Storm and convective discussion 7th July Onwards

[Cloud 10]

Quite a large clear slot across the middle of the country with temperatures in parts of the 

Midlands already up to 25c,so more energy available (potentially) than was forecast.

 

[johnholmes]

To give a bit of guidance to anyone new to this fascinating part of meteorology. Take a look at the 3 dimensional 'picture' of the atmosphere for central England at 00z this morning. It is the skew-t for Watnall (close by Nottingham)

For a better understanding of the basics on this go to the Net Wx Guide see below

 

 

Below is the actual sounding with the dewpoint and max temperature expected over much of inland eastern and central England. (sorry about the rubbish drawing but windows 7 and ms paint are even worse than with XP) it shows that tops way up can be expected once the values of T and Td are reached (already at these values in my back garden). I would imagine that the storms are more like to be scattered than either isolated or frequent (personal experience but I may be wrong!). The amount of energy available, often given by the GFS/Extra model(s) is the area between the black right hand line (T) and the red line I have plotted which is the probable likely path of a bubble of air lifted from the surface with the T and Td values mentioned above.

 

sod it cannot find the damn thing now, another 'improvement' so called in windows 7

 

found it at last

 

this link gives the site, click on Europe, then skew-t and watnall= no 354

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=07&FROM=1200&TO=1200&STNM=03354

 

skew-t guide

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/16002-a-simple-guide-to-understanding-skew-t-diagrams/

Edited July 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[A.J]

Some nice towers going up here now....currently 24.3c feeling very humid

[Harry]

Blue skies here now and temperature rapidly responding

[Costa Del Fal]

25.5c here so one of the warmest in the country. Not expecting anything thundery today though.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not expecting anything here in Great Yarmouth unless we get something overnight. Can see cloud building inland but here we have a gentle onshore breeze, temperatures have stabilised around 21C.

[johnholmes]

Watch for minor convergence zones developing in the light wind flow close to the surface, sea breezes etc, and especially if near higher ground, maybe Lincs Wolds/ Northampton uplands etc?

 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited July 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[Mapantz]

Not to be used as sole guidance but two very different looking precipitation charts indicating how random and hit & miss it will be.

I'm quite surprised how different they look if I'm honest.

Edited July 12, 2014 by Mapantz

[Supacell]

I look to be too far west in Derby, despite the fact the sun has been out all morning and temperatures are up around 25c currently. This is ok though as I have my car, camera and tablet ready to head east this afternoon. Lincolnshire is usually a safe bet.

[lassie23]

26.9c in London! Got a weather warning for something or other, later in the evening!

[William Grimsley]

Well, it looks like the BBC cocked up again. Their forecasts show rain moving in and guess what, there is no rain whatsoever and no showers/thunderstorms. That's not a rarity. 

Edited July 12, 2014 by William Grimsley

[alibabba]

Sat in york this morning heat and humidity were unbelievable on way back to skeggy now yearning for the sea breeze lots of cloud bubbling up around here

[William Grimsley]

Sat in york this morning heat and humidity were unbelievable on way back to skeggy now yearning for the sea breeze lots of cloud bubbling up around here

Got one here but not doing much effect.

[Mapantz]

A nice graphic courtesy of Dan Holley on Twitter.

Rough schematic of where showers and thunderstorms will be at what time through this afternoon/evening:

[Dami]

If that graphic is correct, looks like i'll be developing the clouds and sending them on  their merry little way.

Edited July 12, 2014 by Dami

[Mokidugway]

Suns out again ,some alt cas to my west ,very warm too

[Eye to the sky]

Skies have turned hazy here now with some dark clouds starting to bubble up,wouldn't be surprised if we got shower later.Very warm too with temps around 24 degrees.

[vladthemert]

A nice graphic courtesy of Dan Holley on Twitter.

Rough schematic of where showers and thunderstorms will be at what time through this afternoon/evening:

Screenshot_2014-07-12-14-12-17.png

 

thanks there is cloud developing off coast here now

[GlennP]

Thick mist and murk rolled in off the sea Vladthemert, vis is pretty bad down Cleethorpes sea front

Regards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Lovely towers shooting up right outside my window :-)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm happy with towers shooting up. Anything else shooting up outside my window I would probably call the police

[paul m]

Just had a few heavy drops of rain here. Bodes well for those further East  

[Wimbledon88]

I'm happy with towers shooting up. Anything else shooting up outside my window I would probably call the police

   

[vladthemert]

Thick mist and murk rolled in off the sea Vladthemert, vis is pretty bad down Cleethorpes sea frontRegards

 

ah thanks never thought that 

[Mokidugway]

Cloud rolling in now,looks like BBQ is buggered!!.....