Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Polar Maritime]

To the few who are starting to get argumentative and off topic, Can we please stick to friendly discussion. As is set out clearly in the Forum rules and guidelines. 

 

Many Thanks. PM

[A.J]

That doesn't follow the current direction of the storms over france....

Hi Neil. Posting from mobile so scuse the spelling...anyhoos trough axis will become more negatively tilted (se-nw) so storm steering flow will follow suit

[jamesslater93]

As promised earlier, here's a video of the thunderstorm from last night:

 

Photos are included at the end of the video, but here are some of my favourites:

[Team Jo]

To the few who are starting to get argumentative and off topic, Can we please stick to friendly discussion. As is set out clearly in the Forum rules and guidelines. 

 

Many Thanks. PM

In addition, there is a thread dedicated to the No-Storms-Club. Membership is free...so if you're feeling full of non convective woe, then it might be a good place to vent...

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-0nwards/

[Harry]

Enough of the sarky comments... what about the one in the post I replied to . The point I was making is that statistically (feel free to check with the met office) this area does not do well for storms. people have already pointed out that the crud that is left over from the storms last night could scupper any chances for some. It has happened time and time again. Sorry if that pees people off.

 

I think tonight paul m the odds are stacked in most people's favour, including yours.

 

The destabilisation is expected to be very widespread and as Nick F's post attests above, moderate risk of turning severe (I personally have never seen Nick F issue such an extensive moderate risk)

 

If after tonight/tomorrow you havent had a decent storm, by all means let rip...but these conditions at present IMO are not subject to the same local variations one often sees in the UK (i.e Lincs bagging all the glory, JL likely to miss out, etc). This is about as good as it gets, hence the eagerness of many on here to keep the spirit up and just, if nothing else, marvel at the charts and the stunning summer weather

[Darren Bown]

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_180714.png

 

Issued 2014-07-18 14:37:16

Valid: 18/07/2014 1200z to 19/07/2014

 

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

SynopsisLong-wave trough extending south to west of British Isles and into Iberia remains slow-moving whilst becoming increasingly aligned NW-SE (negatively tilted). A strengthening southerly flow continues to transport, warm, moist and unstable flow north across British Isles. A thundery trough in the upper S'erly flow, that brought morning storms, will continue NE across northern Britain reaching N Scotland by midnight. Another thundery low developing over N France Friday PM will move N into S England by midnight, before spreading north across Midlands and Wales Sat morning.

 

... MDT RISK FOR S ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

 

Plume of very warm and dry air at 850mb, evident on 12z Bordeaux and Trappes (Paris) radiosonde ascents above hot but moist surface airmass advecting north is providing a strong cap (lid) to convection this afternoon across France, though 850mb plume is creating steep lapse rates which combined with high temps approaching the mid 30s degrees C, is likely to yield MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. Cooling of mid-upper level temps with approach of upper trough to the west and convergence over N and W France is forecast to erode this cap Friday evening.

 

Model forecasts indicate thunderstorms breaking out this evening across N/W France, already there are storms across W France, which will then track north towards S England tonight. A strengthening southerly jet stream moving up from France and low-to mid level flow backing more SE'erly, as shown on Bordeaux and Trappes ascents, will increase vertical shear - allowing storms to organise upscale into an MCS, which may exhibit bowing line segments on its forward side, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts, and also one or two supercells could be embedded. Large amounts of MLCAPE and strong directional shear shown by GFS suggests threat of large hail. The storm system moving north across the above areas tonight/Sat morning is also likely to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. PWAT (precipitable water) values of 39mm indicated by GFS are very high- so excessive rainfall and flash flooding are a real threat too. Given the likely organisation of an MCS bringing widespread threat of wind damage, large hail and flash flooding - have issued a MODERATE risk of severe storms.

 

The situation will be monitored, given storms have still yet to form, with updates possible to the categorical risk of severe weather.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND, N ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated storms may continue to occur this afternoon and evening, bringing risk of hail, gusty winds and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Further storms are likely to reach N England from the south Saturday morning, with risk of hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, strong wind gusts and localised flooding.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Just on the moderate line there! Is this for the whole of the 19th? Just that there isn't a time stated.

[Andy Pepler]

what ever happens will happen you got to love mother nature according to local data we had over 100 strikes in one square mile of my location...now thats epic ... i have just set up the 2 hd cams ready for tonight and will be streaming from the link below if anything happens

[paul m]

I think tonight paul m the odds are stacked in most people's favour, including yours.

 

The destabilisation is expected to be very widespread and as Nick F's post attests above, moderate risk of turning severe (I personally have never seen Nick F issue such an extensive moderate risk)

 

If after tonight/tomorrow you havent had a decent storm, by all means let rip...but these conditions at present IMO are not subject to the same local variations one often sees in the UK (i.e Lincs bagging all the glory, JL likely to miss out, etc). This is about as good as it gets, hence the eagerness of many on here to keep the spirit up and just, if nothing else, marvel at the charts and the stunning summer weather

Well put Harry and thanks for that. See how nice and polite His post is. Take note people

[Supacell]

Supacell - where are you thinking of as a good starting point tonight? I'm unsure of good viewing spots. I don't want to be off some random motorway exit with an obstructed view lol

 

Hi SjV. If I am honest I really have no idea at the moment. If I follow Estofex then I would be tempted to take a long drive down to the SE but there is the fact that other models seem to have the action to the west of this. In all fairness it looks to be a widespread event and unlike last night I am hopeful that storms will not run out of steam as soon as they move over the Midlands, as such driving such a long distance would probably seem pointless.

