Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[10 Days Away]

Just hit 29.5'c here in the centre of MK, with the humidity it's unbearable. The slight breeze that we do have feels like someone aiming a hair dryer on full blast right in to your face. On another note lightning now starting to increase over France from a cluster of developing storms near Le Mans. Sferics popping up near Brest now also, it's starting to happen...

 

Still seem to be on a SW to NE track. I thought they were meant to be more South to North or is that to happen later? From an IMBY point of view I hope it carries on !!!

[terrier]

Just got in from work it's currently 19c here in West Yorkshire with drizzle not expecting any activity up here next few days. Don't think the heat is gonna build now to be honest. Very disappointing day up here. Very surprised by the amber alert for us to be honest.

[shaky]

12z gfs has massive amounts of cape for the whole of england!!talk about an upgrade!!and showing temps of 27 or 28 degreees with a dewpoint of 19!!unreal!!!!!

[Nouska]

First storms cleared through here with a splutter of rain and a fine display of mammatus on the back edge. CAP did not hold as well as predicted, will it affect the main evening event which is due to kick off just north of me?

[Mesoscale]

Are we talking supercells tonight? The shelf cloud (could have been a roll cloud it was too dark to see whether or not it was attached to the storm) was insane, I have never seen one in the all the time I have been interested in weather, the lightning was intense with one of the bits of lightning beading out. Didn't get a whole lot of rain though probably the best night time lightning storm for a good 10 to 15 years around here, I have only seen one storm that surpass last nights and that was in the Bahamas before Hurricane Irene.

[dave48]

Best of luck to everyone after a storm. I hope tonight delivers for the many rather than the few. After what we had here last night, I am counting myself lucky but would of course love a second helping. A few video grabs from last nights action. A truly fantastic storm and the best in many years. For close lightning, possibly the best in memory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Karl83]

Still seem to be on a SW to NE track. I thought they were meant to be more South to North or is that to happen later? From an IMBY point of view I hope it carries on !!!

I think it will start to veer westwards as the night progresses.

[Biggin]

Still seem to be on a SW to NE track. I thought they were meant to be more South to North or is that to happen later? From an IMBY point of view I hope it carries on !!!

Sposed to happen later, just hope it gets across the channel before it takes a left turn away from SE

[SnowJoke]

Still seem to be on a SW to NE track. I thought they were meant to be more South to North or is that to happen later? From an IMBY point of view I hope it carries on !!!

 Factor in the forecast is for a thundery low to develop later on over NW France, with the anti cyclonic movement they'll begin to push more northwards.

[Snowshine]

Current models show great CAPE/LI values for most of England tommorow.

 

 

There is also a chance of storms next week, still early days though.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Cumulonimbus123

[Guest]

Hi SjV. If I am honest I really have no idea at the moment. If I follow Estofex then I would be tempted to take a long drive down to the SE but there is the fact that other models seem to have the action to the west of this. In all fairness it looks to be a widespread event and unlike last night I am hopeful that storms will not run out of steam as soon as they move over the Midlands, as such driving such a long distance would probably seem pointless.

 

Although it is a fair distance away a good starting point may be somewhere around the M1/A14 junction (not far from Lutterworth) as the A14 and M6 provide a good west to east route all the way from Birmingham to East Anglia. When we have northward moving storms I find an E-W road to be useful for interception in the same way something like the M1 or A1 is useful for eastward moving storms. As it will be nighttime the hope is that traffic would not be an issue either.

 

Worth noting that care should be taken chasing tonight, I need to take my own advice here, as several mm per hour downpours with frequent lightning, large hail and 60mph winds can make driving very difficult. 

Thanks for that, I appreciate you taking the time to post all that

 

It is difficult to predict I agree - the risk area is just so damn huge! I might get myself a reasonable distance further south like you suggest, purely for position and so I am closer to the south when the storms start to trundle up the country. I think they will get up here too, but not until after sunrise, and I want me some night-time action haha

[baxybaxy]

Funny how the French orange warning says avoid using telephones and electrical equipment... Sounds like my old mum's advice

Edited July 18, 2014 by baxybaxy

[IanR]

heard a few booms of thunder when I arrived at work in St Helens this morning from the Liverpool cell,  I saw a couple of CG's , better then nothing I suppose

[boogercj]

Funny how the French orange warning says avoid using telephones and electrical equipment... Sounds like my old mum's advice

 

A mate of mine just north of Portsmouth had a router and network card taken out last night...She's a wise woman!

[Harry]

I'm going to guess that whoever wrote the text forecast for the MetO earlier got a ticking off...I didnt grab the exact wording but intense thunderstorms (etc) was used frequently

 

Now its back to the usual, more understated terminology!

 

London & South East England Headline:

Thundery rain spreading north tonight, further thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

This Evening and Tonight:

After a dry start, thundery showers will develop during the evening, these continuing on and off overnight with some localised torrential downpours and hail possible. Feeling warm and muggy overnight. Minimum Temperature 18 Â°C.

Saturday:

Saturday will see some sunny spells and the risk of further thundery showers and with some more general heavy and thundery rain likely in the afternoon. Hot and feeling humid. Maximum Temperature 30 Â°C.

[cloudsabove]

Meteo France has an amber warning out for potentially dangerous storms:

 

http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/

 

Link to

 

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

(in English)

 

You still can get an idea of where their warnings are even if you don't speak the language, and if you or others are travelling or staying, might be worth a look on these sites.

 

Also, with their forecast also of risk of violent storms:

 

http://www.keraunos.org/

 

If you need some translation I can assist! Hope this doesn't annoy folk, just posting to be helpful and might be of interest to see things build there and track what may come here.

[vladthemert]

Not this again... it is evident that the Met Office h.a.t.e the Isle of Man.....

 

 

not part british isles any more well thats only conclusion BEEB must be running  .  Can I ask when did you get independance

 

ps as this upgraded now to 3000 j/kg and -10 lapse rate.

 

When someone going build Noahs Ark is it too late russle up one quick

Edited July 18, 2014 by vladthemert

[BFS/BHD]

Not this again... it is evident that the Met Office h.a.t.e the Isle of Man.....

 

. And Northern Ireland at times... Although it seems we'll miss out this time.

[Buckster]

storms look more like they are initially heading towards S-East ?

[The PIT]

Just got in from work it's currently 19c here in West Yorkshire with drizzle not expecting any activity up here next few days. Don't think the heat is gonna build now to be honest. Very disappointing day up here. Very surprised by the amber alert for us to be honest.

The dreaded north east clag again. Annoying thing thing you look at the dew point 18c the temp may have peaked here at 22.6C would have easily hit 28C if the sun came out. This could have set off some local brew off.

[kar999]

For anyone hitting the roads storm chasing tonight /tomorrow remember many schools finished today so the traffic is likely to be very heavy.

[Nights King]

Current models show great CAPE/LI values for most of England tommorow.

 

 

There is also a chance of storms next week, still early days though.

 

What could you expect from -2 - -4 in west country with that map?

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Very ominous skies here, nothing really showing on the radar, maybe yet to evolve but will keep an eye on this. The clouds have a weird green glow about them around the base.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

A mate of mine just north of Portsmouth had a router and network card taken out last night...She's a wise woman!

Yea had our router taken out and busted too a few years back. Had to replace the sod. Getting excited about tonight! Hope it doesnt wake the baby though argh!

[Snowshine]

. And Northern Ireland at times... Although it seems we'll miss out this time.

Their Warnings are hardly accurate, as if the storms will take that exact path...