Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Supercell 89]

Well got nothing last night apart from one single bolt and its hardly rained at all but thats meant the temperatures remained around 18c -19c all night so a very uncomfortable night sleeping. 

 

However this could a be a silver lining for today as if we get any breaks the temperature should hopefully sky rocket as the ground is relatively dry, its already nudging 21c and its still overcast. Just hope if it does fire up I'm on my lunch break at work. 

[Cloudwatcher]

had a few rumbles and mid-distant flashes here last night.Seemed fairly high level stuff.  I think everything decent swept east of us towards Manchester.  Stuck with the usual Cheshire dross of cloudy dull skys and light rain now. Can't imagine anything starting up later tbh because there's not enough heat around. Good luck to everyone else :-)

[pip22]

The skies are trying to brighten up here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Everything has died off on hitting the channel. Overcast here and lot much sign of it lifting.

All the action is foecast to the far-east (again...) and had nothing last night or this morning despite all the ingredients.

Looks like my plume event ended at 4am on Friday

:-(

[TropicThunder]

Bit of a let down here too, once again everything going either east or west of here. Enjoyed watching the lightning in Dorset from a distance last night but would be nice to get something closer and still haven't heard any proper thunder. Pleased for everyone who got a direct hit though.

 

Very cloudy skies now,  but got my eye on that clump over the Cherbourg Peninsular hoping it comes this way...

[The PIT]

NMM showing better cape values than it did from 12oz run for us this afternoon. Only problem no heat to set anything off so little chance of anything bar rain showers mist and humidity.

[Darren Bown]

Had about 3 minutes a sun here and the temp jumped to 23c, after 3 hours of steady rain so the energy and heat is about today. All the moisture from this mornings rain/storms will surely be a factor in providing the moisture that is already in the atmosphere?

[Darren Bown]

Everything has died off on hitting the channel. Overcast here and lot much sign of it lifting.All the action is foecast to the far-east (again...) and had nothing last night or this morning despite all the ingredients.Looks like my plume event ended at 4am on Friday:-(

estofex were pretty spot on with yesterday's forecasts, and they include the west and north in their forecast today. Even see the attached pic from metoffice (I know not the most accurate) but shows it won't be the East that gets the good stuff today!

Edited July 19, 2014 by Darren Bown

[Andy Pepler]

is it possible to be shell shocked by overdosing on thunderstorms ...

[Duane S.]

More incoming for here by the looks of it.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Disagree,thurs had more potent storms/lightening count alot higher and they were bigging last night as more severe.

I agree. Clearly met office were very wrong for some areas - BBC Surrey were practically promising storms and we didn't even get distant.

[Guest]

NMM showing better cape values than it did from 12oz run for us this afternoon. Only problem no heat to set anything off so little chance of anything bar rain showers mist and humidity.

 

Yeah I watched the MetO video forecast on their website which actually takes where the current precip is into account. It showed showers/storms initiating across central southern England later in the afternoon in the sunny breaks, and we get whatever form they are in the early/late evening (assuming they're still storms).

 

Had a plenty of flashes and rumbles at 2:30am last night, but stopped very abrubtly too.

 

Unsure what to expect today really. Any storms that do develop in clear slots further south could be very severe indeed. 

[Karl83]

Disappointing night here but it looks like many got one hell of a show which is great. Hopefully this afternoon, evening will deliver the goods here.

 

I managed just a couple of shots of the Milton Keynes/Northampton system around midnight looking West from Bedford and that was it! Not the greatest but i like the cloud structures.

 

 

 

 

Thrilled that the my pic was used on the Site News though.   http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6025;sess=

Ran out of like quotas - Nice pics!

[Guest]

I agree. Clearly met office were very wrong for some areas - BBC Surrey were practically promising storms and we didn't even get distant.

 

The Met Office did a blanket warning because of the uncertainties, and last night turned predictably into a very messy picture. I think it's all they could do really given the situation. I think those that did miss out are unlucky rather than the victims of poor forecasting

[Darren Bown]

The Metoffice never promised any storms or even nearly. On all their forecasts and text warnings they said some areas would miss the worst or even miss them completely.

[Karl83]

Sun or no sun - The channel is sending something headed towards maybe Newport/Cardiff.

[stainesbloke]

No storms for my area last night but Thursday night's fantastic storms were such a good show that I'm not disappointed! Can understand people's frustrations though, no really severe weather hit the UK unless I'm missing something?

Edited July 19, 2014 by stainesbloke

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

estofex were pretty spot on with yesterday's forecasts, and they include the west and north in their forecast today. Even see the attached pic from metoffice (I know not the most accurate) but shows it won't be the East that gets the good stuff today!

But there are storm systems that once again appear to be favouring the east as their final destination, plus they still have te humidity (somehow)Maybe also because they are that little bit closer to Benelux?

[sparky1972]

well, we missed the storms last night, will miss them today to by the looks of things, 22c and very very muggy but i really dont think we will get any sunshine and heat to aid any storms

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

The Metoffice never promised any storms or even nearly. On all their forecasts and text warnings they said some areas would miss the worst or even miss them completely.

I must admit BBC Surrey is a bit excitable but they said several times (and I quote:) "expect frequent lightning"

[Wilxy]

Sun or no sun - The channel is sending something headed towards maybe Newport/Cardiff.

 

Or it looks like another line of showers forming again like earlier

[Harps]

I slept through everything last night but looking at the lightning archives there wasn't all that much lightning, surprising considering how much it was being built up compared to the previous night which was just as severe and widespread. Everything that crossed the channel started to decay and homegrown storms weren't really explosive

[SP1986]

I think today you'll need above 1400j/kg of CAPE to get anything out of the situation, with all this cloud around. Below that and it's a close but no cigar scenario. I'd plump with south and east of (and including) Birmingham to be the main beneficiary of todays storms.. west of this doesn't look favourable in my opinion, aside from perhaps, some parts of Devon. Does anyone disagree with this summarisation? Feel free to add your own.

[Chris K]

I KNEW IT. The one night I am away and Bristol gets hit. Then the rainy mass hits me coming home on the m5...absolutely atrocious conditions but no thundery activity.

*shakes fist at sky*

Edited July 19, 2014 by Chris K

[Boro Snow]

looking at sat 24 im sure i am seeing the first signs the cloud is starting to thin out and break up, looking outside while it is still raining its becoming brighter