Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Gael_Force]

That's odd, the link works for me just tried it.

Synoptic discussion is member only.

[Nick L]

So as things stand you cannot comment if you think you are not going to get storms. Not allowed to comment if Statistically your area always does pretty poor concerning storms...Only allowed to comment to put other people down when they voice their opinions...... ballarcks to that

 

That's not the case at all and you know very well it isn't. 

 

If people have an issue with the moderating or how the forum is being run, please contact a team member via PM and we'll be happy to discuss it away from the thread.

[sparky1972]

Dont worry we are doing the hot work down here atm and sending it your way Still bright blue sky here n bout 30 degrees Dont know what the humidity is tho.

Good Man, lol

[Generalelectrix]

Quote AWD:

 

"Anywhere in C/S England. SE England, The Midlands, The West Country, East Wales, East Anglia and Southern Northern England look the place to be tonight. 

Anything could happen anywhere in the above areas. "                  

 

Thats put the whole situation in a nutshell, with emphasis on "could" and "anywhere"   The model outputs are running around in circles ATM, now it looks like quite some action for the west midlands in the early morning hours for a change, and I will await the last run before the event to see how it is NOT going to take place! (this is especially referring to GFS) 

We wait and see....

 

Ralph

[Karl83]

Surely the Bristol Shield won't be able to hold that out. Can't wait for the 12z's!

If the Bristol shield can deflect that lot I'm moving house!

[paul m]

That's not the case at all and you know very well it isn't. 

 

If people have an issue with the moderating or how the forum is being run, please contact a team member via PM and we'll be happy to discuss it away from the thread.

not the mods just the cretins who seem to think they know it all. If that is the case perhaps they should work for the met office.....JOB DONE

[Guest]

Supacell - where are you thinking of as a good starting point tonight? I'm unsure of good viewing spots. I don't want to be off some random motorway exit with an obstructed view lol

[BB1979]

Right on cue the forum begins to get heated. I expect ESTOFAX to up to a level 3 on the back of this

[sparky1972]

what difference 3 hours makes, took son to playschool at 12 under dull danky skies, 3 pm pick up and its milky blue skys and temp has shot up.  does not mean we will get a storm but should aid them i guess. might have to get camera ready just in case, there as some stunning pics around of last nights storms.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Right on cue the forum begins to get heated. I expect ESTOFAX to up to a level 3 on the back of this

They have been out in the sun to long. Time for baby to have afternoon nap lol

[Speedway Slider]

There's comment and there is constantly harping on about it.-----------------------------------Paul Blight on UKWeatherworld has just given his latest thoughts. Paul gives his views in an unbiased and measured approach.http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104235-synoptic-discussion-we-18th-20th-july-2014-spanish-plume/page__pid__907299#entry907299The main point is he has upped the risk.

Sorry, I get "ACCESS FORBIDDEN ERROR 403

trying to read that......

[Weather-history]

Synoptic discussion is member only.

Apologies for that.

[alr1970]

If this does go east as Estofex state, does that mean it's game over for the west as the plume will probably have shifted eastwards?It's only about 23c here with 'claggy' looking skies. There's a decent breeze also. It's her humid, but not as much as it could be with the sun out.EDIT: the sun has just come out the first time in a good 4-5 hours.

Same here, conditions are nowhere near what was forecast in terms of heat. 22 as opposed to 27/28. Thoroughly overcast, though it was sunnier at lunchtime and the satellite shows clearer skies not too far off. Not expecting any storms, this is Manchester after all, maybe some light rain tomorrow. It's a shame, cos my garden is getting quite dried up.

[Generalelectrix]

@ Reevesie1: Yes, but they probably are unsure as to where to position it, hence the delay, they are probably awaiting the last model run before the event and then

draw serious conclusions from the SECOND LAST one

 

Ralph

[AWD]

A mix of high res modelling broadly signals the same thing, a cluster of thunderstorms entering the UK around the IOW area and spreading throughout C/S England;

[Neilsouth]

A mix of high res modelling broadly signals the same thing, a cluster of thunderstorms entering the UK around the IOW area and spreading throughout C/S England;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

 

That doesn't follow the current direction of the storms over france....

