Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[JMTD]

What an absolutely horrible day. Unbelievably hot and humid, just nothing in the air. Already had a few rumbles about 20 minutes back. Had a couple in the night, luckily didn't get smashed like most people close by in the night. Incredibly that was just the stuff that wasn't hardly forecast too, it'll just be the starter for the main course and dessert that's to come over Friday/Saturday 

[sparky1972]

well after a bit of sunshine, things now very cloudy again, just not getting the energy or humidity, the storms will just die before they get here

Edited July 18, 2014 by sparky1972

[stompy]

Any one have any good high spots in the east midlands to watch these storms? I was thinking Breedon on the Hill church but I dont know if that is too exposed to go and watch thunderstorms from?

[Will Padz]

25c already and clouds extremely convective... Low level clouds drifting south upper level drifting north....somethings going to go bang soon...quite humid too...

[Wivenswold]

If last night taught us anything, it's that several days of stressing about model outcomes is a complete waste of time and energy. 

 

Didn't get a direct hit here but I did enjoy several hours of spectacular lightning in the distance. It wasn't in any of the forecasts. 

[boogercj]

From Estofex: "CAPE locally exceeding 4000 J/kg in northern France according to both models"

[sparky1972]

local met office forecast for my postcode is sunny and 31c at this rate we will be lucky to hit 21c, so cloudy and brezzy, and getting darker, and now raining again.

Edited July 18, 2014 by sparky1972

[dapick2002]

Chin up sparky we already have thunder and lightning here in market deeping accompanied by that light rain. Incredibly humid feel.

[TEITS]

This has surprised me. I expected a few light showers followed by hot sunshine, currently I have lightning and thunder. The knock on effect is I doubt we shall reach the predicted temps unless these storms pass through quickly.

 

I think this is our 7th or 8th storm this summer. Can any other Peterborough members confirm the number?

[Eye to the sky]

Thunder to the east of Derby with very threatening skies.Its a battle between the showers and sun at the moment with the showers winning.Feeling very muggy as well.

[The PIT]

Normal Thundery weather. Odd light shower and drizzle cool and cloudy at the moment. Sheffield Shield in full hyper drive shredding mode. Storms about but fizzling out as soon as they approach us.

[Darren Bown]

Thunder to the east of Derby with very threatening skies.Its a battle between the showers and sun at the moment with the showers winning.Feeling very muggy as well.

We both need something to flare up S of us for a good and unexpected direct hit

[Bermuda Skies]

Woken up around 3.00am with a massive strike, just managed to get a couple of shots before it died out. Been rumbling on for most of the morning here. Looking forward to the main event later!

 

[sparky1972]

Chin up sparky we already have thunder and lightning here in market deeping accompanied by that light rain. Incredibly humid feel.

have packed the tripod and camera away, rain getting heavier, still a fresh feel to things outside today, looking out peterborough way things do look alot darker, i might be able to hear the thunder Teits has got.

well this has killed the heat and humidity, heavy rain, no thunder, no lightening, no sunshine, all things needed to aid the storms.

Edited July 18, 2014 by sparky1972

[Wivenswold]

Altocumulus has erupted from clear skies here in the last 20 minutes. Maybe that finger of high pressure isn't as strong as forecast. 

[Lynxus]

Wow, Looking at the Sat24 today, Looks like zero chance for sunshine around here today.

 

I hope something pops up later down south.

 

Last nights storm was something else.

Flashes every 5 to 6 seconds. Constant rumbling. 1 in 10 was CG strikes however most was IC.

[Harsh Climate]

The weather is just so cruel at times 

 

Those lucky sods in the south who saw some brilliant lightning displays last night should get an even bigger/more dramatcic serving tonight, before round 3 comes up saturday afternoon/evening!!!

 

While us in the north are left to fight for scraps. I'm half tempted to drive down to the south and book a hotel so I don't miss out lol.

[VillagePlank]

Whilst further homegrown t/storms may happen, this is primarily about French imports into Southern and South-Eastern England overnight.

 

The action, proper, starts with a convergence zone stretching across the majority of Northern France

 

 

This is the trigger that will initiate convection. Convection occurs in a high theta-w environment,

 

 

As the higher theta-w air moves in it will start to feel very very uncomfortable. The cells formed over N France will move North into Southern Britain which will be in a moderately convective environment (KI=32,LI=-1), however, it will be capped (CIN=22) preventing any further storm development.

 

 

However, and this I think is the crucial part - the temperature and the moisture content from the theta-w air will build under the cap, and then this little fella,

 

 

will skirt overhead and break the cap for us to allow for further cell development.

 

Important to note: the cells are not going to be made here, this evening, they are being imported; this is all about the chance of them dying off before reaching us, and, based on above, I don't think that cells dying to rain showers is going to happen.

 

Saturday is the day for homegrown with the added fun of loads of CAPE, and a cold front

Edited July 18, 2014 by Sparkicle

[BA Baracus]

The weather is just so cruel at times 

 

Those lucky sods in the south who saw some brilliant lightning displays last night should get an even bigger/more dramatcic serving tonight, before round 3 comes up saturday afternoon/evening!!!

 

While us in the north are left to fight for scraps. I'm half tempted to drive down to the south and book a hotel so I don't miss out lol.

 

True - weather is absolute pap here at the moment.  Cool breezy and grey

[Wilxy]

How highly rated is the EURO4 model is it the best model to use for forecasting tricky situations like tonight,

[Karl83]

GFS 06z is tastey. Must get some lightning shots with the SLR but its so convenient shooting video from your phone and capturing stills!

 

What a great period this is!

[Tim Bland]

Looks like we peaked 24hrs early! Great storms last night. Latest GFS doesnt look that great for tonight now. Maybe tommorow afternoon will be the main event?

[Cloud 10]

Woken up around 3.00am with a massive strike, just managed to get a couple of shots before it died out. Been rumbling on for most of the morning here. Looking forward to the main event later!

 

 

WOW!

 

Lets see the other shot.

[Allseasons-Si]

Rumble of thunder here.

[Harsh Climate]

True - weather is absolute pap here at the moment.  Cool breezy and grey

 

 

Thankfully we have a bit of sunshine here poking through, but hard to see anything develop with all this crappy cloud around.

 

 

I suppose our threat of big storms has and always will come down to home grown ones, the sort where there is little wind and they develop slap bang over you.