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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Lightning visible from here for last 15 miniutes, very distant.

Edited by dave48
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Looks crap for most of the west/west midlands in all honesty. The slip eastwards is underway.

 

I don't think that Estofex forecast covers the potential blob of torrential rain modelled to push Nw'wards through the W country, Midlands and North Wales & beyond on Saturday morning. It only goes up to 0600hrs, where the met office have a separate, earlier blob pushing NE'wards from the South in the early hours.

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

You clearly havent read the charts at all. That forecast is only till 6am Saturday. All models clearly show an initial are affecting the East as per Estofex then from dawn onwards another surge occurs affecting Central and Western areas. 

 

I have...and that was my point. It looks crap for that time period. It may improve after and we may still get a battering. 

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

I have...and that was my point. It looks crap for that time period. It may improve after and we may still get a battering. 

So its not really looking crap is it? Lol. SSE steering winds and a wave on the trough/front should quite easily ensure things back west during the day.

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Snowshine Enthusiast

Snowshine

Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire
Posted (edited)

Actually the values are better on the 18z than the 12z for the Midlands, just the highest values East but this keeps moving around Each run. Pointless looking at it run to run now really. Models seem pretty confident that an initial push overnight will affect the East but by Dawn, the Midlands looks to get pounded.

I hadn't seen the 12z model (until now), but quite suprised how it downgraded the CAPE significantly across most of the West / Midlands, so the 18z is an upgrade. I was actually referring to the previous 0z and 6z models. But, still about another 5 model runs until we get a better idea of what will happen, so I'm not too enthusiastic at this moment

Edited by Cumulonimbus123
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

distant fork lightning observed now

 

ello ello it seems to be picking up now along the centre of the surface trough....my pessimism may soon be undone with it seemingly heading this way :)

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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

Stonking forecast from estofex tonight! Very rare to have wording such as "giant hail" and "extremely severe wind gusts" when describing convective potential in the UK. Seems like a bow-echo could possibly form over Northern France in the evening and affect parts of Southern England later on in the night  :shok:

 

For those further north and west, remember that the estofex warning only covers the period from 6am on Friday to 6am on Saturday, when storms are not forecast to be much further north than the warning area indicates.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Loads of distant flashes on the dawlish cam now

 

http://www.dawlishbeach.com/live/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=18

 

bodes well after crossing the channel

Edited by allseasons-si
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Rustynailer Aficionado

Rustynailer

Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
Posted

Continuous lightning now very impressive group of storms indeed. I will be even more impressed if tomorrow is any better.....

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

ello ello it seems to be picking up now along the centre of the surface trough....my pessimism may soon be undone with it seemingly heading this way :)

Damn I've just got into bed. Might have to get out!!

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tara303 Newbie

tara303

Posted
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
Posted

Ah heor lads !!!! :wink: - earlier it looked like the storm was headed our way - now it looks like it's being pulled east!  watching south ...

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Great lightning now to my south becoming more frequent

That's it, I'm going outside.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Damn I've just got into bed. Might have to get out!!

 

I would its just suddenly becoming more flashy

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Yep seen 3 forks in 3 mins. seems to be heading this way.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

This shows the surface trough feature nicely....

 

post-15172-0-71179500-1405638805_thumb.j

 

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Lightning Ed Apprentice

Lightning Ed

Posted
  • Location: Warlingham (J6 M25) 175m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Still/Hot or extremes. Fog/Damp etc boring...
  • Location: Warlingham (J6 M25) 175m ASL
Posted

New forest getting a good show :)

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

Things really kicking off around the IOW now and all this pushing north. I do not think it will keep that level of intensity but still could provide a light show across a swathe of CS England and into the S Midlands. It may even get as far as here in the early morning, but will be just the odd rumble by then I feel.

 

Estofex very interesting for late Friday/early Saturday. With a level 2 warning in the SE and a scope of extreme hail and wind gusts, not to mention frequent lightning, between 00z and 06z I am tempted to take a long drive down there after work tomorrow.

 

EDIT: Kicking off more widely now along that line Somerset to IOW, moving north.

Edited by Supacell
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Cyclonic Enthusiast

Cyclonic

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, tornados
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted (edited)

Insane here

 

Edit, this is freaking my dog out, booming constant thunder, lightning extremely bright, pretty much daylight and so frequent cant keep count of the strikes....totally nuts here

Edited by Cyclonic
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