Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[ancientsolar]

some storms firing up in the channel to, ~ Although most are head in an NEward direction.. there are some heading NW if you look at the far West of France. I can only guess these will continue to develop and hit the British Southern coast in about 60-80 minutes.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's weird up here in Yorkshire. It's trying to clear all the time but not managing it, and the hills are shrouded in thick mist. I'm wondering whether we have had enough heating to support anything in the way of t-storms. It's only 19c, but I guess the instability will do its job.

 

Just at the edge of the 'murk' here and temps have gone up from the 19c they've been stuck at all day to 22c over the space of 3/4 of an hour! The murk is limping North so you will get into the air that has been warmed all day.......you won't like it come 11pm when humidity really kicks in!!!!

[Evening thunder]

Storms really firing in France now but at the moment they are tracking further east than BBC/MetO graphics suggest later or most models show, more in line with what I'd have naturally thought and the higher CAPE area. Of course more could well form later and track further west, I suppose that's the plan.

 

There are a few showery bits coming north off Brittany though not that active atm. GFS now shows the heaviest precip near the SE coast anyway.

 

Didn't get as much sleep as I'd liked last night and unable to today so may not be able to drive far enough to see good action tonight (assuming there's decent action around Hampshire/Wiltshire/IOW areas like many models suggest).

Then tomorrow the GFS has shifted the high CAPE further away from here.. so harder to reach especially with first Saturday of the school holidays traffic.

[Nouska]

Ok, I'm in Iffendic near Monfort near Rennes, currently only had a few light showers so far but feeling nearly unbearable outside. Thunderstorms seem to be going E of here currently but I'm not giving up hope yet.

 

The highest warning area is just east of you but I'm sure you will see some action. Are you camping? Some violent weather forecast to pass close by.

Quick google translation.

 

 

These hail will be accompanied by particularly intense rains in the presence of precipitable water content markedly elevated (> 60 mm) may submit intensities temporarily torrential sheets of water with> 40 mm in a short time in the nuclei precipitating the most active. Finally, besides the risk of diffuse tornado over the entire target area, violent winds will trigger the passage of these storms. The environment will indeed be conducive to the outbreak of downbursts above 120 km / h. The risk of violent gusts will be especially pronounced on a north Gironde / Charente-Maritime / Vienna / Indre-et-Loire, where local peaks in excess of 150 km / h in isolation could make some extreme storms.To the rear of the MCS, in the second half of night, new storm cells will hatch in dispersed, with the possibility of heavy local rainfall order; intensities are nevertheless less marked than passage of the MCS early night.

 

 

http://www.keraunos.org/previsions/prevision-orage-tornade-france-convective-outlook.html

[Lynxus]

Storms really firing in France now but at the moment they are tracking further east than BBC/MetO graphics suggest later or most models show, more in line with what I'd have naturally thought and the higher CAPE area. Of course more could well form later and track further west, I suppose that's the plan.

 

There are a few showery bits coming north off Brittany though not that active atm. GFS now shows the heaviest precip near the SE coast anyway.

 

Didn't get as much sleep as I'd liked last night and unable to today so may not be able to drive far enough to see good action tonight (assuming there's decent action around Hampshire/Wiltshire/IOW areas like many models suggest).

Then tomorrow the GFS has shifted the high CAPE further away from here.. so harder to reach especially with first Saturday of the school holidays traffic.

 

Dont be fooled by the direction of the storms.

The whole system itself is pushing north. So while "these" ones may not do anything for us.. Its what builds behind.

[Neilsouth]

Is it just me or does it suddenly feel very, very sticky?

 

Suddenly?? It's been like it all day

 

So far the rain prediction from the met is looking slightly inaccurate going by the storm tracks across france

[on the coast]

Anyone got any decent links for live web cams for the storm that's coming please?

[Guest]

It's weird up here in Yorkshire. It's trying to clear all the time but not managing it, and the hills are shrouded in thick mist. I'm wondering whether we have had enough heating to support anything in the way of t-storms. It's only 19c, but I guess the instability will do its job.

