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Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

Some folk really need to get a grip on reality. Nature will do what nature wants, wherever and whenever she chooses to do it.

 

I really wouldn't lose any sleep over whether you get a thunderstorm or nothing at all right overhead, it doesn't work like that.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Surprisingly humid start to the day here and we havent even started to import the real juice yet.

 

Would say the charts look quite different today than yesterday, quite significantly actually. Nice to see though some real thundery potential all weekend though at this stage :D

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Surprisingly humid start to the day here and we havent even started to import the real juice yet.

 

Would say the charts look quite different today than yesterday, quite significantly actually. Nice to see though some real thundery potential all weekend though at this stage :D

Yes its looking good for a fair few days for many.

 

Roll on Thursday!

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Yes its looking good for a fair few days for many.

 

Roll on Thursday!

 

Thursday night could be particularly interesting for us if it comes off :) Still twitchy though of last minute changes!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

New thread starting on Thursday.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80884-spanish-plume-anyone-storm-and-convective-discussion-17th-july-onwards/

for the up and coming Plume! have locked it for now and will reopen on Thursday :D In the meantime please continue on  this thread.. Thank you  :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Right, Leicester is NAILED ON for big storm on Thurs/Fri. How do I know this????

 

The Council are cleaning out the roadside gully pots/drains!!!

 

They only ever, ever, ever do this if they're expecting a shed load of rain.......!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

What app is this please??

It's called Amazing Weather HD. It's on Windows Phone 8, so I'm not sure about other platforms.
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I've just had a general flick through some charts, the GFS and 14KM NMM look uninspiring this morning. The GFS shows thundery outbreaks moving in to southern counties somewhere between 9pm and midnight on Thursday, they track northwest. through Friday.

The NMM does the same but has a more westerly bias to to it. Both models however, do show developments pushing up from the south, and tracking north across eastern areas on Saturday.

As ever, radar watching and mesoscale models it will be.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Eye candy, if nothing else.

 

post-15744-0-65649800-1405421784_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

It's a sky watch I would think (and radar watch) the latest GFS runs for up here seem to have toned the energy down completely (although in southern england it looks good for night storms) it will keep chopping and changing I know that

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Crikey, early Meto warning. Thats it guys, expect drizzle this weekend. Lol.

 

But seriously, GFS seems to be edging towards upgrading this hot spell like the other models so we could be looking at a really decent spell of excellent temperatures interspersed with some really good chances for convective activity. Summer at its best. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The met office are certainly showing for the potential for some severe weather on Saturday reading the early warning they've issued

 

Issued at: 1204 on Tue 15 Jul 2014

Valid from: 0300 on Sat 19 Jul 2014

Valid to: 2355 on Sat 19 Jul 2014

 

Areas of heavy, thundery showers may develop over England and Wales from early on Saturday before moving northwards during the day. The development of these is uncertain but where they do form some torrential downpours are possible with frequent lightning, hail and locally strong gusts. Significant flooding is possible where these do occur from surface water as well as small, fast responding watercourses. The frequent lightning, hail and strong gusts could also be an additional hazard. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption from any of these elements. This alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Following a build of very warm and humid air from mid-week onwards there is the potential for the development of large thunderstorms over England and Wales from early on Saturday. In this situation large amounts of energy are available in the atmosphere and this coupled with high moisture content can lead to torrential downpours along with frequent lightning activity, hail and locally strong gusts. In this situation many elements need to come together at the same time to form these thunderstorms and so there remains large uncertainty in their development. This alert is therefore likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

The areas NOT under the warning are

 

Orkney & Shetland

Highlands & Eilean Siar

Grampian

Strathclyde

Central, Tayside & Fife

SW Scotland Lothian Borders

Northern Ireland

 

Also not under the warning is west Wales, Cornwall and parts of Devon

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=uk&fcTime=1405724400

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Developments still look likely in the south on Friday but as I said on Jax' status, that blanket warning has a sniff of easterly bias all over, especially after peering at the charts for Saturday.

Ian F:W COUNTRY, SAT CONTD: Anticipate further refinement to warning area over nxt few days as f'cast detail improves (e.g. emphasis poss to E)

This would be my bet for Saturday (as it stands now)

post-15177-0-03726900-1405426069_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Well we are in with a good chance come friday ,Mother nature could give some of us a spectacular show ,but as stated by most forecasts areas prone at the moment are only broadly covered so dont let us get our hopes up ,just fingers crossed that many of us will see some action .Of course any overnight action to me is the grail ,Fax charts now will become our best guidance but dont expect finer detail untill Thursday .I say bring it on and crack open the STellas , :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

I am no expert but looking current track on meteox the worst rain will miss uk be in north sea .  It may clip kent, north east newcastle way and on return hit scotland.   Best of thunderstorms  look friday and even monday now looking good.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Damn, so Ian expects a recalculation east, which would shift the main thrust of action east of here. Plenty of scope for change either way, but that's not looking too hopeful at this stage. Least the air/conditions will be ripe countrywide. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Crikey, early Meto warning. Thats it guys, expect drizzle this weekend. Lol.

 

 

Don't say that, you'll get told off  :laugh: as they are always spot on! :good:

Well atleast I hope we get some storms and proper ones that last into the early hours, it's been years

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Developments still look likely in the south on Friday but as I said on Jax' status, that blanket warning has a sniff of easterly bias all over, especially after peering at the charts for Saturday.

Ian F:W COUNTRY, SAT CONTD: Anticipate further refinement to warning area over nxt few days as f'cast detail improves (e.g. emphasis poss to E)

This would be my bet for Saturday (as it stands now)

Posted Imageukmap.png

Lets hope not!

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Hope we get some here lincs always misses out on the action *runs for cover* ;-)

Five minutes since your last storm is it? Getting withdrawal symptoms! :p

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Posted
  • Location: Skegness,Lincolnshire
  • Location: Skegness,Lincolnshire

Five minutes since your last storm is it? Getting withdrawal symptoms! :p

Lol to be honest we don't do too well here in skeggy think the sea air kills storms off my friends in horncastle can be updating saying what a cracking storm they having and it dies before getting here so I've got my fingers crossed we get some action this weekend. Cloudy here at the minute but starting to feel muggy
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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Developments still look likely in the south on Friday but as I said on Jax' status, that blanket warning has a sniff of easterly bias all over, especially after peering at the charts for Saturday.

Ian F:W COUNTRY, SAT CONTD: Anticipate further refinement to warning area over nxt few days as f'cast detail improves (e.g. emphasis poss to E)

This would be my bet for Saturday (as it stands now)

Posted Imageukmap.png

The latest ECMWF precip chart for Saturday shows a very westerly bias, with all the rain travelling up the west side of the country.

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