Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Darren Bown]

What could you expect from -2 - -4 in west country with that map?

If I'm correct, the CAPE and LI are a sign of the potential energy in the atmosphere, but there needs to be a forcing element to make use of it. -3and 1400+ are the highest values I've seen for my neck of the woods for a long long time.

[Guest]

If I'm correct, the CAPE and LI are a sign of the potential energy in the atmosphere, but there needs to be a forcing element to make use of it. -3and 1400+ are the highest values I've seen for my neck of the woods for a long long time.

Yeah, I mean look at the CAPE + LI charts for right now, for example.

[Supacell]

Estofex charts (GFS based) showing 6cm hail across parts of CS England tomorrow afternoon   with 5cm risk quite widespread too.

[Panayiotis]

Lightning detector now kicking off near Le Mans and around that general area in response to increasing lapse rates and converging winds, these storms should become more frequent throughout the afternoon:

For following these storms the 500hPa wind charts should be used:

You can see why the SE is favourable as the storms develop near Le Mans then move into the UK in a NE direction.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Robbie Garrett]

One thing that's struck me to previous plumes we've had over the years, there's very little crap in the sky above. The visibility is stunning today for a PLUME. Quite a bit of moisture can be seen in the atmosphere today but there's more chance of strong heating today and then more chance of re-radiating to aid storms tonight.

 

Hardly any CIN over majority of England. 

 

[Convective]

Very, very sultry here now. Clothes starting to stick just sat outside. Extremely heavy skies but no precipitation nearby. Apparently I'm due another storm around 7pm, but we shall see.

 

Lightning detector starting to go mental just west of Paris

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[dave48]

Video from last night. TURN UP THE VOLUME.

 

[William Grimsley]

Ok, I'm in Iffendic near Monfort near Rennes, currently only had a few light showers so far but feeling nearly unbearable outside. Thunderstorms seem to be going E of here currently but I'm not giving up hope yet.

[Paul]

If you fancy a moan about the current storm setup, the lack of storms in your location, the fact you don't like storms or anything else storm related please head over to our new moaning thread to have a vent!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80922-no-storms-hate-storms-post-your-storm-related-moans-and-groans-here/

 

From here on in, any moaning, complaining etc in this thread will be removed so please make sure that if you want to have a good old moan up about things to head over there

[Wivenswold]

Looking like a Kent clipper at the moment. Hopefully the axis will change as forecast. I'm off to watch it approach from a South-facing quay-side pub bench.

[Spikecollie]

Ok, I'm in Iffendic near Monfort near Rennes, currently only had a few light showers so far but feeling nearly unbearable outside. Thunderstorms seem to be going E of here currently but I'm not giving up hope yet.

Hang in there William, the Rennes METAR is progging you some nice t-storms this evening and right the way through the night - the best time for them. Enjoy what you get and have a great holiday. And by the way, welcome to French humidité - it's a whole new concept in warm!!!

[Mokidugway]

Estofex charts (GFS based) showing 6cm hail across parts of CS England tomorrow afternoon   with 5cm risk quite widespread too.

a few dented cars then

[Nick L]

Is it just me or does it suddenly feel very, very sticky?

[Guest]

Looking like a Kent clipper at the moment. Hopefully the axis will change as forecast. I'm off to watch it approach from a South-facing quay-side pub bench.

Ignore that batch, our interest is developing later when the plume + thundery low really start to get going

[chionomaniac]

Looking like a Kent clipper at the moment. Hopefully the axis will change as forecast. I'm off to watch it approach from a South-facing quay-side pub bench.

Not really - there are a lot of cells forming between Brest and Caens currently. Early days - but on course so far.

[Nick F]

Really kicking off to west of Paris Basin and south of Caen.

 

12z Trappes (Paris) ascent showed 1300 j/kg CAPE and some good vertical shear looking at wind barbs on the right of skew-t diagram, with winds backed SE'erly towards the SE to the S to SW winds aloft which strengthen with height. Temps of 34-35C in Paris basin and just west, so expect CAPE even higher (perhaps 2000 j/kg+) now:

 

Edited July 18, 2014 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

The shots are being fired on the french mainland...

http://www.s-cool.co.uk/gcse/physics/properties-of-waves

^ SE bound

[Spikecollie]

One thing that's struck me to previous plumes we've had over the years, there's very little crap in the sky above. The visibility is stunning today for a PLUME. Quite a bit of moisture can be seen in the atmosphere today but there's more chance of strong heating today and then more chance of re-radiating to aid storms tonight.

 

Hardly any CIN over majority of England. 

 

It's weird up here in Yorkshire. It's trying to clear all the time but not managing it, and the hills are shrouded in thick mist. I'm wondering whether we have had enough heating to support anything in the way of t-storms. It's only 19c, but I guess the instability will do its job.

[lassie23]

a few dented cars thenimage.jpg

Nuts! Just had mine waxed! The car that is!

[10 Days Away]

Ignore that batch, our interest is developing later when the plume + thundery low really start to get going

That batch interests me as I don't think I'll be getting much later.

 

Just started producing hail as it has passed Le Mans heading NE

[Lynxus]

Epic wow!

 

The speed at the increase of intensity. Its exploded... Gone from a few strikes to 700+ in 20  mins.

 

 

eDIT: 1000+ 

Edited July 18, 2014 by Lynxus

[Greeny]

Theres a little feature on radio 1 about the thunderstorms last night and about them being wotse tonight.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My word, its really kicking off now towards Northern France!! Sferics every second almost! 

 

Charts showing these heading towards Kent and then up through E Anglia. This is where I think will be worst hit tonight, although more intense storms could break out along the destabilising plume. A very interesting night to come thats for sure

[William Grimsley]

Hang in there William, the Rennes METAR is progging you some nice t-storms this evening and right the way through the night - the best time for them. Enjoy what you get and have a great holiday. And by the way, welcome to French humidité - it's a whole new concept in warm!!!

Yeah I should see something, I only have N facing windows which isn't great but as you say it is really different over here, much more stickier than England.

[NUT]

Part 1 of this weekend came through here not that long ago gave about 2 minutes of rain barely enough to wet the ground