Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Nick L]

CAPE and Li upgraded again for tomorrow as if it needed it!

 

nmmuk-6-35-0.png

 

 

Tonight = fascinating

 

Tomorrow = ultra-fascinating

 

Those values are incredible. They wouldn't look out of place on the US plains in May!

[Willsy]

anyone recon last night was an mcc? (mesoscale convective complex)

[Harry]

CAPE and Li upgraded again for tomorrow as if it needed it!

 

nmmuk-6-35-0.png

 

 

Tonight = fascinating

 

Tomorrow = ultra-fascinating

 

Based on the statistics I would say tonight is ultra-fascinating for us in the SE, IF the storms fire here.

[Golden Hound]

John Hammond said storms moving in during the evening/night time Saturday could be extremely severe with several  inches of rain out of them causing serious issues, anyone have more detail on this?

Edited July 18, 2014 by Golden Hound

[sparky1972]

do we have enough time here for the sun to heat things enough to aid tonights potential, hazy skys now and sun starting to warm things up.

[Harry]

Currently 31C both here and at home (Wilmington, not Chatham)

 

Just been out and I can verify the heat is searing!! Crystal clear blue skies, early haze and AcCas cleared around 10:00am and its been Mediterranean like ever since.

 

Conditions could not be more perfect IMO.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Quite a few pieces of convective cloud haunting the skies of Solihull at the moment. Doubt it will come to much though, with the real potential being tonight and tomorrow. If anyone's worried about their storm shields becoming too strong, just remember to get out your hammer (a very large hammer that is) and smash it to bits! 

 

CAPE and Li upgraded again for tomorrow as if it needed it!

 

nmmuk-6-35-0.png

 

 

Tonight = fascinating

 

Tomorrow = ultra-fascinating

Impressive!

[Neilsouth]

Looks like it's going to be a long night for me;

image.jpg

That's for 04:00 in the morning, IMBY I'm dead on in the middle of that. lol.

 

Not sure how a rain radar can accurately predict where the rain will fall and how intense before it's happened. Just look at last night for example into early hours!

[richjb78]

Hold onto your hats it's spitting in we'd yorkshire lol. And 19c so hot not!!!Well it's 19c and raining in west yorks. No thunder and flash floods expected here. Don't understand why we have a amber alert out.

Amber alert doesn't come into effect until after midnight?

[Lauren]

anyone recon last night was an mcc? (mesoscale convective complex)

I think so. There were certainly different patches of activity and seemed to feed further activity.Do strike maps strictly show CG?

[Hirudine]

More lightning pics on the Beeb;

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28366535

[Neilsouth]

As someone else noted the storms over france are going north, north east and are already south west of us! Whereas last night the storms formed over nw france and channel isle and then exploded towards the south. I think the met is going to be slightly out on this one ( not unusual ). Estofex looking good with it's forecast.

 

Kent may well see storms

[Convective]

Not this again... it is evident that the Met Office h.a.t.e the Isle of Man.....

 

[Biggin]

good to see the cloud over France has a N Easterly direction to it atm. will prob change to  SE direction over SE UK knowing our luck.

 

Plus a question. Cape  and LI arnt stationary are they?? By that I mean if at 3 oclock the chart has the best over say west london at 5 oclock could the best cape have moved to East London??  IE is the 3 oclock chart just a snapshot at what they think will happen at that precise time ???  Hope it makes sense ))

[Harry]

John Hammond said storms moving in during the evening/night time Saturday could be extremely severe with several  inches of rain out of them causing serious issues, anyone have more detail on this?

 

Based on what I've seen, he's pretty much spot on.

 

CAPE/LI, shear, heat, humidity, lapse rates, pretty much everything is perfect for severe thunderstorms, potential for supercells and/or MCS and/or bow echoes. 

 

There is potential for several hours of torrential rain, frequent lightning, large hail (Estofex thinking potential for hail upwards of 5cm, but maybe this is more reserved for France), strong wind gusts and yes the potential for some tornados (and NOT necessarily the 'mini' variety).

 

All in all its an exceptional period of weather in the coming 36-48 hours with many areas of England and Wales in particular at risk of this severe weather.

 

Tonight the highest risk of severe appears to be London and the Home Counties (with Kent, Sussex, Surrey, London, Hampshire, Brighton & Hove and Essex at the greatest risk based on Estofex' thinking) though the risk of intense thunderstorms generally anywhere from Kent to Devon and northwards. Tomorrow the focus shifts to home grown thunderstorms once the overnight action has moved off, with the potential for some intense, severe thunderstorms to break out anywhere really across England and Wales and perhaps S Scotland. Then there is some variability in the models as to what may happen tomorrow night, with some including the UKMO pointing towards yet more widespread thunderstorms breaking out from the South and spreading North tomorrow night and through Sunday morning. Sunday at the moment seems to be largely down to what happens today and tomorrow. If for whatever reason the introduction of fresher Atlantic air is delayed, the threat of more severe weather persists chiefly across C and E England. If the CF has cleared through by this point, then potential for some 'UK standard' heavy and thundery showers, most likely again across C, S, and E England.

 

That's the best I can summarise it at this stage - basically there's a lot of uncertainty (as always with convective weather), as last night proved with a far wider outbreak of very active thunderstorms than was anticipated.

