Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Ditto across the SE me ol' mucka!! :D

Yeah looks really good for me on Friday Night, I can just picture Sat24.com!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Really hoping that Scotland can join in on some of the action during Friday/Saturday! SBCAPE + MUCAPE aren't looking too great for us though  :(

 

Pleasantly surprised that the Met Office have included Eastern Scotland in their warning. Perhaps their high-resolution UKV model is showing more destabilisation of the lower atmosphere over this area than the WRF-NMM or the GFS  :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

John Hammond just said the UK is in for an Interesting ride this weekend! Sounds great but doesn't look like I'm getting anything from this at all.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

It was looking good many times for here on the lead up to an event, only for nothing to happen.

Having had a look at everything I can that might cover my location, it does look as though I'll miss out. A bypass to the west on Friday am and probably a bypass to my east on Saturday- as it stands now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

It's silly to rule anything in or out at the moment. We're all having that mixture of excitement and pessimism that comes around when something interesting is afoot. 

 

As any seasoned storm-chaser knows, thunderstorms are difficult to second-guess.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

Probably not the right thread so apologies, but looking at the storm forecast for Bedford shows, for example,dewpoint 20c, cape 2431j/kg and li at -7 (yes i know this will change, but i'm guessing its good if you like storms) So i was wondering what kind of figures to be looking for to get excited about?  

 

I don't think i'm explaining myself very well, but for this amateur those figures look shall i say eye opening.

Edited by Dami
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Unexpected line of very heavy rain here currently, suppose going to the shop will have to wait! :pardon:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

good afternoon all, looking forward to being here over the next cpl of days, reading all the great posts and the prospects of what might develope storm wise, i guess sth Lincs has a gooda chance as anywhere in the uk.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Probably not the right thread so apologies, but looking at the storm forecast for Bedford shows, for example,dewpoint 20c, cape 2431j/kg and li at -7 (yes i know this will change, but i'm guessing its good if you like storms) So i was wondering what kind of figures to be looking for to get excited about?  

 

I don't think i'm explaining myself very well, but for this amateur those figures look shall i say eye opening.

 

Those figures I'd be getting excited about. All the ingredients for significant thunderstorms, you should be in a good spot especially for late Friday into Saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Probably not the right thread so apologies, but looking at the storm forecast for Bedford shows, for example,dewpoint 20c, cape 2431j/kg and li at -7 (yes i know this will change, but i'm guessing its good if you like storms) So i was wondering what kind of figures to be looking for to get excited about?  

 

I don't think i'm explaining myself very well, but for this amateur those figures look shall i say eye opening.

 

Any time I see a patch of colour on a CAPE/LI chart I get just a little excited...100J/Kg is enough to my juices going, especially after an exceptionally poor year so far for me!

 

But yes you are correct the charts and figures being shown are most definitely eye opening - its not often we see it, perhaps once a year if we're lucky. 

 

It is a very exciting period coming up for many but as ever, it will be at times often a case of nowcasting (i.e radar, satellite and sky watching) in favour of charts. A few models are very good in the short term, but a MCS for example can 'do its own thing', especially if it decides to go walkies and not as per what was forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Unexpected line of very heavy rain here currently, suppose going to the shop will have to wait! :pardon:

That might be with us pretty soon. Looks a short but vigorous beast that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

The actual heat spike or main heat plume seems to have a slightly more western bias? hence a higher risk for more than the usual suspects or whereby some E or SE parts see a storm and others hardly a jot. Either way nowcasting and radar watch is way to go to get a more accurate picture, right up until the wire.

Undoubtedly a nightmare forecast and certainly a challenge for both amateurs and the experts alike. Middle grounders (like me..) can choose to sit back and well enjoy the show :) it's going to be one heck of one for some - sorry ts haters, no offence again, you're really really lucky having our maritime influenced climate :)

Stay safe and above all keep it real.

 

Not as far as the chart below is concerned :D

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley

Usual lack of optimism from me as we have not encountered any decent storms so far this summer.  The peaks and the Sheffield shield always scupper us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

I know that the Netweather forecast is not the most accurate thing by any means, but my lord take a look at that! Hard not to get exited!

 

Loving the atmosphere in this thread at the moment, just hope we can be rewarded! I will certainly be out chasing Friday night and Saturday, good luck to all! 

post-17481-0-49580600-1405521635_thumb.p

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

At least im off this week so perfect chance to go chasing if required im feeling a tad excited too now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

I am so excited  :bomb:  :bomb:  :bomb:  :D

 

I am blooooooooooming terrified!!!!! 

 

â›…             â›…            â›…            â›…

âš¡             âš¡            âš¡            âš¡  

🠠            🄠           ðŸŒ³            ðŸ„

 

That's ALL I think about during thunderstorms!!!!!! EEEEEEEEEEK!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

"Home grown thunderstorms" being specifically mentioned on our regional forecasts....despite the graphics clearly showing activity coming out of France...strange!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/da2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A few Thunderstorms tomorrow night but it's set to really go off Friday night and Saturday with potentially violent storms and disruption.

Courtesy of Alex Deakin on Twitter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Looks great from a Bristol/GFS CAPE point of view for saturday. Looks explosive.

 

post-15744-0-98761600-1405526248_thumb.g

 

 

Edited by Karl83
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Not a lot of differences between the 06z and 12z in positioning of the shortwave. However, the 12z does show the indicators of why the word 'violent' is being used.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...