Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Wivenswold]

I don't want to be teacher in these situations. But can we please remember that some places won't get storms over the next 5 days, every model update should be taken with a small portion of salt and that ultimately we don't live in the best country for huge thunderstorms? I'm pretty excited about the potential but it is just that at the moment "potential". I hate to see people trying to nail the forecast this far out and then start talking in terms of certainty. As we've seen so many times over potential weather events on here, someone will be heading for bitter disappointment.  

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I always look forward to Nick F's convective outlooks, but let's just say, having just looked at the overnight output, I'm REALLY looking forward to it! 

 

 

El Apocalypso is coming!

That almost looked like a quote from Coast 

 

A poster of storm info badly missed on this forum

[Sainsbo]

That's a hell of a lot of CAPE for the SE!

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

That's a hell of a lot of CAPE for the SE!

 

The SE hog all the energy! , I just can't see much potential anymore on Thursday night, just begging for the next GFS run to come out!

[Speedway Slider]

I don't want to be teacher in these situations. But can we please remember that some places won't get storms over the next 5 days, every model update should be taken with a small portion of salt and that ultimately we don't live in the best country for huge thunderstorms? I'm pretty excited about the potential but it is just that at the moment "potential". I hate to see people trying to nail the forecast this far out and then start talking in terms of certainty. As we've seen so many times over potential weather events on here, someone will be heading for bitter disappointment.  

 

What's annoyed me as our local BBC weather has totally blanked us as far as storms are concerned, when only 5 minutes before that, Carol Kirkwood and her graphics depicted the areas at risk to easily cover our region....!

 

Just like a little consistently! Both forecasts from the same organisation...

 

To be honest, I'm terrified of storms, that's why I like a little consistency in forecasts..

[Sainsbo]

The SE hog all the energy! , I just can't see much potential anymore on Thursday night, just begging for the next GFS run to come out!

 

Agreed, Thursday isn't looking great any more, but Saturday is still screaming potential.

 

A westward shift on those CAPE values would be nice.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The SE hog all the energy! , I just can't see much potential anymore on Thursday night, just begging for the next GFS run to come out!

To be fair Ben, the Cape (SB and ML) is closer to you than to me

[Biggin]

That almost looked like a quote from Coast 

 

A poster of storm info badly missed on this forum

Indeed sadly missed Shaping up nicely for the country.

[A.J]

Agreed, Thursday isn't looking great any more, but Saturday is still screaming potential.

 

A westward shift on those CAPE values would be nice.

Got to say bud, I think the total opposite

Here's some snapshots of GFS/NMM hi-res output for overnight thursday into friday

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFS progging decent deep layer shear (chart 1) so potential for organized elevated storms with well seperated updrafts/downdrafts

NMM hi-res modelling high levels of elevated convection with bouyant air parcels (chart 2)

NMM hi-res modelling larger amounts of deep layer shear than GFS (chart 3)

NMM also modelling higher amounts of elevated convection potential than GFS

and lastly, NMM models Strong WAA into southern counties as shown be the plume of theta-e rich air (chart 5)

 

Positively oozes storm potential for this period

[Sainsbo]

Got to say bud, I think the total opposite

Here's some snapshots of GFS/NMM hi-res output for overnight thursday into friday

 

dls.png

 

mlcape and lift.png

 

nmm dls.png

 

overnight cape).png

 

theta e.png

 

GFS progging decent deep layer shear (chart 1) so potential for organized elevated storms with well seperated updrafts/downdrafts

NMM hi-res modelling high levels of elevated convection with bouyant air parcels (chart 2)

NMM hi-res modelling larger amounts of deep layer shear than GFS (chart 3)

NMM also modelling higher amounts of elevated convection potential than GFS

and lastly, NMM models Strong WAA into southern counties as shown be the plume of theta-e rich air (chart 5)

 

Positively oozes storm potential for this period

 

I stand corrected. Thanks for the info

 

Other than the MLCAPE chart, I'm not aware what the others mean, so my statement was based mainly on that chart alone, which didn't look fantastic.

 

I'm not going to complain though, much more to get excited about if there's a risk on Thursday too!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Got to say bud, I think the total opposite

Here's some snapshots of GFS/NMM hi-res output for overnight thursday into friday

 

dls.png

 

mlcape and lift.png

 

nmm dls.png

 

overnight cape).png

 

theta e.png

 

GFS progging decent deep layer shear (chart 1) so potential for organized elevated storms with well seperated updrafts/downdrafts

NMM hi-res modelling high levels of elevated convection with bouyant air parcels (chart 2)

NMM hi-res modelling larger amounts of deep layer shear than GFS (chart 3)

NMM also modelling higher amounts of elevated convection potential than GFS

and lastly, NMM models Strong WAA into southern counties as shown be the plume of theta-e rich air (chart 5)

 

Positively oozes storm potential for this period

Your pores will be oozing sweat with that high a Theta-E, you'll need a storm to take some moisture out of the air

[A.J]

I stand corrected. Thanks for the info

 

Other than the MLCAPE chart, I'm not aware what the others mean, so my statement was based mainly on that chart alone, which didn't look fantastic.