 

Whatever happens, stay safe and do bear in mind these storms are not expected to be our usual stuff - frequent, rapidly developing and severe thunderstorms appear likely with the threat of potentially dangerous weather (certainly by our standards anyway)

 

Good luck one and all

Edited July 18, 2014 by Harry

[Cloud 10]

Just goes to show the difficulties the models have in predicting thunderstorms,even at 

very close range.

 

Storms have broken out already across France,and yet the 2km resolution NMM 

shows nothing.

 

 

 

Mind you,the same model has some eye watering cape+li for France this evening.

 

 

 

[Harry]

As someone else noted the storms over france are going north, north east and are already south west of us! Whereas last night the storms formed over nw france and channel isle and then exploded towards the south. I think the met is going to be slightly out on this one ( not unusual ). Estofex looking good with it's forecast.

 

Kent may well see storms

 

Worth noting the MetO has a yellow warning for much of S England for tonight, including the SE...whether this upgrades to amber later given the apparent severe risk, who knows.

[Biggin]

do we have enough time here for the sun to heat things enough to aid tonights potential, hazy skys now and sun starting to warm things up.

Dont worry we are doing the hot work down here atm and sending it your way Still bright blue sky here n bout 30 degrees Dont know what the humidity is tho.

[Chris101]

Right car hired, damage waiver sorted, just a case of wait and see where things are heading (probably straight for my house now lol).

 

Question- Is there a netweather app so i can get on the forum quickly?

[Darren Bown]

If this does go east as Estofex state, does that mean it's game over for the west as the plume will probably have shifted eastwards?

It's only about 23c here with 'claggy' looking skies. There's a decent breeze also. It's her humid, but not as much as it could be with the sun out.

EDIT: the sun has just come out the first time in a good 4-5 hours.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Darren Bown

[Harry]

Just goes to show the difficulties the models have in predicting thunderstorms,even at 

very close range.

 

Storms have broken out already across France,and yet the 2km resolution NMM 

shows nothing.

 

viewimage.pngnmm_fr1-1-7-0.png

 

 

Mind you,the same model has some eye watering cape+li for France this evening.

 

nmm_fr1-6-13-0.png

 

I dont think I've ever seen an LI of -14!!! That's insane even by US standards...and its only just across the Channel and heading this way!

 

I wouldnt be too concerned with models at this stage - the airmass is SO SO unstable the an overzealous fart could cause eruptions....quite literally

Edited July 18, 2014 by Harry

[andymusic]

Amber severe weather warning as storms expected for UK

 

18 July 2014 - An amber severe weather warning for parts of the UK has been issued by the Met Office as intense thunderstorms are expected through Friday night and the weekend which could cause disruption.

[laserguy]

John Hammond said storms moving in during the evening/night time Saturday could be extremely severe with several  inches of rain out of them causing serious issues, anyone have more detail on this?

 

I'm gonna fire up me plasma ball and get the missus to push the wheelie bin up and down the path to simulate the storms that I won't get but everyone else will. Today was supposed to be outrageously hot but no - it's pretty cool even by my standards and the sun has yet to put in the most fleeting of appearances - FAIL. The storms will go the same way, I have no doubt whatsoever.

[Golden Hound]

Based on what I've seen, he's pretty much spot on.

 

CAPE/LI, shear, heat, humidity, lapse rates, pretty much everything is perfect for severe thunderstorms, potential for supercells and/or MCS and/or bow echoes. 

 

There is potential for several hours of torrential rain, frequent lightning, large hail (Estofex thinking potential for hail upwards of 5cm, but maybe this is more reserved for France), strong wind gusts and yes the potential for some tornados (and NOT necessarily the 'mini' variety).

 

All in all its an exceptional period of weather in the coming 36-48 hours with many areas of England and Wales in particular at risk of this severe weather.

 

Tonight the highest risk of severe appears to be London and the Home Counties (with Kent, Sussex, Surrey, London, Hampshire, Brighton & Hove and Essex at the greatest risk based on Estofex' thinking) though the risk of intense thunderstorms generally anywhere from Kent to Devon and northwards. Tomorrow the focus shifts to home grown thunderstorms once the overnight action has moved off, with the potential for some intense, severe thunderstorms to break out anywhere really across England and Wales and perhaps S Scotland. Then there is some variability in the models as to what may happen tomorrow night, with some including the UKMO pointing towards yet more widespread thunderstorms breaking out from the South and spreading North tomorrow night and through Sunday morning. Sunday at the moment seems to be largely down to what happens today and tomorrow. If for whatever reason the introduction of fresher Atlantic air is delayed, the threat of more severe weather persists chiefly across C and E England. If the CF has cleared through by this point, then potential for some 'UK standard' heavy and thundery showers, most likely again across C, S, and E England.

 

That's the best I can summarise it at this stage - basically there's a lot of uncertainty (as always with convective weather), as last night proved with a far wider outbreak of very active thunderstorms than was anticipated.

 

Whatever happens, stay safe and do bear in mind these storms are not expected to be our usual stuff - frequent, rapidly developing and severe thunderstorms appear likely with the threat of potentially dangerous weather (certainly by our standards anyway)

 

Good luck one and all

Thanks, living at the bottom of a hill that runs for almost a mile means flash flooding for sure, seen it several times already this year but about 14 years ago we had a good hour of real heavy rain and the road became a river about 2ft deep.

[James M]

Very dull and cloudy here sadly. Haven't got a clue what will happen up here tomorrow, normally we get nothing. But it's exciting watching developments

None the less.