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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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Summer's been perfect so far, 23/24c and nice warm skies with a breeze - perfect. Above charts are the most horrific kind of weather possible. Too hot to move or excersize without dehydration, sweating too much that you smell like a farm or even sleeping at night without needing to change the sheets daily. Horrid. Give me -25 over +25. 

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PRHW14 is the new upgrade to GFS which is currently being tested, I believe - has been for a few months.  I've been keeping my eye on the stats recently and while a couple of months ago it seemed to have similar performance to GFS, it seems to have upped it's game recently.

 

The ECM's poor recent day 10 verification stats were commented on in here over the last couple of days, but it's rather gone under the radar that at day 10 PRHW14 has performed best by some distance recently for the northern hemisphere:

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thanks for that, interesting and a model to watch over the coming weeks and months to see how it continues to perform

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What a fantastic hot and humid chart this is for weather fans who love the heat.....

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What a fantastic hot and humid chart this is for weather fans who love the heat.....

I feel the plumes acomming !!.... Edited by Mokidugway
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What a fantastic hot and humid chart this is for weather fans who love the heat.....

It is indeed, but remember that pressure is fairly slack so convection will be a key in the factor. Indeed, gfs and ecm show plumes of heat and thunderstorms across the uk , into next week and convective cloud will be a factor so will inhibit  any heat. Certainly a messy forecast , but for heat and storm lovers, looks great and good for the Gardeners too.....

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As we approach the start of what I call 'high summer' - roughly about 15th July to 12th August when the UK normally expects to see its 'hottest' weather of the year, bang on cue the models are showing some proper heat developing from the south as we move through next week, all thanks to the jet taking a more northerly trajectory allowing heights to build out of the azores high into France advecting those warm uppers our way.

 

They are painting a classic southerly plume scenario with low heights developing to the SW as the atlantic trough is disrupted against the strong heights to the east, hence a distinct possibility of shortlived very warm/hot spell with a thundery breakdown and the return of the atlantic and more average conditions thereafter - the reason a shortlived plume scenario has strong chance of developing is due to the very strong heights to our NE which will act to force atlantic trough to disrupt - this is shown nicely in the Jetstream forecasts which after a few days of showing a northerly jet pattern trajectory quickly show it turning southerly again as it heads across our southern UK shores.

 

So whilst the models are suggesting the first proper heat of the summer (more for the SE quarter of the UK), they are also showing a shortlived heatfest and no sign of any prolonged - the trough always seems destined to anchor itself over us this summer squeezed into position by strong heights both to the SW and more so NE.

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GEM also showing some very warm air coming in next week every chance of hitting 30c next week as things stand

 

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This looks like one of them classic old school setups with 3 days or so of 30c+. But then ending in a spectacular burst of violent storms !! Lets hope they keep it up like this until the end of the weekend at least :D

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This looks like one of them classic old school setups with 3 days or so of 30c+. But then ending in a spectacular burst of violent storms !! Lets hope they keep it up like this until the end of the weekend at least :D

Let's hope the ECM and GEM operationals are on the money with a very complicated breakdown with pulses of thundery rain pushing northward with hot sunshine in between. Been too long since we got a proper big imports :)

 

ECM ens are pretty much the same as this morning really, but again many members holding onto the warmth out to day 10 at least. But certainly doe hint at the Atlantic getting back in during the middle/later part of week 2. Though it's too far way to worry about at the moment. 

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So Monday is the fresher day with the Azores high starting to ridge in, Tuesday is the cloudier/muggy day as the warm air starts to push in. Wednesday-Friday look look the hot days with temperatures in the high twenties/maybe low thirties with some isolated thundery downpours. Following weekend, some sort of breakdown, but how that occurs depends on many factors and it's too far away to have any real confidence.

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Good to see the latest 12z model runs following the gospel according to gottolovethisweather - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80760-model-output-discussion-3062014-onwards-covering-july/?p=2998804

 

Yes, granted we have yet to get to said timeframe, but the interesting synoptics are looking much more likely than they might have done a few days ago. Maybe not a HP sitting atop the UK scenario quite yet but with humid air and Thunderstorms quite probable in spite of the higher pressure readings as is the wont of a traditional UK Summertime period. D8 to D10 (Mid-July) is the key timeframe now as to what unfolds thereafter, will the heat continue into the final ten days of July?

 

Further to yesterday's update, today's late afternoon and early evening runs looking good.

 

Slowly slowly catchy monkey, a fascinating spell of weather forthcoming IMHO. High Temps, High Humidities and potential for High-level lightning shows into Mid-July, PERFECT!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Looking at the ECm Hres for the weekend and quite a complex situation weather wise. wouldn't like to put any detail on it at the moment although Saturday looks a if it could be interesting in the eastern part of the country. Sunday looks like average temps with an upper westerly flow.

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Edited by knocker

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Still looking good next week, especially Thursday and Friday as we pull very warm air up from the continent.

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Week 2 looks interesting as a fairly potent low develops to the west/south west of the UK. With the Euro/Scandi ridge in place this could mean some fun and games. The trough breaks through on all models around day 9/10, but from experience if this deep trough develops then it will probably struggle a lot more than is currently suggested.

ECM for example for this low

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This morning's runs now sharpening up on the longevity of the transient ridge. As suspected GEM were overdoing this and it is now a two day affair:

 

D5: post-14819-0-53919700-1405059734_thumb.p  D7: post-14819-0-17735500-1405059746_thumb.p

 

This is now more inline with GFS 2-3 day rise in pressure and now ECMpost-14819-0-27228500-1405060631_thumb.g post-14819-0-71088500-1405060644_thumb.g

 

The plume (say 12c+ uppers) remains more substantive, so though pressure falls, temps look to remain high. GEM has 12c uppers from T90 to T228, and at their most widespread at T168:

 

post-14819-0-70776400-1405060061_thumb.p This again ties in nicely with the GFS op and mean although the latter doesn't push the +12c as far north (Hull down to Bristol).

