Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Daniel*]

Some tipsy people in here From the 12z GFS pour friday, southern england is most at threat early on, as the day progress the thunderstorm potential transfers northwards, MCS I have a distinct hunch some action to keep us entertained - temps, dps look ripe for explosive action. Some summer heat is finally on the way... I hope it goes the way we want it.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I actually cancelled a social event for Thursday, even though it is in a pub.

 

Used work as an excuse, but the main reason is if I am unable to drive and this thing kicks off nearby I wouldn't be able to forgive myself. Also when storms are due (or even a remote possibility) I find it hard to concentrate on other things.

 

Already planning chase supplies: I have two cranberry and vodka drinks for my chase and a gin and tonic (only 1 is for me - the other two are for my gf to keep her happy if she wants to come chasing). I have enormous storm patience but she gets bored easily when there's no lightning...

 

Also last time I took a pack of mini scotch eggs and beef hula hoops as a snack, amongst other things. Had no storms that night but I ate like a king!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Watch this all downgrade into a single celled fart somewhere off the Kent coast....with someone trying to justify the day as a success/not a bust because 10mm of frontal rain has fallen and created a couple of 2cm deep puddles. Too good to be true in my book lol. Me, negative?! Never!

Edited July 14, 2014 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

Now this would have been a Carol Kirkwood humdinger.

[Harry]

Watch this all downgrade into a single celled fart somewhere off the Kent coast....with someone trying to justify the day as a success/not a bust because 10mm of frontal rain has fallen and created a couple of 2cm deep puddles. Too good to be true in my book lol. Me, negative?! Never!

At least it's only 3-4 days away and not the usual 7-10 day FI!!! :DLet's hope for similar patterns to show in the coming days and for no early MetO yellow warnings Edited July 14, 2014 by Harry

[Cloud 10]

Now this would have been a Carol Kirkwood humdinger.

 

Sounds like quite a day on Teesside.

 

http://rememberwhen.gazettelive.co.uk/2008/07/the_dark_day_tuesday_july_2_19.html

[Mapantz]

Cortana knows how unlucky I am..

[Evening thunder]

Now this would have been a Carol Kirkwood humdinger.

 

I had literally just been looking at that chart in the archives then came here to see it posted!

 

has to be near the top as far as plumes go.. that temp contrast! One of the 50 most intense hailstorms recorded in Britain since 1650 tracked from Start Point (south Devon), to Newton Abbot (Devon) on the 2nd.  On the 1st (perhaps in the evening before midnight) another of the 50 most intense hailstorms tracked from Exbridge (Devon) to Tredegar (Gwent) 

 

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/50hail.php

 

Presumably that first one must have been from a very intense elevated storm that crossed/formed over the channel.

Also on the next chart the 0C isotherm is over SW England and Brittany, so for some a 20C drop in 850hpa temps in 24 hours (22C drop in part of Brittany). Not sure we've quite had that range yet this year.. lol.

 

 

Funnily enough 9 days later on the 11th this area had severe floods, the largest recorded to date on some rivers by a big margin.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Evening thunder

[lassie23]

I am VERY CONFIDENT that many people will see storms this week/weekend! If they don't materialize, I will ban myself from the MOD thread!

[Harry]

Look up in the archives 24 June 1994, which a whopper of an MCS across the SE

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5T3NaLp_AC4

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MTLTnz-g57g

Would be nice later this week

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for Saturday looks thundery.

 

[liambailey09]

Look up in the archives 24 June 1994, which a whopper of an MCS across the SEhttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5T3NaLp_AC4https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MTLTnz-g57gWould be nice later this week

I've watched these videos plenty of times, I would have been 4 months old! The charts for this week don't look too dissimilar either which is promising 

[Greeny]

Will it be an MCS Thunderstorm or an MCS blunderstorm? Tune in live this Thursday to find out.. Only on netweather.tv!

Edited July 14, 2014 by Greenday

[saint]

I have a funeral to go to on Friday morning.... Poor timing it would seem!

[Weatherbimbo]

Hi everyone, as I have explained before I am a complete armature

I am already getting excited about the potential for stormed in the coming days.

Now all these charts and lingo I get a bit lost in, I'm in somerset. Am I in a good spot or is it all going to brew over me then move on?

Local weather didn't really offer much tonight.

Amateur **

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

These charts do spell to me some possibly explosive conditions. GFS is a slight upgrade on the 18z aswell. 

I'm really looking forward to this event, should it happen!! A very close eye will be kept from now. At least it has remained within the semi-reilable to reliable time frame now. 

I definitely think we shall see at least 'Something' from this 

[Sprites]

 

Used work as an excuse, but the main reason is if I am unable to drive and this thing kicks off nearby I wouldn't be able to forgive myself. Also when storms are due (or even a remote possibility) I find it hard to concentrate on o I have enormous storm patience but she gets bored easily when there's no lightning...

 

Also last time I took a pack of mini scotch eggs and beef hula hoops as a snack, amongst other things.

And if you get bored after eating that, there will be time to blow dead pig and cow flavoured burps at your gf..

[Mapantz]

Saturday could also be a second round for some, my app likes this too.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Mapantz

[lassie23]

Very sultry night in London 19c and that is in the suburbs! Hard to sleep and the heatwave hasn't even arrived!

Edited July 14, 2014 by lassie23

[Hirudine]

Very sultry night in London 19c and that is in the suburbs! Hard to sleep and the heatwave hasn't even arrived!

You big southern jessie! I've got a cardi on!

[lassie23]

You big southern jessie! I've got a cardi on!

You wear cardis!

[Hirudine]

You wear cardis!

 

It does the job

[lassie23]

It does the job

I'm sure you look very nice in a cardi! Still 19C out! I think you will do pretty well this week with storms/heat! If the Spanish plume starts wondering off eastwards, you may still get clipped by it!

[Convective]

I'd like to bank this please...

 

 

 

[Hirudine]

I'm sure you look very nice in a cardi! Still 19C out! I think you will do pretty well this week with storms/heat! If the Spanish plume starts wondering off eastwards, you may still get clipped by it!

 

Dunno about nice, I've nearly worn through the elbow! ;p 

 

Heat I'll deffo do well for, but we'll have to wait and see on the storm front- the Beeb forecast today showed it just missing us. Any further west and I'll definitely be out of a chance.