 

Although it is a fair distance away a good starting point may be somewhere around the M1/A14 junction (not far from Lutterworth) as the A14 and M6 provide a good west to east route all the way from Birmingham to East Anglia. When we have northward moving storms I find an E-W road to be useful for interception in the same way something like the M1 or A1 is useful for eastward moving storms. As it will be nighttime the hope is that traffic would not be an issue either.

 

Worth noting that care should be taken chasing tonight, I need to take my own advice here, as several mm per hour downpours with frequent lightning, large hail and 60mph winds can make driving very difficult. 

[Dami]

post deleted.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Dami

[Love Snow]

Worried about the lack of sun today in Leeds could effect are storm chance sadly.

[paul m]

Hi SjV. If I am honest I really have no idea at the moment. If I follow Estofex then I would be tempted to take a long drive down to the SE but there is the fact that other models seem to have the action to the west of this. In all fairness it looks to be a widespread event and unlike last night I am hopeful that storms will not run out of steam as soon as they move over the Midlands, as such driving such a long distance would probably seem pointless.

 

Although it is a fair distance away a good starting point may be somewhere around the M1/A14 junction (not far from Lutterworth) as the A14 and M6 provide a good west to east route all the way from Birmingham to East Anglia. When we have northward moving storms I find an E-W road to be useful for interception in the same way something like the M1 or A1 is useful for eastward moving storms. As it will be nighttime the hope is that traffic would not be an issue either.

 

Worth noting that care should be taken chasing tonight, I need to take my own advice here, as several mm per hour downpours with frequent lightning, large hail and 60mph winds can make driving very difficult. 

Take it easy tonight. I t would seem that the Emergency services will be pretty busy as it is

Worried about the lack of sun today in Leeds could effect are storm chance sadly.

DO NOT SAY THAT YOU WILL GET STRUNG UP  I JUST DID

[Darren Bown]

Worried about the lack of sun today in Leeds could effect are storm chance sadly.

mIt's been quite sunny here the last few hours, seems all around West Yorks is struggling ATM, but I shouldn't worry too much as the heat to the south of you has plenty of energy :)666 posts by the way

[Nick L]

maybe then we need another thread? I know we have the 'no storms club' but how about one that amateurs can talk about stuff and moan all we like that we're aren't getting anything, as I feel some of this is aimed at me as I have said quite a bit that my location normally doesn't do well storm wise..

The point i'm making is if being negative is frown upon on this thread, then can we have one that we show our frustrations? I'm not talking bashing other weather organizations either, at moment I don't feel very comfortable posting here atm and it's a shame.

 

I think some are getting the wrong end of the stick here. 

 

There is nothing wrong with pessimism per se. It's just when you get one-liner posts basically whining because they never get anything, it doesn't really do a great deal to the discussion and can take the thread off on a tangent. If you believe you're not going to get much and then post reasons (valid ones, not "because we never get anything") and/or charts to back up your point, then great! That's exactly what this thread is for. 

 

It works both ways in that one-liner, overhyped ramps are also discouraged.

 

This will be the last post concerning the matter on here from me for today, if people are still unsure about what is acceptable and what isn't, or have issues regarding this policy, feel free to give me a PM and we can discuss it further

[weirpig]

I was quite concerned  by the lack of warmth  earlier but  it certainly is a scorcher now   lovely

[Harry]

If in the event Estofex update their forecast to include a Lvl 3 in France, it wouldnt surprise if the 50% thunder zone is expanded also, particularly given recent models favouring further West.

[Supacell]

Big cu development over Derby now. I can't see to my west very well but certainly some to the east. It is also stiflingly hot in hazy sunshine with lower than forecast temperatures of 26c but with a dewpoint of 20c (remarkable by UK standards). 

[ChezWeather]

Its been cloudy but very warm here all day.

 

Think il be heading south at some point tonight, certainly after the horrendous Friday night M1 traffic has calmed down.

 

Good to see that the risk area has been spread further north and wider across the country! 

[Darren Bown]

If in the event Estofex update their forecast to include a Lvl 3 in France, it wouldnt surprise if the 50% thunder zone is expanded also, particularly given recent models favouring further West.

It's very rare for Estofex to update their forecasts, but they may do when issuing Saturday's forecast!

[P-M]

Seeing some Cumulonimbus clouds / towers going up to my south here so maybe in line with the "isolated" storm risk Nick was going on about.  Wish I was a tad further south for this event but I am still excited and enjoy the enthusiasm in some posters when the lightning strikes their area.

[Weather-history]

I wonder if "daytime darkness" is a possibility tomorrow?

[Muffelchen]

Worried about the lack of sun today in Leeds could effect are storm chance sadly.

Been sunny in Adwick for the last two hours.......

[Jane Louise]

My No storms club is purely for frustrations and  moaning and whatever pessimism a member may feel. So please say all you want in there about your lack of storms but keep it in reason too. Please keep this thread free of all misery it really is beginning to get depressing.

 

And please again don't start on me after all I am trying to bring the Optimism and trying to keep this thread flowing. It's so exhausting sometimes trying to keep things as they should be!!!

[Candice]

SkyWarn UK Warning now issued:- https://www.facebook.com/SkyWarnUK

[Mokidugway]

Sun coming out now after annoying convective crud ,even if I don't get any storms I'll be able to sit on my deck chair with a beer in some warm sun !!....