 

So Wednesday to Saturday look very warm/hot for the SE and other areas next week. Shorter term there is a front(s) moving east on Sunday in the westerly flow with rainfall: 

 

post-14819-0-35327700-1405061039_thumb.g  And Monday a small LP running through the NW bringing rain: post-14819-0-51216000-1405061080_thumb.g

 

The 8-14 Day NOAA confirms what GFS has been showing for a while, that Lower pressure sits to the W/NW of us in FI and we have a period of closer to average temps as the UK is bound by a trough:

 

post-14819-0-49109800-1405060406_thumb.g  GFS Mean @T204: post-14819-0-04500400-1405060430_thumb.p  T384: post-14819-0-04815600-1405060453_thumb.p

 

ECM and GEM have variations on amplification of the breakdown, GFS is the flattest, ECM the more amplified, GEM in between:

 

post-14819-0-71384400-1405061321_thumb.p  post-14819-0-10670700-1405061860_thumb.g

 

So where the LP stalls after the ridge edges east (timing issues on the GEFS re that) could dictate our weather for the following 3-5 days (D8+). The D10 for ECM and GEM are clearly after the Lord Mayors Show:

 

post-14819-0-69012200-1405061928_thumb.g post-14819-0-86516600-1405061940_thumb.p

 

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Pretty much the same as we've had for a few runs now a very warm day tomorrow for most of England 2 exceptions are the south west and north west where temperatures here are high teens low 20's else where mid 20's possible 28c somewhere heavy thundery showers developing during the afternoon as the heat builds an area of more persistent rain for NW Scotland and Northern Ireland

 

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By Sunday we have temperatures back around average for all, showers more isolated still the odd heavy one for some and a lower risk of thunder

 

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A similar day on Monday temps maybe a degree or two higher for some southern parts rain moving in from the west during the day no risk of thunder

 

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By Tuesday temperatures are starting to rise bar the odd isolated light shower Tuesday looks mostly dry for England and Wales again no risk of Thunder

 

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By Wednesday the heat really starts to build every chance of hitting 30c in the south isolated showers some heavy and thundery as the heat builds

 

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Another hot day on Thursday for parts of the south close to 30c again heavy thundery showers widely

 

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Friday again sees temps around the 30c mark in the south with thundery showers though not as widespread

 

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It's funny that this year the western side of uk has done quite well for sunshine and storms , absence of a strong Atlantic I suppose ,the Saturday breakdown looks to be a week affair at best ,and then a reload of some nice heat and storm potential ,bring it on !!...

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It looks like the GFS 12z sends the main pulse of heat too far east to affect the UK. But given this mornings offerings, a spell of heat cant be ruled out yet. Despite not reaching the upper 20s the GFS still has a decent very warm and humid spell lasting much of next week. It wont be completely dry however with rain likely to affect northern Britain at first and then southern parts later on in the week. Still very acceptable high summer conditions.

 

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UKMO looks decent this afternoon

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Better than this morning with the temperatures rising by the latter half of the week.

 

GFS is not so hot

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The Atlantic profile looks very flat with the jet blowing on a wsw axis, hopefully this is a blip as whilst still warm, it is a little underwhelming. I know the models have a habit of over amplifying patterns, but this looks too far the other way to be honest.

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indeed milhouse, the downgrade has begun! by monday the hot spell wont exist...  just like all the other hot spells the models predicted in fi this season.

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indeed milhouse, the downgrade has begun! by monday the hot spell wont exist...  just like all the other hot spells the models predicted in fi this season.

 

If anything the downgrades have gone the other way this summer- unsettled weather has tended to be pushed back to the point that it doesn't actually happen in the end. It's one run and the GFS has been more keen than the other models to make the heat miss us.

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Big changes on the GFS 12z with significant downgrading of the plume, with the 12c barely glancing the south coast. Comparison of uppers from the 06z and 12z:

 

06z: post-14819-0-11273900-1405095916_thumb.p 12z: post-14819-0-72641200-1405095926_thumb.p

 

The pressure build has also continued to taper off with heights just about breaking 1017hPa North of Birmingham. So by next weekend LP moving in from the NW:

 

post-14819-0-58428100-1405096066_thumb.p  UKMO more like the 0z runs: post-14819-0-05042600-1405096157_thumb.g

 

As is GEM. Compare T108 with the flatter 12z GFS

 

GFS: post-14819-0-96664700-1405096250_thumb.p  GEM: post-14819-0-98917900-1405096279_thumb.p

 

Hopefully GFS hasn't spotted a trend. GFS in FI is again unsettled.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Having studied the GFS 12Z run more closely, on the positive side Monday and Tuesday actually look warmer than on previous runs. Wednesday onwards is still a long way off but I'd be very surprised if we missed out on some heat completely looking at the probable setup.

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Wednesday and Thursday still has temperatures in the mid to high 20's for a large area of England possibly 30c for some parts of the south

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Before that we have heat building in tomorrow could see 28c somewhere in the east thundery showers breaking out as the heat and humidity builds tomorrow afternoon

 

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Sunday and Monday sees temps back around average

 

Tuesday sees temperatures on the rise once more bar the odd isolated shower it looks mostly dry way from Ireland and NW Scotland

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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