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Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Yeh Yeh we shall see, been awhile since we've had a good FORECASTED storm :p

BBC has dumped my thunderstorms for Sunday and replaced them with light showers! :p:laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

BBC has dumped my thunderstorms for Sunday and replaced them with light showers! :p:laugh:

 

Oh so storms are certain then? hah :D

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Oh so storms are certain then? hah :D

More confident of getting some thunder Sunday, now that they have dumped them :laugh: , but if the symbol returns later, then drizzle it is! :(

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

Highest CAPE and LI's that we've seen all year?!

Posted Imageukcapeli (1).png

that chart is for 2039   :doh:

Edited by Sprites
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Groundhog day at

 

http://www.dortmund-airport.de/index.php?id=1170&cam=2&L=0

 

seen some nice cg's.

 

meanwhile back at home, a small shower developing here.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Don't think even the Borg collective could punch a hole through my storm shield !!.....

You did ok a few weeks ago. The most we managed here was a few rumbles and flashes n it headed off sharpish

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

you're looking at surface cape and lift values.....there's actually some mid-level instability that has been pushed into eastern counties associated with theta-e rich WAA from the south east. This combining with an extra forcing mechanism of steepening lapse rate in the mid-layers is allowing mid-level convection in the form of the odd embedded Cb to occur giving the odd sferic. 

 

Sorry about the delay in replying, thanks for the explanation seems theres more to learn and more angles to look at. One of my friends said he heard rolling thunder but didn't see any lightning. Totally missed that myself :)

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Yep, spot on. GFS's 700/500hPa WBPT progs show marked ridge of moisture aloft over eastern England, with relatively high temps at 850hPa contributing to steep mid-level lapse rates. Was going to mention the risk of isolated elevated activity for that region yesterday evening, but thought perhaps too low a risk and isolated in nature.  Oh well lol.  

 

That's also interesting that although it looks like a cap for surface based convection it could actually be good for mid-level convection.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

forgot about that Paul ,I guess I've got a short memory !!....

I get that too fred

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

I'm looking at tomorrow with a slight bit of interest. As these fronts push through we introduce some fairly good instability and energy across much of the western side of the country, perhaps introducing the risk of some convective pulses amongst the mostly dynamic rainfall. Maybe the odd storm mixed in. Other than that, the eastern side could fair well tomorrow with the sun breaking through to set off a few heavy showers, and the odd heavy thunderstorm which could last quite late into the night before being shoved into the North Sea with the frontal rain hot on their heels.

 

EDIT: Estofex also keen on the same area previously discussed.

 

Posted Image

 

I can see moonlit ACCAS actually! Didn't know there was any instability there just yet.... :)

Edited by Convective
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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

I had a distant rumble of thunder on...um...Thursday I believe :)   And I can announce that I actually saw 2 CGs at Hampton Court on Tuesday :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I'm looking at tomorrow with a slight bit of interest. As these fronts push through we introduce some fairly good instability and energy across much of the western side of the country, perhaps introducing the risk of some convective pulses amongst the mostly dynamic rainfall. Maybe the odd storm mixed in. Other than that, the eastern side could fair well tomorrow with the sun breaking through to set off a few heavy showers, and the odd heavy thunderstorm which could last quite late into the night before being shoved into the North Sea with the frontal rain hot on their heels.

 

EDIT: Estofex also keen on the same area previously discussed.

 

Posted Image

 

I can see moonlit ACCAS actually! Didn't know there was any instability there just yet.... :)

Looks good. Will keep my eye out except I don't see any rain at all yet.

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

saw some good model forecasts on about cape levels in model forecast by summer sun for today but east coast full of fog  was thick last night here still foggy now.  

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

saw some good model forecasts on about cape levels in model forecast by summer sun for today but east coast full of fog  was thick last night here still foggy now.

Yeah, full coverage of cloud here like a blanket. It is warm though and quite muggy.
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Just has a met office weather warning for heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms to breakout this afternoon due to mid 20's temps.....

It may have been issued earlier, except only just switched internet on!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Just has a met office weather warning for heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms to breakout this afternoon due to mid 20's temps.....

It may have been issued earlier, except only just switched internet on!!!!

 

Only issued at 10.50am this morning so certainly raises the interest level for today.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Only issued at 10.50am this morning so certainly raises the interest level for today.

Indeed, I'm JUST inside it meaning most of Kent will flood under supercellular rains :DImportant to note the likelihood is the lowest on the scale!MetO forecast text for London & South East interesting, presumably the same right the way up the C and E portions of the country:Tonight:Becoming cloudy from the west through the evening with heavy, thundery showers likely, these continuing overnight. Feeling humid with light winds away from the heavy showers. Minimum Temperature 16 °C. Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Indeed, I'm JUST inside it meaning most of Kent will flood under supercellular rains :DImportant to note the likelihood is the lowest on the scale!

 

I'm just outside it,so looking good. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Ok im on the east side of the city and clouds have broken. Wow the sun is kicking out some heat here! Still feels humid.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Yep cloud thinning here too...no direct beaming sun yet though.

Is warm and humid and should the sun make it out it won't take long to hear up

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