[paul m]

They have been out in the sun to long. Time for baby to have afternoon nap lol

What sun?

Edited July 18, 2014 by Nick L
Enough of the personal sarcy comments please

[Wivenswold]

That doesn't follow the current direction of the storms over france....

Nor am I convinced they're saying the same thing.Different times and different shaped storms there. 

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2014-07-18 14:37:16

Valid: 18/07/2014 1200z to 19/07/2014

 

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis

Long-wave trough extending south to west of British Isles and into Iberia remains slow-moving whilst becoming increasingly aligned NW-SE (negatively tilted). A strengthening southerly flow continues to transport, warm, moist and unstable flow north across British Isles. A thundery trough in the upper S'erly flow, that brought morning storms, will continue NE across northern Britain reaching N Scotland by midnight. Another thundery low developing over N France Friday PM will move N into S England by midnight, before spreading north across Midlands and Wales Sat morning.

 

... MDT RISK FOR S ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

 

Long-wave trough to extending south to west of British Isles and into Iberia remains slow-moving whilst becoming increasingly aligned NW-SE (negatively tilted). A strengthening southerly flow continues to transport, warm, moist and unstable flow north across British Isles. A thundery trough in the upper S'erly flow, that brought morning storms, will continue NE across northern Britain reaching N Scotland by midnight. Another thundery low developing over N France Friday PM will move N into S England by midnight, before spreading north across Midlands and Wales Sat morning.

 

... MDT RISK FOR S ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

 

Long-wave trough to extending south to west of British Isles and into Iberia remains slow-moving whilst becoming increasingly aligned NW-SE (negatively tilted). A strengthening southerly flow continues to transport, warm, moist and unstable flow north across British Isles. A thundery trough in the upper S'erly flow, that brought morning storms, will continue NE across northern Britain reaching N Scotland by midnight. Another thundery low developing over N France Friday PM will move N into S England by midnight, before spreading north across Midlands and Wales Sat morning.

 

... MDT RISK FOR S ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

 

Plume of very warm and dry air at 850mb, evident on 12z Bordeaux and Trappes (Paris) radiosonde ascents above hot but moist surface airmass advecting north is providing a strong cap (lid) to convection this afternoon across France, though 850mb plume is creating steep lapse rates which combined with high temps approaching the mid 30s degrees C, is likely to yield MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. Cooling of mid-upper level temps with approach of upper trough to the west and convergence over N and W France is forecast to erode this cap Friday evening.

 

Model forecasts indicate thunderstorms breaking out this evening across N/W France, already there are storms across W France, which will then track north towards S England tonight. A strengthening southerly jet stream moving up from France and low-to mid level flow backing more SE'erly, as shown on Bordeaux and Trappes ascents, will increase vertical shear - allowing storms to organise upscale into an MCS, which may exhibit bowing line segments on its forward side, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts, and also one or two supercells could be embedded. Large amounts of MLCAPE and strong directional shear shown by GFS suggests threat of large hail. The storm system moving north across the above areas tonight/Sat morning is also likely to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. PWAT (precipitable water) values of 39mm indicated by GFS are very high- so excessive rainfall and flash flooding are a real threat too. Given the likely organisation of an MCS bringing widespread threat of wind damage, large hail and flash flooding - have issued a MODERATE risk of severe storms.

 

The situation will be monitored, given storms have still yet to form, with updates possible to the categorical risk of severe weather.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND, N ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated storms may continue to occur this afternoon and evening, bringing risk of hail, gusty winds and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Further storms are likely to reach N England from the south Saturday morning, with risk of hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, strong wind gusts and localised flooding.

 

The situation will be monitored, given storms have still yet to form, with updates possible to the categorical risk of severe weather.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND, N ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated storms may continue to occur this afternoon and evening, bringing risk of hail, gusty winds and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Further storms are likely to reach N England from the south Saturday morning, with risk of hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, strong wind gusts and localised flooding.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND, N ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated storms may continue to occur this afternoon and evening, bringing risk of hail, gusty winds and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Further storms are likely to reach N England from the south Saturday morning, with risk of hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, strong wind gusts and localised flooding.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited July 18, 2014 by Nick F

[Jane Louise]

Come on storm lovers let's not ruin this thread with pessimism . We should all be excited whether anything happens or no the fun part is not knowing.Just watch the radars storms can travel anywhere even where they have not been forecast. The build up I find is always  exciting enough in itself .