Imports later tonight and home growns tomorrow if the conditions are good. Time to enjoy an increasingly sultry evening! The last hour it has got a lot sunnier here and very humid.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Rouen is on course to be Rouened !! Cant believe we may be having a proper taste of the proper storms :D 

[Robbie Garrett]

This first batch is probably unexpected, should hit London & SE at Sunset?  Looks like the MCS will form just after this lot? It's all moving north at 25KT's with the low pressure. Bay of Biscay low if I am correct according to the charts.

 

[SnowJoke]

Storm in the middle of the cluster over France is a right mover. Probably a very well developed Supercell. Lightning frequency from it is off the scale.

[ChezWeather]

Imports later tonight and home growns tomorrow if the conditions are good. Time to enjoy an increasingly sultry evening! The last hour it has got a lot sunnier here and very humid.

 

Looks to me like we are in a perfect place tomorrow afternoon for home grown storms! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Rouen is on course to be Rouened !! Cant believe we may be having a proper taste of the proper storms :D 

No sleep for me tonight. Heading down to Benfleet later, hopefully I won't screw myself over as I think Saffron Walden will get hammered again.

[vladthemert]

Video from last night. TURN UP THE VOLUME.

 

 

wow you could sell that to film industry as a sound prop

[William Grimsley]

The highest warning area is just east of you but I'm sure you will see some action. Are you camping? Some violent weather forecast to pass close by.

Quick google translation.

 

 

http://www.keraunos.org/previsions/prevision-orage-tornade-france-convective-outlook.html

No not camping but will hear/see these storms well, might get some distant stuff at least hopefully.

[chapmanslade]

Video from last night. TURN UP THE VOLUME.  

We sat and watched that from Chapmanslade - at least one strike in Westbury resulted in a bright green plasma ball for a few seconds - maybe an electricity transformer near the milk factory

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

No sleep for me tonight. Heading down to Benfleet later, hopefully I won't screw myself over as I think Saffron Walden will get hammered again.

Best of luck Matt. Hope mother nature delivers something spectacular!

[Lauren]

Certainly seems to have heated right up suddenly. House is now much hotter than it was earlier.

 

What time are the guesstimates for these storms to come through?

[JMTD]

Looks like it'll arrive much earlier than expected and we're going to get absolutely smashed in the worst way possible from it. In for a long night.

[Guest]

Looks to me like we are in a perfect place tomorrow afternoon for home grown storms! 

Yeah we could be, as long as we get some daytime heating going! The murk certainly took it's time to shift today, but tomorrow is a very different day So much to happen before then though

 

I'm travelling south tonight to hopefully catch some night-time lightning on video Taking Supacell's road advice and positioning myself next to the M1/A14 junction so I have an easterly road to drive down.

 

Also, noticed you are one day ahead of me on the 'thunderstorm' count lol. I remember that extra one you got too! Bloody thing died out before it reached us, grrr!

Edited July 18, 2014 by SjV

[sconetone]

Holy cow....

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=nl

 

 

It's just constant lightning down there :O

[Nouska]

Dont be fooled by the direction of the storms.

The whole system itself is pushing north. So while "these" ones may not do anything for us.. Its what builds behind.

 

Correct. The forecast 'main event' for severe weather is only now coming on coast at the Bassin d'Arcachon.

[Robbie Garrett]

Storm in the middle of the cluster over France is a right mover. Probably a very well developed Supercell. Lightning frequency from it is off the scale.

 

"Over 600 lightning strikes every 15 minutes across Northern France, 2,500 every hour. If that survives the dreaded 'storm killer' English Channel then we are in for a loud night"

 

 

 

Certainly seems to have heated right up suddenly. House is now much hotter than it was earlier.

 

What time are the guesstimates for these storms to come through?

 

I'd say 2-3 hours from now.

[sendandreturn]

You'd start to see action..Central Southern England my guess is 1am onwards, East Sussex Kent etc, 12am

[Tempest]

I'm confused. Whats everyone talking about? I just had a look at the lightning map and it only shows lightning strikes for Edinburgh and Ireland. There doesn't seem to be anything else. I seen the map for this morning but all that lovely lightning seems to have disappeared into thin air.