Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[paul m]

Interesting but not excited yet. Expect to the west of here will get all the action Friday and on Saturday I'll be able to watch the huge clouds to the east of me delivering the action while I sit under drizzle.

Totally agree.

[Mokidugway]

Some impressively high dew-points for Saturday,widely between 19-21c.

 

nmmuk-18-72-0.png

 

Gonna be a tad sweaty!

 

images.jpg

noticed that , dew on car at 18 c!!!

[Harry]

Some impressively high dew-points for Saturday,widely between 19-21c.

 

nmmuk-18-72-0.png

 

Gonna be a tad sweaty!

 

images.jpg

Those are very impressive dew points!! Wow what an exciting period of weather!

[Chris K]

If you have not seen it already - this is quite interesting from the BBC weather website on how the super typhoon 10 or so days ago has apparently caused this upcoming hot spell & potential associated storms here in the UK.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/28334771

Edited July 16, 2014 by Chris K

[> mark]

If you have not seen it already - this is quite interesting from the BBC weather website on how the super typhoon 10 or so days ago has apparently caused this upcoming hot spell & potential associated storms here in the UK.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/28334771

 

 

Thanks for that Chris, very interesting indeed

[Chris K]

Also,

 

Severe Weather Europe's take on Thursday Night/early Friday's risk.

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-valid-17072014/

 

The text forecasts specifically for the UK...

 

An upper ridge is persisting across south-central Europe, a short wave is affecting Scandinavia. A new short wave is pushing from the west of Iberia towards the UK. A weak upper low is still affecting S Balkans and areas towards SW Russia.

A SLGT+ risk has been issued for WNW France into S UK with threat for excessive rainfall and severe winds. Moderately unstable and sheared environment should support organized severe storms once they initiate along the N-wards advecting frontal boundary in W France and should tend to cluster into MCS towards UK overnight.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Thoughts of PJB on UKww, GFS has moved towards the ECM today, first trough Thursday night see's storms firing from Lyme bay Westwards. NOTE- Storms will NOT be routed aloft but will initialize from destabilisation of the 850 level.

 

Friday night, strong destabilisation occurs and a greater than 50% chance of an MCS forming over N France and the Channel moving into CS England and parts of the SE, UKMO is slightly further East with this. Storms will initially be routed aloft but will merge with surface based convection on Saturday with further heavy thunderstorms breaking out.

 

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/104182-spanish-plume-for-18th19th/page__pid__906717__st__40#entry906717

Nooo, not the dreaded overnight French MCS  They really are a total nuisance up here. Guarantees thick cloud completely choking off any developments the following day. I'd have to go back to the late 80s to find an MCS with something to say!

[boogercj]

These forecasts are so tantalising. Probably Devon's best chance for something spectacular tomorrow night so I'll be watching the radars. Keep it coming!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Talk about being on the horns of a dilemma - If (and it is a BIG if) there's a chance of finally getting an out of focus shot of distant lightning at night, I'm torn between heading to Wymondham and a little spot with a great 360 degree view, or staying at home with various concerned canines and parking my van in the middle of the fields with a slightly more restricted view

[Pursuer of Storms]

Hi all. My first post here! Was travelling through Milton Keynes tonight and think I may have got a funnel cloud at around 9pm. Was there for about half a minute before it disappeared. I saw something very similar near a small cell close to home last year but that turned out to be a scud cloud and I guess this could be one too. Still, it looked pretty cool whatever it was! Had some big rain a few minutes later. I have got some pics. Just need to figure out how to attach them 

[Flipflop]

Upgrade to wet your thunder lips..still room for change though! 

[anything-but]

I`ll hope for this on Friday/Saturday!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2014 by anything-but

[Costa Del Fal]

Now I know its not to be taken literally but at face value that 22.35 BBC forecast for Saturday was just insane esp for the Midlands and Southern England! Pleasing to see this plume being pushed west at the moment! I have said this before already but I really feel some of the storms seen already this year and those last year seem to be a return to 90s style set ups in some way, certainly beating much of the 2008-12 type nothingness etc.

 

Should note how the upper winds are South Easterly here on Saturday which is PERFECT for here and many others.

Edited July 16, 2014 by Costa Del Fal

[Cheshire Freeze]

Severe

 

[Pursuer of Storms]

These are the best shots I managed to get. Sorry about them being a bit dark. If you need to edit them that's fine

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1567-funnel-cloud-over-milton-keynes/

 

Very humid here at the moment. I think we could be in some some pretty good ones tomorrow! 

Edited July 16, 2014 by Pursuer of Storms

[Buckster]

18z out

 

looks slightly more toned down CAPE wise

 

but more prolonged - here in S-East looks good Fri morning through to Sunday evening ?

[shaky]

Severe

 

oh my dear lord that looks better and more severe than the 12z!!12z only had -5 li!!but 18z has -9!!

[shaky]

Take a look at the temperatures aswell for saturday!!at one point we were looking at 24 tops but now its more like 27 degrees widely and 28 or 29 degrees across the east midlands and the south east . definitely will aid convection. ....

[Captain Shortwave]

Take a look at the temperatures aswell for saturday!!at one point we were looking at 24 tops but now its more like 27 degrees widely and 28 or 29 degrees across the east midlands and the south east . definitely will aid convection. ....

Yep the GFS has a maximum of 29C in London for Saturday with temperatures into the 80s widely across England, and that is with probably the worst 850s out of all of the models.

not bad, loaded gun sounds about right for this 

[shaky]

Take a look at the temperatures aswell for saturday!!at one point we were looking at 24 tops but now its more like 27 degrees widely and 28 or 29 degrees across the east midlands and the south east . definitely will aid convection. ....

[Stormyking]

Sorry if this is immature but you

Can tell this is the pub run haha!

Anyways on a serious note, things looking really quite good for the channel islands tomorrow, but my fingers are crosses!

Edited July 16, 2014 by Stormyking

[Staffordshire]

Think I'm going have to try and get the day off Saturday if these Synoptics stay the same, maybe have a bit of a chase

[Wilxy]

Sorry if this is immature but youCan tell this is the pub run haha!Anyways on a serious note, things looking really quite good for the channel islands tomorrow, but my fingers are crosses!

 

Only the best from you ryan haha.

[marksp]

good shots from July 2013 taken from Crich stand overlooking Nottingham and Trent valley

light2.MTS.wmv

[lassie23]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/28334771

 

Interesting video from the BBC, might have already been posted!