 

I'm always the optimist I know but gawd look at the potential out there.In a way I have a little fear of intense storms but there is also an excitement there too. Stay safe everyone because who knows what it may all bring.      

 

No pessimistic replies allowed please.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Jane Louise

[Buckster]

stupid hot here in Essex

 

only word for it really even if not technical

 

reminds me of Florida

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_180714.png

 

Issued 2014-07-18 14:37:16

Valid: 18/07/2014 1200z to 19/07/2014

 

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis

Long-wave trough to extending south to west of British Isles and into Iberia remains slow-moving whilst becoming increasingly aligned NW-SE (negatively tilted). A strengthening southerly flow continues to transport, warm, moist and unstable flow north across British Isles. A thundery trough in the upper S'erly flow, that brought morning storms, will continue NE across northern Britain reaching N Scotland by midnight. Another thundery low developing over N France Friday PM will move N into S England by midnight, before spreading north across Midlands and Wales Sat morning.

 

... MDT RISK FOR S ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ...

 

Plume of very warm and dry air at 850mb, evident on 12z Bordeaux and Trappes (Paris) radiosonde ascents above hot but moist surface airmass advecting north is providing a strong cap (lid) to convection this afternoon across France, though 850mb plume is creating steep lapse rates which combined with high temps approaching the mid 30s degrees C, is likely to yield MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. Cooling of mid-upper level temps with approach of upper trough to the west and convergence over N and W France is forecast to erode this cap Friday evening.

 

Model forecasts indicate thunderstorms breaking out this evening across N/W France, already there are storms across W France, which will then track north towards S England tonight. A strengthening southerly jet stream moving up from France and low-to mid level flow backing more SE'erly, as shown on Bordeaux and Trappes ascents, will increase vertical shear - allowing storms to organise upscale into an MCS, which may exhibit bowing line segments on its forward side, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts, and also one or two supercells could be embedded. Large amounts of MLCAPE and strong directional shear shown by GFS suggests threat of large hail. The storm system moving north across the above areas tonight/Sat morning is also likely to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. PWAT (precipitable water) values of 39mm indicated by GFS are very high- so excessive rainfall and flash flooding are a real threat too. Given the likely organisation of an MCS bringing widespread threat of wind damage, large hail and flash flooding - have issued a MODERATE risk of severe storms.

 

The situation will be monitored, given storms have still yet to form, with updates possible to the categorical risk of severe weather.

 

... IRELAND/N IRELAND, N ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND ...

 

Isolated storms may continue to occur this afternoon and evening, bringing risk of hail, gusty winds and torrential rain leading to localised flooding. Further storms are likely to reach N England from the south Saturday morning, with risk of hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, strong wind gusts and localised flooding.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Weather porn :-)

[Convective]

You jinxed it yesterday saying you were going to get all the storms lol

 

It's okay. I've fixed it. 

 

 

Notice the high quality, realistic graphics used.

 

Interesting that the GFS weather overview still doesn't have thunderstorms over the UK for tomorrow. It has been like that for the last few consecutive runs.. Strange but undoubtedly hard to believe.

[Biggin]

good to see the cloud over France has a N Easterly direction to it atm. will prob change to  SE direction over SE UK knowing our luck.

 

Plus a question. Cape  and LI arnt stationary are they?? By that I mean if at 3 oclock the chart has the best over say west london at 5 oclock could the best cape have moved to East London??  IE is the 3 oclock chart just a snapshot at what they think will happen at that precise time ???  Hope it makes sense ))

Anyone got an answer to the above ?? Or is it a stoopid question

[paul m]

Enough of the sarky comments... what about the one in the post I replied to . The point I was making is that statistically (feel free to check with the met office) this area does not do well for storms. people have already pointed out that the crud that is left over from the storms last night could scupper any chances for some. It has happened time and time again. Sorry if that pees people off.