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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - 30/6/2014 Onwards - Covering July.

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Looking at tomorrow, it appears that we will have an east-west split, with western areas seeing the best of the weather.

 

Western Britain looks like it will be in for another fine Summer's day with temperatures widely in the low to mid-twenties. In the east however it will feel much more Autumnal with some very poor temperatures (mainly in the low to mid teens) and some potentially very heavy rain, therefore making it a very miserable day in these areas.

 

Quite a large contrast tomorrow.

And pretty much what was shown on GFS last weekend!

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And pretty much what was shown on GFS last weekend!

 

indeed - gfs the best model for tomorrow from last weekend. some of the offerings from the other, more lauded output, almost embarassing at such a timeframe.

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indeed - gfs the best model for tomorrow from last weekend. some of the offerings from the other, more lauded output, almost embarassing at such a timeframe.

Totally agree bluearmy , iv been really fascinated this summer by the charts on offer rarely coming off , iv got to be honest with this and it has to be said the ECM ever since the 'upgrade' has been an utter shambles , I'm not sure what happened hear but it really has failed to live up the fine reputation it has/had , really think the programmers need to think seriously about rewriting its software if at all possible because if this continues into the winter season for the second year then it's gonna be in for some serious stick .
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Certainly an east west split tomorrow for temperatures

 

Posted Image

 

The rain band is fairly narrow but for those under it, it looks slow moving with some heavy rain at times

 

Posted Image

 

Isolated showers on Friday for England and Wales some heavy still but warmer for all

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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GFS mean

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Again showing signs of something very warm pushing towards our shores. I do get the feeling that we do have a good chance next week with regards to some proper mid-summer weather. Could the 30C mark be broken next week? Certainly possible.

I think the temperature predictions under the rainfall look a little low to me for tomorrow. Though I do find the fact that for my region that the warmest place will be the east coast despite having a north/north easterly wind to be rather amusing.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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but warmer for all

 

 

 

Certainly a big increase in dew-points as we head towards the weekend,so feeling much more

humid than of late.

 

 

 

Helen Willets used the phrase "big thunderstorms" on a broadcast earlier. :D

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Good to see the latest 12z model runs following the gospel according to gottolovethisweather - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80760-model-output-discussion-3062014-onwards-covering-july/?p=2998804

 

Yes, granted we have yet to get to said timeframe, but the interesting synoptics are looking much more likely than they might have done a few days ago. Maybe not a HP sitting atop the UK scenario quite yet but with humid air and Thunderstorms quite probable in spite of the higher pressure readings as is the wont of a traditional UK Summertime period. D8 to D10 (Mid-July) is the key timeframe now as to what unfolds thereafter, will the heat continue into the final ten days of July?

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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So 12 hours on, the GFS and GEM still stick to their own solution. No idea what the UKMO is doing though.

GFS

 

Classic south westerly scenario, very warm in the south east with sunny spells, wind and rain for the north west.

 

GEM

 

More amplified, again a classic summer set-up, the high builds east of the UK drawing up a hot southerly plume going into week 2. 30C territory for a few days on this run.

 

UKMO

 

Doesn't look right to me as the upstream low doesn't phase with the low near Iceland. Though the end game would probably be the same, except unsettled weather probably further south for a time before heights build northwards.

 

Hi

 

I am impressed by GEM's amplified op runs but they are not supported by it's mean, that is much closer to the GFS.

 

The GEM 12z op: post-14819-0-74618200-1404925545_thumb.p Mean 0z: post-14819-0-75927900-1404925584_thumb.p Control 0z: post-14819-0-64239300-1404925597_thumb.p

 

The control is closer to the mean and more like the GFS, ie SW/NE split. GFS isn't bad so even if the GEM op is overdoing it a warm/hot spell may be incoming for the favoured for several days.

 

As for UKMO they have been showing negative height bias for sometime so they do come up with runs that over do the lower pressure:

 

post-14819-0-27997400-1404926326_thumb.p Probably the 12z a case in point.