 

I'm not going to complain though, much more to get excited about if there's a risk on Thursday too!

no worries, if it helps, have a look at Nick F's storm set up thread pinned at the top of this sub-forum......very useful tool 

 

here's the link...  http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77200-a-guide-to-thunderstorms-in-the-british-isles/

Your pores will be oozing sweat with that high a Theta-E, you'll need a storm to take some moisture out of the air

you're not wrong! .....stifling is the operative word!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Got to say bud, I think the total opposite

Here's some snapshots of GFS/NMM hi-res output for overnight thursday into friday

 

dls.png

 

mlcape and lift.png

 

nmm dls.png

 

overnight cape).png

 

theta e.png

 

GFS progging decent deep layer shear (chart 1) so potential for organized elevated storms with well seperated updrafts/downdrafts

NMM hi-res modelling high levels of elevated convection with bouyant air parcels (chart 2)

NMM hi-res modelling larger amounts of deep layer shear than GFS (chart 3)

NMM also modelling higher amounts of elevated convection potential than GFS

and lastly, NMM models Strong WAA into southern counties as shown be the plume of theta-e rich air (chart 5)

 

Positively oozes storm potential for this period

Don't get me wrong do these charts look good or am I imagining it?

 

Certainly better than the GFS I must say; good CAPE, shear looks nice like you said. The first latest GFS runs should come out shortly to see what they come up with.

 

Well GFS 6z still keeping everything further eastwards, maybe even further east than the 0z, I'm just hoping NMM is right!

Edited July 16, 2014 by Ben Sainsbury

[vladthemert]

That's a hell of a lot of CAPE for the SE!

 

 

yep we have just mere 1700 on that 

[Mapantz]

The NMM 4km model looks even better, a huge area of MLCAPE, with the highest values around, Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Wiltshire and parts of Hampshire- in excess of 1300 j/Kg. Some parts of Devon and Cornwall being progged 2000 j/Kg >

The TT index isn't too shabby for the south west either... So Friday still holds potential, perhaps a nice elevated display during the early hours?!

[TEITS]

Getting excited at the potential of seeing severe storms. The use of the word "Severe" is often over used on this thread but with the current set up for later this week/weekend, we could genuinely see severe storms.

 

Im not focussing too much yet on the models or the BBC/Met O forecasts because past experience tells me its pointless. I have no doubts there will be winners & losers and sometimes it simply boils down to luck and timing. For example a severe storm could move up from the channel overnight and weaken to leave a band of cloud and rain during the day preventing convection from kicking off.

 

For guidance I shall be following Nick F forecasts. I find these the most accurate and are even better than the Met O. What I like about Nick F isn't just his knowledge but he isn't OTT. I find some websites tend to be too sensational and predict severe storms far too often.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Then again GFS 6z for Saturday looks even more widespread further westwards too?!

 

Saturday looks incredible for ALL of England!

[vladthemert]

Getting excited at the potential of seeing severe storms. The use of the word "Severe" is often over used on this thread but with the current set up for later this week/weekend, we could genuinely see severe storms.

 

Im not focussing too much yet on the models or the BBC/Met O forecasts because past experience tells me its pointless. I have no doubts there will be winners & losers and sometimes it simply boils down to luck and timing. For example a severe storm could move up from the channel overnight and weaken to leave a band of cloud and rain during the day preventing convection from kicking off.

 

For guidance I shall be following Nick F forecasts. I find these the most accurate and are even better than the Met O. What I like about Nick F isn't just his knowledge but he isn't OTT. I find some websites tend to be too sensational and predict severe storms far too often.

 

Apsolutely I think at present we cant at this early stage say where the worst hits I think will shift.    I love those who post like Nick F there insight forecasts.

 

Ben Sainsbury

 

Then again GFS 6z for Saturday looks even more widespread further westwards too?!

 

Saturday looks incredible for ALL of England!

 

 

 

Agreed Meteox even thinks this could run upto next wednesday 

Edited July 16, 2014 by vladthemert

[YokTok]

Where is Coast?

[NL]

Where is Coast?

You'll find him on ukweatherworld.co.uk

 

Defector..!!! LoL

[YokTok]

[Mapantz]

Warnings updated, map now includes eastern Scotland, matrix updated and timings brought forward.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1405724400

'large hail'

Edited July 16, 2014 by Mapantz

[Speedway Slider]

A question, when we, or mainly you all talk about "CAPE" and the lifting of air, is all air equall when it comes to weight? I just imagine a parcel of "DRY" air, would weigh considerably less than a parcel of "MOISTURE RICH" air, which in normal terms and everyday physics would therefore need less energy to lift it? Also, lifting "DRY" air, wouldn't result in convectiveness, because their would be nothing to condense out of the dry air?

 

Am I making any sense?

[Stuart]

at the moment here don't look to good maybe I be missing out here but things could change

[William Grimsley]

The SE hog all the energy! , I just can't see much potential anymore on Thursday night, just begging for the next GFS run to come out!

Unlikely for you anyway, will probably hit here and die out.