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Jane Louise

Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

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Looking at charts and all the Variables gives a pretty good idea of areas that are going to miss out. Think people are actually talking about Fri/sat for chances.

We will brew you some tomorrow afternoon for you. I wouldn't be surprised if the old front kicked something off tomorrow afternoon.

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Sferics now near the Channel Islands for anyone looking for potential out east, as for my location its looking perfect for this setup! :p

Edited by Panayiotis

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Up here is looking like a dead duck for storms now...Yes it can still change before anyone decides to point that out to me

AGAIN! :( :( :cray: Have you ever considered moving to you know where? :wink:

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Still feeling confident for tomorrow and Saturday, the potential is still there! 

 

Would be nice to see some night time action and im willing to drive a good distance to do so if it does all go pear shaped for this region... 

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Up here is looking like a dead duck for storms now...Yes it can still change before anyone decides to point that out to me

Saturday is looking excellent for storms. Precipitation models for an event like this are largely useless.

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Last time we got woken up by storms here in the Black Country, the storms were entering the country a little more to the east than they are now so I can see the reasoning behind tonight's forecast.

 

However, I still think we have a pretty good chance of catching one at some point in the early hours.

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Still feeling confident for tomorrow and Saturday, the potential is still there! 

 

Would be nice to see some night time action and im willing to drive a good distance to do so if it does all go pear shaped for this region... 

Yes me too. I am planning on travelling if needbe (basically if it's looking great overnight Friday in the south I'm chasing!)

 

Paul Hudson on latest Look North highlighted Saturday as the main day for "severe thunderstorms", and highlighted central and western Yorkshire as hotspots, as it stands.

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This explosion here is what we like!

 

post-182-0-65877100-1405621219_thumb.png

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Right on cue, developing activity over the Cherbourg Peninsula, one to watch for some a bit further East?

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Not looking that great here in all honesty. West tommorrow, east Saturday. Nothing that central, certainly not a focus. Can't moan though as we've had a few storms already this summer, just looks like we could be missing out on a big occasion this time round.

Ahh yes because it always pans out as shown! Manny models giving the Midlands a pretty direct hit on Saturday actually!

 

Good chance of something here tomorrow morning btw.

Edited by Costa Del Fal

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Not bad webcam here at Berry Head, Brixham near Torquay  It pans all the way round a step a a time and shows the black skies towards Dartmouth and where the storms are probably approaching from (to the right of the aerial mast where the two big rocks are in the sea) http://www.berryhead.co.uk/ or this one at Salcombe that pans around. Needs cleaning though with the looks of it http://www.hopecove.com/hotel/webcam.php

yep berryhead webcam has a quality stream and will be pretty lively in the next couple of hours Edited by Arnie Pie

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Right on cue, developing activity over the Cherbourg Peninsula, one to watch for some a bit further East?

Yep could be good for our region now if it keeps up

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Ahh yes because it always pans out as shown! Manny models giving the Midlands a pretty direct hit on Saturday actually!

 

Good chance of something here tomorrow morning btw.

The Met Office blanket warning says it all for Saturday's prospects. Just about anywhere could cop a severe one. I just hope those that miss out don't blame the forecasts! It's always a risk rather than a certainty, it just so happens the risk is a little greater than usual this weekend! :D

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just looked at the strike chart towards the SW  :shok:

Edited by Dami

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Based on the radar at the moment I'm going through the gap where anything refuses to develop into a storm and sustain it'self. Just looked at thhe EURO4 model and it supports that conclusion too..

 

May have to drive then, but that aint as good as seeing a storm at your home or in your local area. 

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Based on the radar at the moment I'm going through the gap where anything refuses to develop into a storm and sustain it'self. Just looked at thhe EURO4 model and it supports that conclusion too..

 

May have to drive then, but that aint as good as seeing a storm at your home or in your local area. 

That's just what I was thinking, being stuck in Exeter right now isn't good when nothing wants to develop.

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Raining here in SE Cornwall, lightning out to sea and regular rumbles in the distance.

Posted Image

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 yep berryhead webcam has a quality stream and will be pretty lively in the next couple of hours

just to note, the camera set up is actually making skies look a lot darker than they actually are....I've been on the phone to my sister for the past 30 mins (she lives over looking St mary's bay (a mile from Berry Head) and yes it is now overcast, but this is mainly from the cirrus overspill from the developing MCS, and she reports some more thicker mid-level cloud coming ashore giving now light rain. The detections over land in Devon are anomalous 

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Cant believe how much lightning there is, considering its all over water as well. 

this is only the start, there is going to be some bad ass storms fire up over mainland France throughout tomorrow and Saturday!! 

This is just something money simply cannot buy! I love it and live for it!

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Seems like a large chunk will make landfall in the Rep of Ireland as well. Now that's a long journey over the sea for any storm to last. Just goes to show the energy that's out there at the moment.

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I think tonight's plume of storms is just a taster, tomorrow overnight will be the bigger one which should affect a lot of Wales and England... but before that, eyes on tonight!

Edited by Panayiotis

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I will be going to bed shortly and setting my alarm for around 2am. If these storms are affecting the Midlands I may then drive out to see them, if they are confined to the Welsh Border westwards then I shall save my petrol.

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just to note, the camera set up is actually making skies look a lot darker than they actually are....I've been on the phone to my sister for the past 30 mins (she lives over looking St mary's bay (a mile from Berry Head) and yes it is now overcast, but this is mainly from the cirrus overspill from the developing MCS, and she reports some more thicker mid-level cloud coming ashore giving now light rain. The detections over land in Devon are anomalous

That confused me lol - there's a St Mary's Bay in Kent too :D

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