 

No real changes from this morning from GFS op, with the transient ridge lasting about 3-4 days next week, followed by pressure slowly lowering in FI, though the south does benefit from transient short wave ridging on occasions, in that predominantly westerly flow. The London ens highlight this:

 

post-14819-0-73965600-1404928589_thumb.g

 

For sure no sign of prolonged HP in situ over the UK for the last third of July. This is all subject to change bearing in mind GFS still going for another Typhoon in week 2 (ECM still not) and the net effect of that is the PV is squeezed over to the western side of the NH promoting a flatter more zonal upstream flow:

 

post-14819-0-74311100-1404928156_thumb.p  

 

ECM 12z showing  2-3 days of a pressure rise from the Azores with associated plume for the south/se:

 

D6 post-14819-0-29061800-1404931331_thumb.g D7 post-14819-0-84457400-1404931343_thumb.g  By D8: post-14819-0-97401000-1404931383_thumb.g D9: post-14819-0-03211200-1404931870_thumb.g

 

Lower pressure then edging back from D8. Subtle changes from this morning's run.

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Plenty of storm potential from the ecm..........

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ECM ens

 

Posted Image

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Good agreement with the GFS ens from earlier. Good support for a classic British summer feat. A few very warm or even hot days before a thundery breakdown. Given the ensembles keep the warm air hanging on, I suspect there are quite a few members which go for something of the GEM longevity which would be great, especially those who have missed out so far on the very warm conditions.

Either way next week is shaping up to be pretty interesting.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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ECM ens

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Good agreement with the GFS ens from earlier. Good support for a classic British summer feat. A few very warm or even hot days before a thundery breakdown. Given the ensembles keep the warm air hanging on, I suspect there are quite a few members which go for something of the GEM longevity which would be great, especially those who have missed out so far on the very warm conditions.

Either way next week is shaping up to be pretty interesting.

Actually, this could turn into quite a prolonged warm spell starting as early as Friday. The synoptics can be a bit misleading because at this time of the year, once heat gets in, it needs a good shove to get rid of it. We're looking at D9 before there's even a chance of that happening. Possibly 25C being exceeded somewhere on 7 consecutive days then, and maybe over 28C next week. Though in the balance for northern areas - Scotland may miss much of this.
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Turn of the GFS to throw a plume event with a thundery breakdown

Posted Image

 

Interestingly the ECM moves more to it's ensembles by extending the fine and very warm spell with a slow breakdown appearing around day 10

Posted Image

Perhaps some thundery showers developing beforehand though.

 

GEM

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Slightly different in evolution but still brings fine and very warm/hot conditions next week. Again thunderstorms possible later in the output.

 

UKMO looks a lot better today too

Posted Image

 

It does look like we will see a traditional British summer spell next week, it's longevity and potency still up for debate, but a good chance of temperatures reaching the mid/high twenties widely and perhaps getting towards the 30C mark in lucky spots.

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Actually, this could turn into quite a prolonged warm spell starting as early as Friday. The synoptics can be a bit misleading because at this time of the year, once heat gets in, it needs a good shove to get rid of it. We're looking at D9 before there's even a chance of that happening. Possibly 25C being exceeded somewhere on 7 consecutive days then, and maybe over 28C next week. Though in the balance for northern areas - Scotland may miss much of this.

 

 

Looking at the Fax for Sunday & Monday with an Atlantic flow and a cold front moving through I would be pleasantly surprised if temps reached 25c on those days:

 

Sunday: post-14819-0-55533000-1404975702_thumb.g   Monday: post-14819-0-86078900-1404975710_thumb.g

 

The upcoming warm spell is again not a UK wide event with areas like N.Wales probably average at best as a whole; it has been the nature of this Summer.

 

NOAA 8-14 has not really changed: post-14819-0-27651800-1404976044_thumb.g

 

It continues to indicate that the ridge is transient. However yesterday models suggested 2-4 days, today maybe 3-5 on the 0z output. GEM is now charting closer to GFS and ECM. The latter has pressure building through D5 and retreating through D9:

 

post-14819-0-04317300-1404976231_thumb.g post-14819-0-35245400-1404976241_thumb.g

 

Some warm possible hot (very far S/SE) temps for 3-4 days in favoured areas with storm potential, though across the Channel looks very high risk for TS on a couple of days next week:

 

Uppers: ECM post-14819-0-43172200-1404976497_thumb.g  GFS post-14819-0-41147400-1404976538_thumb.p  Timing differences re the plume max.

