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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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like this on meteociel the video shows well how much storms are going to break out on Saturday and even has some pretty intense stuff making it through Scotland on saturday 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/videos_wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=14

 

I'm thinking maybe an amber warning from the Met Office may be seen for the spine of the UK from the south coast to just north of the Central Belt for Saturday because that looks really quite severe.

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This explosion here is what we like!  

New strikes appearing in the channel peeps ahead of MCS 2 - active very quickly too

A couple more pictures  This part was rotating crazily A VERY close lightning strike (amazing picture, I know lol) And this one... I am so annoyed that it went wrong!  

Posted Images

thundering in newton abbot as my dad reports

Yep, it's rumbling pretty well down here now. Very distant though. I guess the wind has picked up and is carrying the sound a fair distance.
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just found this on twitter

 

Storm relative helicity- potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells &look at the chart for UK on Saturday!

 

post-18134-0-48150700-1405625770_thumb.j

 

 

does this mean there could be a serious threat of tornadic activity?

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I don't see an MCS in the s.w. , just thundery rain , maybe in a couple of hours it may grow.... but more likely on friday afternoon in the midlands.

If you were under that lot off the SW you wouldn't call it thundery rain! It's a narrow line of very intense thunderstorms with torrential rain and a LOT of electrical activity :D

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nice little cluster of storms developing on the eastern edge of a developing shortwave trough. Currently over the Cherbourg peninsular. Steering winds pudh these cells towards Dorset/Wilts over the next few hours. It wouldn't surprise me to see forcing from this advancing trough to fire further more discrete elevated cells to the north and east as the trough interacts with WAA advancing from the south east.....

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just found this on twitter

 

Storm relative helicity- potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells &look at the chart for UK on Saturday!

 

Posted ImageBsw8eAeIYAMU1_y.jpg

 

 

does this mean there could be a serious threat of tornadic activity?

 

Wow :D I hope I've been sensible with my chasing efforts in order to be viewing any supercells that may develop.

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If you were under that lot off the SW you wouldn't call it thundery rain! It's a narrow line of very intense thunderstorms with torrential rain and a LOT of electrical activity :D

Its still over the sea though, it has yet to reach land....

Anyway to something regarding tonight, storms are breaking out over an area where the lapse rates are high:

Posted Image

This area moves NW throughout the night, where we still have the high rates over the SW by 12am:

 

Posted Image

Shear then increases during the early morning, which should help things get organised and potentially intensify the storms:Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

It does take its time moving, but these storms should follow suite, its a very dynamic and fluid setup so it needs following closely!

And I wonder if the SW/Wales will see any supercell developments (tornadoes etc) :

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Even the GFS is going for some very heavy rain on Saturday. Some areas may even see over a month's worth of rain in just a couple of hours. Flash flooding looks very, very likely, especially in North West England and Southern Scotland

 

Indeed, BBC's forecast this evening hilighted the potential for 50-75mm of rain within a couple of hours. More than enough to cause problems

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Even the GFS is going for some very heavy rain on Saturday. Some areas may even see over a month's worth of rain in just a couple of hours. Flash flooding looks very, very likely, especially in North West England and Southern Scotlan

 

 

 

looks along the same lines as the NMM as well.

 

GETTING REALLY EXCITED NOW.

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Looking a little further ahead, are we expecting anything like this current forecast activity next Monday/Tuesday when another system looks like moving in?

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Looking a little further ahead, are we expecting anything like this current forecast activity next Monday/Tuesday when another system looks like moving in?

It stays pretty warm going into the middle of next week, but it's pointless trying to forecast anything for then as there's so much happening from a meteorological point of view before then!

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Unusual to see a level 2 warning albeit only skirting the far SW.

 

Been watching the cirrus slowly give way to more menacing looks clouds down here over the past few hours, feeling increasingly sticky, something we are not used to so near the coast! We are on the cusp of a great couple of events over the next 36 - 48 hrs I reckon, no point looking any further than that right now.

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Its not hard to see why those Supercell Composites are very favourable, Deep Layer Shear On The Order Of 30-40kts, T/T/d of 84/71 and a Neg Tilt Trough are the perfect ingredients for Supercells to form, we ideally look for anything over 30kts as a rule of thumb when chasing these systems in Tornado Alley

 

The big old question is wether Surface Heating and indeed a Surface Based Storm can utilise that 2,000jkg of energy, we only have a very small land mass to get these things done.

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