the E/NE regions overnight too, before fading Monday morning.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis
Edited by Nick F

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First strikes of the day near ipswich

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Unexpected Storms broke out East Yorkshire last night! This CG was literally miles away so was lucky to get it like this!

post-1104-0-30645400-1405858620_thumb.jp

Edited by Craigers

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Not sure about that there no clouds there?? And nothing on blitzortung

is on my link

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The thunderstorm in South France is getting bigger!!

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Quite a lot of lightning here in Ipswich.

 

 

Yes there's a couple of potent little cells right near there which is what is producing it.  Good stuff though!

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The East Anglian cell is getting more active now.

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Almost constant thunder east of Ipswich!

 

wonder if this getting energy from storm crossing the english channel

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Towers shooting up all around me now, feels very muggy two. Hopefully today will be our turn for a good storm :)

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As that weather approached Kent it help convection to get going here. Torrential rain in Ashford

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Towers shooting up all around me now, feels very muggy two. Hopefully today will be our turn for a good storm :)

 

Same here HC - feels far more humid and muggy than previous days although yesterday was unbearable as it was just grey murk and warm..

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Third Thunderstorm reported in South-East. Other two are actually in East Anglia. The Ipswich cell has got potential, but the problem it is going towards the chilly North Sea.

Edited by pip22

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Third Thunderstorm reported in South-East. Other two are actually in East Anglia.

 

Yep and EA

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First strike in Kent, south of Canterbury

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Looks very active now that one in EA.

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Storms over EA looking very active on blitzortung :D all a bit too East of here sadly (both the EA and Kent storms)

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Same here HC - feels far more humid and muggy than previous days although yesterday was unbearable as it was just grey murk and warm..

 

 

Yeh, it's just nice to watch the clouds and see what devlopes rather than the 2 days of nothingness we've just had. 

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