 

UKMO back on track: post-14819-0-99775100-1404976620_thumb.g  post-14819-0-57160400-1404976630_thumb.g

 

Being in the SE an interesting spell upcoming. The further NW the temps move closer to average. All models by D10 have the breakdown showing (at the moment) but for the SE that is simply returning to closer to average temps. No washouts in FI showing, and only background noise for a further pressure build (includes Control).

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Saturday and Wednesday gets very close to hitting 30c in the south very warm widely for England and Wales

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

With the humid air moving in during tomorrow Saturday could see an increased risk of some heavy thundery showers breaking out just about anywhere as the heat builds

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun

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Yes an interesting weekend coming up with heavy convective showers, And a good chance of Storms across the Midlands South. Wednesday looks very promising, With some locally "hot" temps in the South adding to the ingredients.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Yep, after a slight cool down across the south on Sunday and Monday good to see the charts showing a trough begin to slow to the west, which drags in very warm air from the S/SW, with temperatures heading back up again - perhaps towards the high 20s by Weds and increasing risk of thunderstorms.

 

It seems we are finally losing the influence of the Azores high close to the SW, which has kept us in predominantly in a W to NW flow recently and kept any real warmth at bay, bar the odd day. Always the danger that an Atlantic low pressure train will take over, with the jet still ploughing quite far south into western Europe and low pressure close to the UK.

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Widespread warmth looking possible on Saturday given the humid air thundery showers could breakout anywhere more so during the afternoon

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Fresher on Sunday still the chance of some thundery showers but they look more isolated to the SE some heavy showers developing in the east during the afternoon

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Monday again sees some fresher temps but still around average for most some isolated showers but these look lighter not much risk of thunder

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

By Tuesday the heat begins to build in again Isolated showers developing with the heat in the afternoon possibly thundery

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The heat builds even more on Wednesday becoming hot for the south isolated showers developing some could be thundery

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Hot again in the south on Thursday with temperatures edging closer to 30c thundery showers developing with the heat

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Totally agree bluearmy , iv been really fascinated this summer by the charts on offer rarely coming off , iv got to be honest with this and it has to be said the ECM ever since the 'upgrade' has been an utter shambles , I'm not sure what happened hear but it really has failed to live up the fine reputation it has/had , really think the programmers need to think seriously about rewriting its software if at all possible because if this continues into the winter season for the second year then it's gonna be in for some serious stick .

 

that i cant agree with shaun. which upgrade anyway?  the last one was the ens not the op. and i'd still take its output over gfs days 5 through 8. the stats back that up aswell. taking the current period, last week gfs was persistent in pushing the heights northeast across us whereas ecm picked up the trough coming around the atlantic ridge and pushing se across us. ignoring the detail, as you must do with charts post day 6, the ecm is always a better bet imo for general guidance. 

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that i cant agree with shaun. which upgrade anyway?  the last one was the ens not the op. and i'd still take its output over gfs days 5 through 8. the stats back that up aswell. taking the current period, last week gfs was persistent in pushing the heights northeast across us whereas ecm picked up the trough coming around the atlantic ridge and pushing se across us. ignoring the detail, as you must do with charts post day 6, the ecm is always a better bet imo for general guidance. 

 

would agree with EC ahead at 500mb for the northern hemisphere at both day 5 and 6 with UK Met usually second?

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

It would be unusual for any model to be better at the surface if it was not at 500mb.

 

who or what is prhw 14?

Edited by johnholmes

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would agree with EC ahead at 500mb for the northern hemisphere at both day 5 and 6 with UK Met usually second?

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

It would be unusual for any model to be better at the surface if it was not at 500mb.

 

who or what is prhw 14?

 

PRHW14 is the new upgrade to GFS which is currently being tested, I believe - has been for a few months.  I've been keeping my eye on the stats recently and while a couple of months ago it seemed to have similar performance to GFS, it seems to have upped it's game recently.

 

The ECM's poor recent day 10 verification stats were commented on in here over the last couple of days, but it's rather gone under the radar that at day 10 PRHW14 has performed best by some distance recently for the northern hemisphere:

Posted Image

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