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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Just looked at the radar, THAT it is what you call plume destabilisation :D

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Abbot, South Devon
  • Location: Newton Abbot, South Devon

Lightning maps just dropped a steric about 2 miles away from here. Nothing doing though, so appears to be a few anomalies as suggested a minute ago.

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Just looked at the radar, THAT it is what you call plume destabilisation :D

Definitely an MCS now, though that looks to miss the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

like this on meteociel the video shows well how much storms are going to break out on Saturday and even has some pretty intense stuff making it through Scotland on saturday 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/videos_wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=14

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Just had a look at the latest UKV forecast for tomorrow evening.

 

6pm...  midnight..

 

 

flippin eck'!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Heavens above, Small hours of saturday morning look quite exceptional, that would be one noisy night and early wake up for many !

 

I'm expecting a level 2 from esto pretty soon tbh! But imagine if they dished out a level 3!! I think id wet myself and be slightly anxious!

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey

Hi @all

Beginning to look very interesting surprisingly early in the event already, wow..  Harry posted a question a bit earlier on: 

 

quote:"Does anyone have any thoughts on the potential for an MCS Saturday night also?"

 

This model is pretty much more often correct than not IMO

 

http://www.modellzentrale.de/WRF/animate2b.htm?../12Z/?25?h/maxDBZ_eu.png?3?0

 

Edit: Excuse moi, I thought this link would send you straight to the Piccie, but it doesnt, so you have to download all images and then forward click to Sat 19 Jul 06z

 

 

 

Shows some whopper storm with max dBz of 60+ (!!) predicted radar reflectivity spanning right from London to Dover. Havent seen this predicted for quite a while. That could be our Saturday morning MCS,

and what a violent one.. Might be useful to keep an eye on the next runs.

 

Here the link: http://www.modellzentrale.de/WRF/index_all_en.php  (click on sim. reflectivity/shear)

 

We wait and see, huh? :)

 

Ralph

Edited by Generalelectrix
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Courtesy of severe-weather.eu

post-15177-0-09574000-1405624258_thumb.p

A MDT risk has been issued for W France and English Channel for large to very large hail, heavy rainfall, severe wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms should cluster into large system towards the evening and spread northwards with severe wind and excessive rainfall threat overnight.

A SLGT risk has been issued for S-CNTRL British Isles, W-CNTRL France, NE Spain for large hail, heavy rainfall and severe wind gusts.

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Heavens above, Small hours of saturday morning look quite exceptional, that would be one noisy night and early wake up for many ! I'm expecting a level 2 from esto pretty soon tbh! But imagine if they dished out a level 3!! I think id wet myself and be slightly anxious!

just as we'll you don't live in Germany ,you would need a nappy ,:)........
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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Just had a look at the latest UKV forecast for tomorrow evening.

 

6pm...Posted Imageukpcp27blend.png  midnight..Posted Imageukpcp33blend.png

 

 

flippin eck'!

That looks better position wise than i thought it would, i might not have to drive so far if that comes off.

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

I don't see an MCS in the s.w. , just thundery rain , maybe in a couple of hours it may grow.... but more likely on friday afternoon in the midlands.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Level1 from Estofex for tonight, possible MCS as it approaches southern England

 

http://www.estofex.org/

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

New cell just formed near Rennes

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Heavens above, Small hours of saturday morning look quite exceptional, that would be one noisy night and early wake up for many !

 

I'm expecting a level 2 from esto pretty soon tbh! But imagine if they dished out a level 3!! I think id wet myself and be slightly anxious!

 

Going by the map Cloud 10 posted the 20,000,000 people in the south east will have no early wake up :lazy:

Favoured arrears will chop n change over the next 24 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Nothing much heading up this way at the moment, but my sky to the south, has a bubbly 'mammantus' look about it

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Level1 from Estofex for tonight, possible MCS as it approaches southern England http://www.estofex.org/

Level 2 for Lands End. ;) ;)
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

thundering in newton abbot as my dad reports

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Posted
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey

Quote"just as we'll you don't live in Germany ,you would need a nappy , :)........ "

@ Mokidugway: Harhar, I AM in Germany on work ATM :spiteful: Had planned to come over to the UK over the WE, but who knows..... :db: 

 

Ralph 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Just heard the first rumble. Bring it on

hiya!....my dad's on queens rd on the buckland estate....he just phoned me to say a few rumbles from the south, Torquay/Brixham way

 

he's an OAP now but still a storm nut.....runs in the family....lol

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
AWD, on 17 Jul 2014 - 20:19, said:

Level 2 for Lands End. ;) ;)

Yeah, they are just in on the level2, could get interesting down there later.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Line of showers not far away from south coast now not looking thundery but looks amazing for Devon and Cornwall.

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

I hope someone can confirm an MCS visually and post here. Fingers crossed and good luck to you.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

OH YES PLEASE :yahoo:  :shok:

 

post-18233-0-98333700-1405625000_thumb.p

 

COME ON SCOTLAND LETS HAVE IT THIS TIME I'M SICK OF MISSING OUT!!!!!

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