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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

like this on meteociel the video shows well how much storms are going to break out on Saturday and even has some pretty intense stuff making it through Scotland on saturday 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/videos_wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=14

 

I'm thinking maybe an amber warning from the Met Office may be seen for the spine of the UK from the south coast to just north of the Central Belt for Saturday because that looks really quite severe.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Fingers crossed Estofex will release their Friday forecast soon :)

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Abbot, South Devon
  • Location: Newton Abbot, South Devon

thundering in newton abbot as my dad reports

Yep, it's rumbling pretty well down here now. Very distant though. I guess the wind has picked up and is carrying the sound a fair distance.
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

latest atd detections from NW v4 radar (10 minute delay)

 

lively to say the least!

 

post-4149-0-37618200-1405625132_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

OH YES PLEASE :yahoo:  :shok:

 

Posted ImagemaxDBZ_eu.png

 

COME ON SCOTLAND LETS HAVE IT THIS TIME I'M SICK OF MISSING OUT!!!!!

LETS HAVE IT!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

just found this on twitter

 

Storm relative helicity- potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells &look at the chart for UK on Saturday!

 

post-18134-0-48150700-1405625770_thumb.j

 

 

does this mean there could be a serious threat of tornadic activity?

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I don't see an MCS in the s.w. , just thundery rain , maybe in a couple of hours it may grow.... but more likely on friday afternoon in the midlands.

If you were under that lot off the SW you wouldn't call it thundery rain! It's a narrow line of very intense thunderstorms with torrential rain and a LOT of electrical activity :D

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

nice little cluster of storms developing on the eastern edge of a developing shortwave trough. Currently over the Cherbourg peninsular. Steering winds pudh these cells towards Dorset/Wilts over the next few hours. It wouldn't surprise me to see forcing from this advancing trough to fire further more discrete elevated cells to the north and east as the trough interacts with WAA advancing from the south east.....

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just found this on twitter

 

Storm relative helicity- potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in supercells &look at the chart for UK on Saturday!

 

Posted ImageBsw8eAeIYAMU1_y.jpg

 

 

does this mean there could be a serious threat of tornadic activity?

 

Wow :D I hope I've been sensible with my chasing efforts in order to be viewing any supercells that may develop.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

If you were under that lot off the SW you wouldn't call it thundery rain! It's a narrow line of very intense thunderstorms with torrential rain and a LOT of electrical activity :D

Its still over the sea though, it has yet to reach land....

Anyway to something regarding tonight, storms are breaking out over an area where the lapse rates are high:

Posted Image

This area moves NW throughout the night, where we still have the high rates over the SW by 12am:

 

Posted Image

Shear then increases during the early morning, which should help things get organised and potentially intensify the storms:Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

It does take its time moving, but these storms should follow suite, its a very dynamic and fluid setup so it needs following closely!

And I wonder if the SW/Wales will see any supercell developments (tornadoes etc) :

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Even the GFS is going for some very heavy rain on Saturday. Some areas may even see over a month's worth of rain in just a couple of hours. Flash flooding looks very, very likely, especially in North West England and Southern Scotland

 

Indeed, BBC's forecast this evening hilighted the potential for 50-75mm of rain within a couple of hours. More than enough to cause problems

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Even the GFS is going for some very heavy rain on Saturday. Some areas may even see over a month's worth of rain in just a couple of hours. Flash flooding looks very, very likely, especially in North West England and Southern Scotlan

 

 

 

looks along the same lines as the NMM as well.

 

GETTING REALLY EXCITED NOW.

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Looking a little further ahead, are we expecting anything like this current forecast activity next Monday/Tuesday when another system looks like moving in?

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Looking a little further ahead, are we expecting anything like this current forecast activity next Monday/Tuesday when another system looks like moving in?

It stays pretty warm going into the middle of next week, but it's pointless trying to forecast anything for then as there's so much happening from a meteorological point of view before then!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Unusual to see a level 2 warning albeit only skirting the far SW.

 

Been watching the cirrus slowly give way to more menacing looks clouds down here over the past few hours, feeling increasingly sticky, something we are not used to so near the coast! We are on the cusp of a great couple of events over the next 36 - 48 hrs I reckon, no point looking any further than that right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Cheers Ralph :D

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Sferic by Reading lol, things over the SW now getting a bit more lively!   :p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Its not hard to see why those Supercell Composites are very favourable, Deep Layer Shear On The Order Of 30-40kts, T/T/d of 84/71 and a Neg Tilt Trough are the perfect ingredients for Supercells to form, we ideally look for anything over 30kts as a rule of thumb when chasing these systems in Tornado Alley

 

The big old question is wether Surface Heating and indeed a Surface Based Storm can utilise that 2,000jkg of energy, we only have a very small land mass to get these things done.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m

Whats the biggest tornado ever recorded in the UK?

Edited by Love Snow
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